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SKIVT-L  June 2016, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2016, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 30 Jun 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:201606302000;;207714
FPUS51 KBTV 301048
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016


VTZ006-302000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
646 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS AROUND 70. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.INDEPENDENCE DAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 

$$


Expires:201606301100;;207234
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      58  55  90 SE3       29.96R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       53  52  96 CALM      30.02R VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       53  52  96 CALM      29.99R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  55  97 MISG      29.95R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       53  52  97 NE3       29.99R VSB<1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     55  55 100 CALM      29.98R FOG              
RUTLAND*       FOG       58  58 100 CALM      30.00R VSB 1/4          
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       54  54 100 CALM      29.99R VSB<1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      58  57  99 SE3       29.95R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      54  54  99 CALM      29.97S FOG              
BENNINGTON     FAIR      54  52  93 CALM      30.00R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A    N/A N/A N/A S14         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  59  94 S3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;203010
FXUS61 KBTV 300829
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control across the North Country through
tonight, with warm daytime temperatures and comfortable humidity
levels. A potent upper-level system on Friday will lead to a
period of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, but the main risk would
be from localized heavy rain. Cooler than normal temperatures with
limited chances for showers to start Independence Day weekend, but
turning sunny and dry for Sunday and the Independence Day
holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure remains in control
early this morning with broadly cyclonic flow at mid-levels.
Several areas this morning have seen areas of patchy fog, but it
has not proven to be as persistent or as dense as initially
thought. The coverage of mist or fog is still greater than what
typically happens, so morning drivers for the commute should make
sure to drive a bit slower if fog is encountered. Fog should erode
pretty quickly into the early/mid morning hrs under strong
sunshine. It should prove to be a stellar day with clear skies and
925 mb temperatures around +19 to +21C which should push highs
into the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s today. Very comfortable
humidity levels as dewpoints initially in the mid 50s fall into
the upper 40s as dry air is mixed down this afternoon.

High pressure will still remain in control tonight and the overall
theme of clear skies and light winds will continue, though some
high clouds will begin to approach from the south and west toward
early morning Friday. Possibility of nighttime fog again in the
fog-prone river valleys, however I didn't include in the Wx grids
as we'll be a day or two removed from the better soil moisture
flux from the earlier rainfall this week. Lows should be similar
to this morning...in the upper 40s for the Adirondacks to the
upper 50s/around 60 in the Champlain Valley. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...More active weather then develops for
Friday into Friday evening, as a negatively-tilted 500 mb
shortwave trough and cold front/occlusion sweep across the region.
Models are in generally good agreement on timing of the
rain/storms, though the 00z ECMWF is a bit slower than
NAM/SREF/GFS. Sided closer to the latter, faster guidance. Expect
gradually lowering cloud cover to develop and move northward into
the Friday morning hours, which will serve to really limit the
degree of afternoon surface-based instability and low-level lapse
rates to CAPE values at or below 1000 J/kg. In addition, 25-35 kts
of BL-6 km effective shear may support a few organized cells but
isn't overly impressive. While SPC's SWODY2 maintains a Marginal
Risk/5% combined severe probabilities, agree with prior forecast
thinking that severe is looking to be less of a factor over the
hydro aspect. For more on the hydrologic aspects, see the
Hydrology section below. Raised PoPs into the high likely range
during the Friday afternoon and Friday early-evening period
associated with the front, and then decreasing to chance/slight
chance for late evening into the overnight. Forcing for ascent
owing to the negative tilt of the trough, a decent moisture axis
of PWATs between 1.2-1.4" and at least modest instability should
support a risk of localized heavy rainfall and I've included this
wording in Wx grids.

With the cloud cover that's likely to be the case in the morning,
I've trended lower on the high temperatures than MOS guidance and
what 925 mb temps would otherwise support under full mixing. Using
a blend of cooler raw guidance, I've got highs in the 70s.
Likewise, look for temps to be slightly warmer than MOS
(particularly central/eastern VT) from the low/mid 50s for NY into
the mid/upper 50s for most of VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Thursday...Saturday becomes our typical post
frontal regime with the upper low settling in over the area with
lowering heights, residual low level moisture and west to
northwest upslope flow allowing for showers, mainly across the
northern portion of the area closer to the upper low centered over
Quebec. It will be cool and breezy as well with highs only around
70 and northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Drier and Milder on Sunday although can't rule out an isolated
shower along the canadian border on sunday afternoon. however dry
for any firework displays sunday night.

Monday(4th) will be dry and seasonably warm. Late morning
temperatures in the 60s/70s will be ideal for any parades.

Broad ridge over the central US sets up for the rest of the week.
a shortwave trough moves west to east in westerly flow but will
remain mainly south of the forecast area across southern NY and PA
on Tuesday. Weak ridge builds in for mid week with slightly
warmer than normal temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...While VFR should hold at least initially,
favorable conditions for radiational mist or fog are in place
tonight with clear skies, calm/light boundary-layer winds and
recently wet soils from Tuesday and/or Wednesday storms. Think
lowest prevailing LIFR/VLIFR ceilings/visibilites in fog (locally
dense) will be at MSS, MPV and SLK through at least 11z. I've also
included tempo IFR mist for the rest of the TAFs through 10z where
it's less clear if fog may settle in to hint at the possibility
that some mist or fog may be around. Any fog should lift by 10-12z
as strong sunshine is expected with VFR conditions for Thursday.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 12z Friday...VFR except localized LIFR
radiational fog likely at MPV and SLK.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front brings scattered showers and possible strong thunderstorms
during Friday afternoon. Convective activity should move east of
the region and diminish Friday night. 

12z Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, except few -SHRA
possible nrn mountains Saturday aftn/early evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 426 AM Thursday...Potential for heavy rainfall on Friday
associated with strong frontal system that will move across the
region. Instability will be pretty limited on Friday afternoon
and evening due to morning cloud cover, but there should be at
least some risk of embedded thunderstorms to enhance rainfall.
These showers and embedded thunderstorms will be acting on an axis
of PWATs of around 1.2 to 1.4", relatively high but not excessive.
Another aspect is that the heaviest rain should be moving at a
fairly decent clip which would limit the potential duration
somewhat. Forecast QPF for Friday is less than 0.75", higher in
more persistent thunderstorms.

Still think there is a need to watch for localized heavy rainers
capable of flash flooding over small areas. Areas such as Franklin
and western parts of Clinton County in NY as well as the northern
VT counties of Orleans, Caledonia and Essex Counties would be
slightly more vulnerable to flash flooding. Each of these areas
saw heavy rain these on Tuesday and would need to be watched.
Main-stem river flooding is not currently expected.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Loconto
HYDROLOGY...Loconto

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December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 3
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 3
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May 2007, Week 1
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April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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