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SKIVT-L  May 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L May 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 14 May 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (222 lines)

Expires:201605142000;;931347
FPUS51 KBTV 140745
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016


VTZ006-142000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
343 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.

$$


Expires:201605141100;;937799
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 49 44 83 S6 29.74S
MONTPELIER FAIR 44 42 93 S6 29.78S
MORRISVILLE FAIR 42 41 96 S3 29.75S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 48 46 93 MISG 29.71S
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 48 44 85 W3 29.75S
MIDDLEBURY* FOG 47 47 100 SE3 29.76R VSB 1/2
RUTLAND* FAIR 47 46 97 SE7 29.78S
SPRINGFIELD FOG 47 46 97 CALM 29.76S VSB<1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 52 43 71 SW3 29.72S
NEWPORT* FAIR 51 42 70 CALM 29.73F
BENNINGTON FOG 42 42 100 S3 29.77F VSB 1/4
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A NW30 N/A WCI 27

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 55 45 67 S6 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 50 50 100 SW1 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;932844
FXUS61 KBTV 140813
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
413 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east from the Great Lakes today and into
northern New York late this afternoon. This cold front will bring
more rain showers to the north country late this afternoon and
tonight, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm possible. Colder
weather will be over the north country Sunday and Monday along
with a chance for more showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 412 AM EDT Saturday...skies will start out sunny across the
north country this morning, and then become partly sunny this
afternoon. Expecting patchy dense valley fog across eastern and
northeast Vermont to burn off just after daybreak this morning. A
cold front over the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers
mainly to northern New York and the Champlain valley late this
afternoon. SPC has the region in a general thunderstorm outlook
for today and tonight. However, lifted and Showalter indexes are
showing marginal instability late this afternoon and early
tonight, so have just indicated a slight chance for some
thunderstorms in the forecast for late this afternoon and early
tonight. Expecting temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to
lower 70s today, and then falling into the 40s tonight after the
cold frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT Saturday...Cold and unsettled weather is
expected during this time period with widespread rain and snow
showers. Large scale synoptic pattern shows 2 to 3 STD below
normal closed 5h/7h circulation will move across our region...with
favorable upslope flow prevailing through monday. GFS ensemble
situational awareness table indicates progged 850mb temperatures
between -3c and -5c by sunday night into monday...which is 1 to 2
STD below normal for mid May. Bottom line expect cold
conditions...with rain and accumulating snow showers in the
mountains. Likely to cat (70-90%) pops can be expected in the
mountains for Sunday/Monday with chance in the valleys.

For Sunday...best 1000 to 700mb relative humidity and associated
enhanced 1000 to 850mb omega fields from favorable upslope flow is
located across the Northern Adirondacks into Central and Northern
Green Mountains of VT. This moisture and lift combined with
steepening 1000 to 700mb lapse rates >8.0 C/kg suggest afternoon
convectively driven showers will develop. Initially thermal
profiles on Sunday support snow levels near 3500 feet with progged
850mb temperatures between -1c and -2c. However...low level cold
air advection continues on brisk west to northwest winds on Sunday
afternoon and evening...with progged 850mb temps falling to -3c
and -6c by 12z Monday and 925mb temps around -2c...supporting snow
level dropping to 1000 feet. Have continued to note GFS Bufkit
soundings showing around 0.60 qpf all in the form of snow...but
much less with values between 0.20 and 0.35 off the NAM/local WRF
models for Sunday into Monday. Using a model blend for qpf and
associated thermal profiles...thinking snowfall amounts will range
between a dusting to 2 inches above 1500 feet with up to 4 or 5
inches likely at summit level by monday afternoon. Given the very
cold thermal profiles...would not be surprised if we see a few
passing snowflakes here in the Champlain Valley on Sunday night.
Warm boundary layer temperatures in the mid/upper 30s will prevent
any accumulation. the coldest day of the period looks like monday
with highs ranging from the upper 30s mountain valleys to lower
50s lower CT River Valley. Overnight low temperatures will be
tricky with clouds/precip and chilly northwest winds...so have
indicated little minimal diurnal change...with coldest values in
the mountains as region is under cold air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 332 AM EDT saturday...Unfortunately our cold weather and
mountain snow showers don't hang around for the rest of the week.
The deep mid/upper level trough wills slowly weaken and lift into
eastern canada by midweek. However...we always have that one more
short wave with enhanced mid level moisture rotating around the
cyclonic flow...which looks to impact our region in the
Weds/Thursday time period. Moisture will be limited with this
energy and timing is still in question...so will only mention pops
in the mountains. Progged 850mb temps slowly rebound to 0c by 12z
weds...with 925mb values between 3-4c. These low level thermal
profiles support highs mainly in the 40s mountains to 50s valleys
for Tuesday and Wednesday with readings back close to normal by
Thursday. A ridge of high pressure both aloft and at the surface
looks to build across our region toward the end of the week into
next weekend with temperatures returning to near normal. Given the
very dry moisture profiles anticipated with this area of high
pressure...expect large diurnal swings in daily temperatures from
cool lows to mild daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions overall for the period.
However, some patchy dense valley fog over the sheltered valleys
of Vermont until 12Z Saturday. Ceilings will clear out overnight
and then return late in the period after 18z but still remain VFR.
Showers after 18z Saturday could cause short periods of MVFR due
to visibility restrictions.

Outlook 06z Sunday through Wednesday...

06z Sunday - 00z Tuesday: Periods of MVFR in scattered rain
showers but generally VFR.

00z Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR with showers entering late
Wednesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...WGH/Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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