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SKIVT-L  May 2016, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2016, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 1 May 2016 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (221 lines)

Expires:201605012015;;311016
FPUS51 KBTV 010737
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


VTZ006-012015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
337 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND
60. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201605011100;;317660
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    44  31  60 CALM      30.17R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      38  30  73 CALM      30.21S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      35  29  78 CALM      30.19S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  27  69 MISG      30.18S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      36  24  61 CALM      30.19S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    42  32  66 CALM      30.17S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    43  28  56 SW3       30.18R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      42  35  76 CALM      30.20R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      40  23  51 CALM      30.17S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      33  27  80 CALM      30.19S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    47  41  80 CALM      30.17R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A W13         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  32  65 N6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  34  65 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;312766
FXUS61 KBTV 010815
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN ON MONDAY. 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER...BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES LATER
IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND N-CNTRL VT THIS MORNING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND A WARM FRONT IS QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM W-CNTRL NY AND PA.

A GRAY...COOL...AND DAMP CLOSE TO WEEKEND IS EXPECTED. THE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295/300K SFCS INDICATES PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA BTWN 12Z-16Z.
INITIALLY...THE COLUMN WILL BE DRY...BUT SHOULD RAPIDLY SATURATE.
THE E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL A BIT ALONG THE ERN
SPINE OF THE NRN DACKS...AND THE NRN GREENS. POPS WERE INCREASED
TO CATEGORICAL VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO M40S OVER THE MTNS. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TWO TENTHS TO HALF AN INCH RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE BLAST OF STRONG LIFT WITH THE
INVERTED SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ACCORDING TO THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS BY THE EARLY EVENING...BUT RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLUMN
WILL BE SATURATED...AND DESPITE THE WEAKER LIFT OVER THE
REGION...HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40-45F RANGE WITH SOME U30S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS.

MONDAY...ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE...ANOTHER SHORT-
WAVE AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS W-CNTRL PA AND
UPSTATE NY MONDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE FCST AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS GOOD QG LIFT FROM THE
DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE
THICKENESS ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY WITH 40S
TO L50S OVER NRN NY AND UPSTATE VT.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
BUBBLE HIGH BUILDING IN OVER SE CANADA AND NRN NY AND VT LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS OVER CNTRL VT. A SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECTED PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. AFTER LOWS IN THE
M30S TO L40S...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE U50S TO L60S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.

TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER THREAT OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ERN
FLANK OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE MDEIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW STRONG THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ADDITIONAL DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/UPPER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST. EXACT DETAILS
ARE YET TO BE IRONED OUT BUT IT'S SAFE TO SAY A RENEWED
CLOUDY/INCLEMENT STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD AS SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND RAINFALL PIVOT INTO THE
REGION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR EARLY MAY SEASONAL LEVELS WITH DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS BTWN
12Z-16Z ACROSS NRN NY AND N-CNTRL VT IN STRATIFORM RAINSHIELD.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO 12Z...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE E/SE AT 5-10 KTS BY NOONTIME.

THE RAINSHIELD SHOULD NICELY EXPAND WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1.5-3.O KFT AGL RANGE WITH VSBYS BTWN 3-5 SM. THE MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND SOME IFR STRATUS AND VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND NRN VT IN THE 21Z/SUN TO
01Z/MON TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER EAST OF THE GREEN MTNS AT
THIS TIME. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE OR S AT 5-10
KTS. 

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 
06Z MON - 12Z TUE: MVFR W/PSBL IFR INTERVALS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE.
HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED FROM LOW CEILINGS. 
12Z TUE - 00Z THU:GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS WEDS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WASULA/NEILES
NEAR TERM...WASULA 
SHORT TERM...WASULA 
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WASULA

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