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SKIVT-L  May 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L May 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 13 May 2016 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (215 lines)

Expires:201605132000;;882177
FPUS51 KBTV 130747
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016


VTZ006-132000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
345 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN
CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 60. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 

$$


Expires:201605131100;;888780
ASUS41 KBTV 131030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    65  35  33 S9        29.82F                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      53  40  61 CALM      29.91F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      40  38  93 CALM      29.87F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  39  82 MISG      29.88F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      47  39  73 CALM      29.91S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      60  35  39 CALM      29.85S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      52  39  61 SE12      29.89F                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      42  40  92 CALM      29.93F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      65  37  35 S10       29.79F                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      50  39  67 SW5       29.87F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      60  34  37 SE7       29.89S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A W20         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  45  67 S23         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  43  51 S14         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;883600
FXUS61 KBTV 130815
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
415 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly east from the eastern Great Lakes
today and will move through the north country late this afternoon
and tonight. This cold front will bring rain showers to the north
country today and early tonight. Another cold front will approach
from the Great lakes on Saturday, and will bring more rain showers
to the north country Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. An
upper low will bring a chance for more rain showers to the region
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT Friday...Composite radar loop showing rain
shower across Lake Ontario and western New York state at this
time. These have been slow to move eastward. Expecting skies to
start out partly sunny across the Champlain valley and Vermont
this morning. Expecting rain shower activity to develop across the
northern New York zones late this morning, and then across the
Champlain valley and Vermont this afternoon. Models showing a mid
level dry slot will work into northern New York late this
afternoon with showers coming to an end. Showers will continue
across Vermont and the Champlain valley early tonight, before
ending around midnight. Expecting partly cloudy skies to develop
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT Friday...Active period of weather anticipated
across our region with development of deep/closed 5h trough and
associated potent 5h vort and secondary surface cold front
crossing our forecast area. given the dynamics and solid axis of
850 to 500mb moisture associated with sharp surface
convergence...will continue to mention likely to cat pops on
Saturday. The duration of rain will be 2 to 4 hours as the front
moves from west to east across our region. The combination of
temperatures climbing into the 60s to near 70 degrees ahead of
boundary will combined with cooling temperatures aloft to produce
some instability with CAPE values between 200-500 J/kg and LI's
ranging from -1C to -3C. NAM/GFS indicate the best instability
parameters...along with 0-6KM shear will be across northern
NY...so have mention slight chance of thunder with isolated gusty
winds and small hail possible during the afternoon hours. QPF
values will range between 0.15 to 0.30 with isolated higher
amounts in localized stronger convective elements.

Strong low level cold air advection develops behind boundary by
Sunday with progged 850mb temps dropping between -3C and -5C by
00z Monday. These cooler temperatures combined with favorable
upslope flow and additional 850 to 500mb moisture will produce
more terrain driven precip Saturday night into Monday. Initially
thermal profiles suggest snow levels near summit level on saturday
night...but fall to 1500 feet by 12z Sunday...as 925mb
temperatures approach 0C. Soundings indicating freezing levels
will increase to 2500 feet on Sunday afternoon...before falling
back toward the valley floors on Sunday night. Current thinking
models are a bit overdone in backside qpf amounts...given closed
5H/7H circulation is tracking to our north. Will continue to
mention chance pops in the valleys and likely to cat in the
mountains. snow amounts will vary greatly depending upon elevation
with several inches likely above 1800 feet and up to 4 or 5 inches
possible on the summits by Monday. Low temperatures will be mainly
in the 30s to lower 40s with highs mainly in the 40s on
sunday...except cooler in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 aM EDT friday...a cold northwest flow aloft with
lingering upslope rain and snow showers will continue on monday.
Progged 850mb temps between -4C and -6C support well below normal
highs with values mainly in the 30s mountains to 40s valleys...a
few lower 50s are possible in the lower CT River Valley and
Champlain Valley. temperatures will slowly rebound by Tuesday as
weak surface ridge develops with fast westerly flow aloft. Progged
850mb temperatures warm between -1C and +2C by 18z
Tuesday...supporting upper 40s to lower 60s across our region.
Have noted some uncertainty with timing and magnitude of next 5h
trough dropping down across the Great Lakes and Northeast Conus
for Wednesday into Thursday. GFS indicates the better moisture and
dynamics would stay south of our region...while latest ECMWF shows
a surface boundary with an enhanced ribbon of mid level moisture.
Based on time frame and uncertainty will mention pops at this time
with temperatures still running 4 to 8 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06z Saturday...a cold front will move slowly east from the
eastern Great Lakes today...bringing rain showers to the region.
VFR conditions lowering to mvfr in rain showers today. expecting
condition to improve to vfr by 06z saturday. expecting some
southerly surface wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots to develop between
13z-15z friday and continue to 00z saturday.

Outlook 06z Saturday through Tuesday...
VFR except scattered MVFR in rain showers each day.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...WGH/Neiles

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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