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SKIVT-L  May 2016, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2016, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 3 May 2016 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (218 lines)

Expires:201605032000;;407354
FPUS51 KBTV 030744
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016


VTZ006-032000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
342 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 

$$


Expires:201605031100;;414125
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    44  41  89 N3        29.94S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  39  93 NW5       29.94S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    42  39  89 N6        29.94R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  40  89 MISG      29.90R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    40  38  92 W5        29.92R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    43  43 100 CALM      29.94R FOG              
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    43  39  87 N5        29.92S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    43  42  97 CALM      29.92R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    42  40  91 CALM      29.95S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    39  37  92 NW5       29.93R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    45  42  89 CALM      29.89S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A NW22        N/A  WCI  17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  43 100 N6          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  43 100 N9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;407853
FXUS61 KBTV 030801
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
401 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OFF AND ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. DENSE
FOG IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG OVER VT
UNDER A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS WHICH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SLOWLY RISE AND BREAK UP
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON, SLOWEST TO CLEAR IN VT
WITH WEAK BLOCKED UPSLOPE N-NW FLOW. LITTLE ADVECTION OF ANY SORT
TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LOW-LEVELS SO IT WILL BE THE
STRONG MAY SUN THAT WILL DRIVE THE CLEARING AND MIXING OUT OF THE
CLOUDS.

SHOULD MAINLY BE DRY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL
TO THE SOUTH...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 850 TEMPS RISE TO
ABOUT +2 TODAY SO TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 TODAY...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BUT WARMER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS THE FLOW COMES AROUND TO SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN LATE. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO BRING AN LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN NY BUT IF THE MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH OVER VT COULD SEE SOME SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND
LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHEAST VT. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW TEMPERATURES
FROM THIS MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF OUR AREA SEEING SOME SHOWERS VERSUS THURSDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT
AS LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD MOVE MORE NORTH
THAN EAST. THUS THREAT OVER VERMONT WILL BE LESS ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHOWERS. TRENDS IN THE DATA NOW SUGGEST ON THURSDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE SO FAR SOUTH THAT IT WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON
OUR AREA. THUS HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE MORE TERRAIN DRIVEN AS
THAT WILL BE THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM TO ENHANCE ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 401 AM EDT TUESDAY...UNFORTUNATELY NO DEFINITIVE
INDICATIONS ON WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT POSITIONED
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION.
WITH IT BEING MORE NORTH THAN THURSDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS. LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO FACTOR INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED IT WHERE THE LOW HAS LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND WITH WARMER 925/850 MB
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 AND
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY. A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TAKES PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVES DOWN INTO OUR AREA. SHARP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID-TUESDAY
AM, GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP TO MAINLY VFR BY TUESDAY
PM. LIFR AT KMSS THROUGH SUNRISE THEN BECOMING VFR BY MID
MORNING.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS SHALLOW MOIST
LAYER IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WINDS LIGHT
NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO ESPECIALLY KBTV BUT NEAR CALM
ELSEWHERE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WHEN LOW-LEVEL INVERSION BREAKS WHICH
WOULD THEN LIFT THE CEILINGS TOWARD VFR, ROUGHLY FROM 14 TO 18Z.
TAFS SHOW MVFR DECK LIFTING TO VFR IN 15-16Z PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT.

AFTER SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE EVENING SOME CLOUDS RETURN
OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME MVFR STRATUS ESP AT KMPV AND KSLK BY
WED MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SE AND ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY DAY
BREAK. 

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 
WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. 
THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT CHC MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE COAST.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...SISSON

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