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SKIVT-L  April 2016, Week 1

SKIVT-L April 2016, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 4 Apr 2016 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (227 lines)

Expires:201604042000;;044586
FPUS51 KBTV 041032
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016


VTZ006-042000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
630 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS AROUND
11. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. 
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 13. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. HIGHS AROUND 50. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201604041100;;044514
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON APR 04 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    18   2  49 E3        30.04R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    13   0  56 CALM      30.00R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    14   5  67 CALM      30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     13   5  70 MISG      29.99S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      10   3  74 CALM      29.99R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    20   2  46 N3        30.01R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    16  10  79 CALM      29.99R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  18   7  62 NE3       30.02R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    15   4  62 NE3       30.06R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    11   1  63 CALM      30.00R                  
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  22  16  78 CALM      29.96R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      7 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A NW7         N/A  WCI -11          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     21   7  53 NE7         N/A  WCI  13          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21   9  58 N9          N/A  WCI  11          

$$


Expires:No;;044717
FXUS61 KBTV 041035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EDT MON APR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING TO LONG ISLAND BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TODAY...BUT LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ESSEX COUNTY NEW
YORK AND AREAS SOUTH OF MONTPELIER IN VERMONT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THESE AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND ON INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EDT MONDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
JUST A MINOR BUMP IN TEMPERATURES UPWARD BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING. ONLY OTHER TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UPWARD JUST A BIT BASED ON LIGHT SNOW
ALREADY FALLING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES
ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE SYSTEM THAT PASSED TO OUR SOUTH
YESTERDAY...BUT NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING EXISTS FOR AN
AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK. MOST OF THIS IS
SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF OUR AREA CONTINUES DRY WITH
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. AS A RESULT...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
AREA AND THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND AREAS SOUTH OF
MONTPELIER IN VERMONT. AT THIS TIME IF THERE ARE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING IT WILL BE DOWN ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. WINDS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DESCRIBED IN THE
TODAY PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THUS NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE TO DELIVER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TONIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT MONDAY...GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN 00Z ECMWF AND
00Z GFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WHILE THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN
TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP CLOSED UPR LOW ACROSS SERN
CANADA AND THE NERN CONUS.

ONE LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY AT 12Z WEDNESDAY UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH TEMPS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S BY AFTN. SFC LOW OVER
LWR MI WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING WARM FRONT...BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING PCPN FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA WED
AFTN. GENERALLY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WET SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE ABOVE 1000' OR SO WED AFTN THRU THE FIRST HALF OF WED
NIGHT. SUMMITS MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION...BUT WITH
LOWER ELEVATION TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
TRAVEL IMPACT DUE TO MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. 

UPSTREAM MID-UPR TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENS SIGNIFICANT THURSDAY IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPR JET MOVING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THIS ALLOWS FOR DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS NJ/NY...WHICH WILL
TRACK NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY 00-06Z FRIDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED 70-90POPS THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN...
POSSIBLY SWITCHING BACK TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NRN NY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. AS LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY...COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND ONLY IN THE MID
30S (NY) TO LWR 40S (VT) ON FRIDAY. TOTAL LIQUID/LIQUID EQUIVALENT
PRECIPITATION AMTS OF AROUND 1" POSSIBLE BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS.

SLOW-MOVING DEEP/CLOSED 500-300MB LOW EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...SO LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY 
CLOUDY...SEASONABLY COOL WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CHANCE S-- RUT/SLK WITH FRINGE
EFFECTS OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS PA/SERN NY. MAY SEE BRIEF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND MVFR CIGS 12-16Z RUT/SLK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ANY LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE...JUST SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN TRENDING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT N-NE...BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR THRU 18Z WED. WARM FRONT
BRINGS WET SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN WED AFTN THRU WED NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND INTERVALS OF IFR EXPECTED. SHOULD ALSO SEE
POTL FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BTV WED AFTN INTO WRN
NIGHT WITH INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAINFALL DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARD SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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September 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 2
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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