Expires:201602232100;;131385
FPUS51 KBTV 231109
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
607 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016


VTZ006-232100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
607 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SLEET LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. EAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201602231200;;132296
ASUS41 KBTV 231130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      11   3  70 NE5       30.40R WCI   3          
MONTPELIER     FAIR       5   1  83 CALM      30.40R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       5  -1  76 CALM      30.41R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      3  -3  76 MISG      30.41R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       0  -4  85 CALM      30.39R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    18   7  62 SE7       30.36R WCI   8          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      14   9  80 CALM      30.42R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       7   1  76 CALM      30.41S                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW   1  -3  86 CALM      30.40R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      16  12  84 VRB3      30.32R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      9 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     16  10  79 NE2         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     19  10  68 NE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;131836
FXUS61 KBTV 231115
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
615 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, BUT WILL
BECOME VERY UNSETTLED AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BREWING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
ACROSS THE AREA AS A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT, BUT
TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL END WITH A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE PULLING AWAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE JUST TO TWEAK TEMPS AND
SKY TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 342 AM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY
BEFORE THINGS GET MESSY TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE 30S. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHERE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT, STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEGINS TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING WELL AHEAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL PRESENT TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW TO START THE EVENT WITH SOME SLEET POSSIBLY MIXING IN, BUT
OVERALL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH QPF ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND
JUST A DUSTING TO INCH OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. MORE
ON THIS STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 AM EST TUESDAY...AIR MASS STARTS OUT ON THE DRY SIDE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK...THUS FEEL ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE TAKING PLACE SO WE ARE STILL ON TRACK
TO SEE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT MIX AND THEN MOST AREAS
GOING TO LIGHT RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE
TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS. BELOW THIS GRADIENT WILL BE A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NEW YORK.
THIS SHOULD KEEP COLDER AIR IN PLACE AND ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN
THE GREATER DURATION OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL BE
THE LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AREA GETS IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. IF
ANYTHING THEY WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TRACK UP INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. THUS
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAIN EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EST TUESDAY...COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
ALSO DEVELOPS AND THUS LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COULD EASILY SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE COMING TO AN END LATER ON FRIDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE REGION TO BRING A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THIS MORNING, BUT MAIN IDEA FROM 06Z TAFS
STILL HOLDS TRUE WITH INCREASING VFR MID/HIGH DECK EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. AFTER
00Z, CIGS LOWER TOWARDS BKN-OVC050, AND EVENTUALLY TO MVFR BY
DAYBREAK AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBTV. IN GENERAL PRECIPITATION HOLDS
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z FOR MOST SITES, THOUGH SOME LIGHT -SNPL WILL
MOVE INTO KRUT AFTER 09Z REDUCING VSBY TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. WINDS
TRENDING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AT 5-10KTS, EXCEPT KMSS/KSLK
WHERE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS UP TO 18KTS ARE LIKELY
AT KRUT AFTER 22-23Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 00Z FRI...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN A WINTRY MIX THROUGH
18Z WED, TRENDING TO VFR/MVFR IN RAIN AFTER 00Z WED.

00Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN, TRANSITIONING TO MVFR/IFR
IN SNOW AFTER 04Z FRI.

00Z SAT - 00Z SUN...GENERALLY VFR UNDER BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 342 AM EST TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
THE AREA SNOWPACK, RIVER ICE THICKNESS VALUES AND SNOW LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL BY LATE FEBRUARY
STANDARDS. GIVEN THESE VALUES AND THE FACT THAT EXPECTED RAINFALL
WILL BE SPREAD OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS LOW. HOWEVER, SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR ALONG STREAMS AND
RIVERS WHERE PARTIAL ICE BREAKUP OCCURS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...TEAM BTV

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