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SKIVT-L  July 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 28 Jul 2016 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201607282000;;586379
FPUS51 KBTV 280835
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016


VTZ006-282000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
433 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
LOWS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

$$


Expires:201607281100;;590367
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 68 62 81 CALM 29.88R
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 61 60 97 CALM 29.96S FOG
MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 62 59 90 CALM 29.93R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 60 90 MISG 29.90S
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 61 60 97 CALM 29.95S FOG
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 67 61 79 CALM 29.90R
RUTLAND* FAIR 64 60 87 SE9 29.93R
SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 60 58 92 CALM 29.94R
HIGHGATE* FAIR 65 64 94 CALM 29.88S
NEWPORT* FAIR 63 61 94 S3 29.92S
BENNINGTON FAIR 59 56 89 CALM 29.94R
SUTTON* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 63 N/A N/A NW18 N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 64 73 E1 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 66 78 S9 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 64 78 SW5 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;583779
FXUS61 KBTV 280746
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 AM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary just north of the international border early
this morning will settle slowly southward across the North Country
today. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance across the central
Great Lakes will move eastward, and result in scattered showers
and thunderstorm activity near the frontal zone this afternoon and
evening. High temperatures will generally reach the mid to upper
80s across the region today. A few showers are possible again on
Friday, mainly across south- central Vermont as the low-level frontal
zone continues to shift southward into southern New England.
Cooler and drier air will filter in across northern sections, with
highs in the lower 80s for Friday and upper 70s to lower 80s for
Saturday, with lower humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...Mild conditions prevail across the
North Country early this morning with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s
and temperatures ranging from the mid 60s most sections, to the
lower 70s across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Surface
analysis shows a weak frontal boundary across srn Quebec into
southeastern Ontario. Winds are nearly calm south of the
boundary...and light W-NW north of the trough line with dewpoints
mainly in the mid-upr 50s north of the front (an air mass that
will be in place across the North Country for Friday). Some mid-
upper level clouds are streaming ewd across the region this
morning, mainly a function of convective debris from thunderstorms
earlier today across the upr MS river valley and Great Lakes
region. These mid-upr clouds are limiting radiational fog
formation, but can't rule out patchy development 8-11Z in the
favored valleys of central/ern VT and within the valleys of the
Northern Adirondack region.

Remnant 500mb vort across the central Great Lakes will shear out
ewd in W-E belt of strengthening 300-200mb flow approaching
90-100kt across Lake Ontario ewd into nrn NY/VT by 18Z this
afternoon. That said, low-mid level flow will remain rather light
in vcnty of sfc trough/frontal zone, as it sags swd into nrn NY/VT
by early to mid afternoon. Insolational heating with filtered
sunshine will yield 2-m temps in the low-mid 80s, and with mid 60s
dewpoints in place, will contribute to SBCAPE values of 1000-1500
J/kg and PW values of 1.5 to 1.6" this aftn. Can't rule out a
stronger thunderstorm or two, but combination of mid-level lapse
rates only around 6 C/km and very weak low-level flow should limit
overall robustness and organization of widely scattered convective
cells this afternoon. A few stronger cores could have some small
hail or gusty winds, but generally below svr limits. PoPs peak
around 60-70 Percent 18-20Z across central/nrn VT, and generally
40-50 percent across s-central sections.

Into the early to late evening hours, will see convective coverage
and intensity gradually diminish and generally focus across
s-central VT as frontal zone sags south. Effective front may be
marked by convective outflows pushing swd through the evening
hours. Precipitation should be generally ending by 06z, with
patchy fog possible in favored valleys 06-12z, especially in areas
seeing daytime/evening thunderstorm activity and residual wet
ground conditions. Low temperatures tonight generally in the low-
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...Cluster of convection looks to affect
more of southern New England on Friday than northern areas. Would
expect a fairly sharp gradient of precipitation given the west to
southwest flow aloft. Areas near the Canadian border should remain
dry with a chance of showers across central and south central
Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Any lingering precipitation comes to an
end Friday evening with high pressure starting to build down from
Canada late Friday night into Saturday. No precipitation is
expected during this period with highs on Saturday in the mid 70s
to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Thursday...Trends in the data now suggest a
shortwave trough moves into the region on Sunday for a chance of
showers right through Sunday night. The pattern looks to change
for the first half of next week with an upper level ridge of high
pressure gradually building in for relatively dry weather and a
gradual warming trend with highs in the 80s all areas Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12z Friday...Generally VFR with SCT-BKN070-100 much of
the day. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will become
most widespread 16-20Z, and then gradually diminish in coverage
during the evening hours, while generally shifting swd into srn
VT. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR possible in shower and thunderstorm
activity with brief heavy downpours. Winds generally light S-SW,
becoming light N-NW with weak frontal passage this afternoon...and
remaining light north tonight. Patchy fog possible during the
06-12Z Friday period, especially at locations seeing
shower/thunderstorm activity during the aftn/evening period with
residual wet ground conditions.

Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Isold -SHRA
possible s-central VT/KRUT during Friday afternoon. Chance for
additional showers on Sunday, with isold -TSRA possible mainly
across srn sections.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Banacos

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June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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August 2006, Week 5
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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