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SKIVT-L  June 2016, Week 5

SKIVT-L June 2016, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 29 Jun 2016 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (232 lines)

Expires:201606292000;;152321
FPUS51 KBTV 290752
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016


VTZ006-292000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
350 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST
AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 70. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201606291100;;158613
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    67  63  87 CALM      29.85S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    63  63 100 CALM      29.91R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       63  61  93 NE3       29.87S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     63  61  93 MISG      29.86R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    61  60  97 CALM      29.90S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    64  64 100 CALM      29.87R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    63  63 100 S3        29.89R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    64  62  93 CALM      29.88R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    65  64  97 CALM      29.84S FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    61  60  99 SW3       29.88S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    63  62  97 W5        29.90R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A NW15        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  64  94 SW3         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  66 100 SW5         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     64  64 100 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;154967
FXUS61 KBTV 290836
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
436 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers across eastern Vermont dissipate early this
morning. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy day with scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with showers dissipating by
sunset. Mostly sunny skies anticipated for Thursday. The next
period of more active weather is on Friday with a cold frontal
passage triggering showers and thunderstorms. Some may become
strong on Friday. The Independence Day weekend outlook looks
favorable for outdoor plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 435 AM EDT Tuesday...After yesterday's period of more
active weather, we are still contending with some leftover lower
clouds and light showers across eastern VT on the warm side of a
cold front. These lingering showers should be coming to an end
into the morning commute, but the lower overcast likely will be
harder to shake free of, likely not until mid to late morning.
Elsewhere, skies are generally partly to mostly cloudy. Expect
that most everywhere should see at least some peeks or breaks of
sun by the afternoon. Any breaks should fill back in with cumulus
clouds though, as we are still under the influence of an upper
trough that will shift its way across our area this afternoon.
There should be enough daytime heating to generate at least
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
This activity will be solely driven by diurnal heating and lift
along terrain. Instability values are lower than yesterday -
between 650 J/kg on the GFS to 1200 J/kg on the bullish NAM, and
deep shear is even weaker as well around 15 to 20 knots. However,
think a few stronger cells might be capable of producing some
small hail given that wet- bulb zero heights are around 8000-10000
ft. So opted for afternoon scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms with PoPs in the 20-40% range, but declined on any
enhanced wording for small hail as the coverage should be limited.
I did mention in the HWO, however. Think eastern and northeast VT
stands the best shot at seeing any thunderstorms today as moisture
levels/dewpoints are highest there. Looking at highs today in the
70s.

Cold front and its windshift clears the area early tonight with
high pressure ridging into the area. Should see strong radiational
cooling and dewpoints dropping once diurnal clouds/showers burn
off to clear skies. Given that many areas saw at least some rain
and with winds being so light, I'd expect there to be at least
some radiational fog in the prone river valleys. It may
potentially extend elsewhere, but for now I've included patchy fog
for just the river valleys tonight. Lows range from mid/upper 40s
in the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 50s in the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
build east from the Ohio valley and Great Lakes on Thursday and
will remain over the region through early Friday, with fair and
dry weather expected. On Friday, models showing an upper trough
and a cold front swinging southeast across the Great Lakes. Models
also showing this upper trough will pull additional moisture
northward from the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. GFS model
showing deep layer shear of 35-40 knots in the 0-6km layer by
Friday afternoon, as well as most unstable cape values of
1500-2300 j/kg by late Friday afternoon. SPC has the region in a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Will hold
off on any enhanced wording for Friday at this time, and will let
later shifts reevaluate this. Shower and thunderstorm activity to
continue into early Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 403 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will linger over the
region on Saturday, so will keep in a chance for showers. Could be
some residual showers on Sunday near the international border, but
most of the region should remain dry on Sunday. Models in good
agreement from Sunday night through Tuesday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region, with fair and dry weather
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mix of flight categories from VFR to LIFR
across the airports due to leftover showers across eastern VT and
developing mist or light fog with the saturated conditions.
Still some lightning being reported near VSF and LEB but should
remain distant from RUT and MPV. Expect changeable flight
category conditions to continue through at least 11z. As showers
clear expect some areas of 1 to 2 SM mist/fog to set up and this
has already occurred at BTV and MSS and likely also the case at
SLK. Winds through 12z will be light and variable. 

General improving conditions to VFR early Wednesday morning. As
skies clear and stronger diurnal heating begins, expect there to
be some scattered showers/possible thunderstorms. Could see brief
MVFR cig and MVFR/IFR visby reductions in any thunderstorms.
Coverage and start time remain unclear so I've treated as VCSH
for now with hopefully more clarity by the 12z TAF issuance. This
activity is diurnally driven and should end by sunset. Winds
generally light northwesterly under 5 kts.

Outlook 06z thursday through Sunday...

00z Thursday through 12z Friday...VFR with LIFR radiational fog
likely at MPV and SLK Thursday night.

12z Friday through 12z Saturday...VFR trending MVFR/IFR as a cold
front sparks showers/possible t-storms.

12z Saturday through 00z Sunday...Generally VFR, but brief
VFR/MVFR showers possible at PBG, BTV and MPV as upper trough
passes.

00z Sunday onward...VFR under high pressure. Possible evening LIFR
fog with the best chance at SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Loconto

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
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December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
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November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
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October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 5
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January 2006, Week 3
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 2
July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
January 2005, Week 2
January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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December 2004, Week 3
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 5
October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
September 2004, Week 5
September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 1
June 2004, Week 5
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May 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 3
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
December 2001, Week 5
December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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December 2001, Week 1
November 2001, Week 5
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November 2001, Week 3
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April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2000, Week 5
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December 1999, Week 5
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June 1999, Week 3
June 1999, Week 2
June 1999, Week 1
May 1999, Week 5
May 1999, Week 4
May 1999, Week 3
May 1999, Week 2
May 1999, Week 1
April 1999, Week 5
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April 1999, Week 3
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April 1999, Week 1
March 1999, Week 5
March 1999, Week 4
March 1999, Week 3
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March 1999, Week 1
February 1999, Week 4
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December 1998, Week 5
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