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SKIVT-L  May 2016, Week 1

SKIVT-L May 2016, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 5 May 2016 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (214 lines)

Expires:201605052000;;498163
FPUS51 KBTV 050720
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
318 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016


VTZ006-052000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
318 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 

$$


Expires:201605051100;;505257
ASUS41 KBTV 051030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-051100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    47  44  90 NW3       29.81R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    43  41  93 CALM      29.83S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    44  42  93 N3        29.82R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     45  42  89 MISG      29.80R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    43  39  85 N5        29.82R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    45  45 100 CALM      29.80R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    44  40  85 SE7       29.80R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    43  41  93 CALM      29.80S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    41  40  98 CALM      29.82S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    44  41  91 N3        29.83R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    46  39  76 NE3       29.75S                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     34 N/A N/A SW9         N/A  WCI  26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  45 100 NW9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     46  46 100 N10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;498246
FXUS61 KBTV 050728
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND WET WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY,
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
TODAY WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THOUGH FOR SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 328 AM EDT THURSDAY...WELL, WE'VE GOT ONE MORE DAY TO GET
THROUGH BEFORE WE SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUN, I PROMISE!
TODAY WILL BE DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH AND WE WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL, BUT NOT BY MUCH. LIKE
YESTERDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST, WITH A MID-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH SOME CLEARING LATE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES ONCE AGAIN SHOW OUR SOURCE
AIR AT 500M COMING FROM WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS FAR
EAST AS NEW BRUNSWICK TO BE EXACT, WHERE HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE ONLY
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. FORECAST 925MB TEMPS AROUND +8-10C
WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S IF WE HAD SUN, BUT SINCE WE WON'T I
THINK WE'LL TOP OUT JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN
THE LOW/MID 50S MOUNTAINS TO MID/UPPER 50S VALLEYS.

FOR TONIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN. WE'LL SEE SOME SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO FOR MOST OF THE REGION TEMPS WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID 40S.
COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE FROM THE DACKS NORTHWESTWARD WHERE MORE
CLEARING OCCURS, WITH TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC PIVOTS, THEN SHEARS NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MORE
ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. SOME DISPARITY REMAINS AMONG THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL MODELS
ON HOW FAR NORTHWARD SHOWERY PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE INTO OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY, BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FEEL ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST AND GENERALLY
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
FEATURE. BY SATURDAY A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE
AS UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT NORTHEASTWARD, BUT AGAIN DYNAMICS AREN'T
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO 20-40 POPS LOOK IN ORDER WITH LARGE
STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WELL. SOME INDICATION THAT
LOWER END MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AS WELL, WITH LATEST
SREF CALIBRATED THUNDER PROGS IN THE 5-10 PCT RANGE. GIVEN THESE
VALUES ARE QUITE LOW WILL OPT TO OMIT ANY REFERENCE TO THUNDER AT
THIS TIME BUT IF THE SIGNAL REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS
TOMORROW WE MAY CONSIDER INCLUDING THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 70 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FILTERED SUN EXIST. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 318 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOST ACTIVE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF
WEATHER THEN OCCURS BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS SHARPLY
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THUS A CONTINUATION OF HIGH
POPS (60-70 PCT) WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEREAFTER, SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY LATER SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY NEXT MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY OF MIDWEST ORIGIN
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
GENERALLY VFR AT KMSS/KSLK, MVFR AND KBTV/KRUT AND IFR AT
KPBG/KMPV UNDER LIGHT WINDS. AFTER 12Z, NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DRY OUT SO THE TREND WILL SLOWLY
BE TOWARDS VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE AFTER 21Z. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO
MENTION VCSH AND MAINLY AT KRUT AND KMPV.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
06Z FRIDAY - 00Z SAT: MAINLY VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. CIGS.
00Z SAT - 06Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
06Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.
06Z MON - 00Z TUE: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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July 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 3
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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