Expires:201607232000;;337769
FPUS51 KBTV 230730
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016


VTZ006-232000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...MAINLY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS AROUND 80. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 

$$


Expires:201607231100;;345096
ASUS41 KBTV 231030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    67  64  90 CALM      29.77S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    61  61 100 CALM      29.84R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       64  62  93 CALM      29.81R VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     64  62  93 MISG      29.77R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      64  60  87 CALM      29.79S                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      64  61  90 SE6       29.81R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      63  60  90 CALM      29.80R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      65  64  97 CALM      29.77R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      62  62  98 CALM      29.79S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      65  62  90 CALM      29.83R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A NW23        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  66  88 S6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  66  88 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     68  64  88 SE2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;339999
FXUS61 KBTV 230819
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
419 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
More scattered showers and thunderstorms move across
the North Country today as an upper level disturbance moves
through. Some thunderstorms may have gusty winds and small hail.
Sunday looks mostly sunny and seasonable under hand yet another
possibility of showers and thunderstorms late Monday. Warm and
mostly dry summer weather looks like it will continue Tue and Wed.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 419 AM EDT Saturday...Looks like another active day today
with showers and thunderstorms developing late this morning in the
north and becoming more widespread this afternoon as they move
southeast and diminish quickly this evening. A couple of the
thunderstorms may be marginally severe with hail and gusty winds.

This morning any patchy fog will burn off quickly by around 8 am
followed by rapid cumulus cloud development this morning. a
potent shortwave trof is expected to move across our area this
afternoon with cooling at 500 mb down to -15C. This cooling aloft
along with mild 850 temps of about 13C and surface temps reaching
the lower 80s are expected to kick off thunderstorms late morning
early afternoon in the north. Each model has a differing
evolution of the convection, and is again a symptom of just how
sensitive the models are to this type of weather pattern that is
driven by mixed layers, elevated and low level instability and
boundary layer details.

Taking a blend of the models suggests that we'll have CAPE values
750 to 1500 J/kg, highest in the St. Lawrence Valley which is
decent enough to drive convection. We'll also have 30-40kt 0-6km
shear mainly over the south and west portions of our area while
shear over VT less on the order of 15 to 25 kts. So we can't
totally rule out a stronger storm with gusty winds and small hail,
so have included in the forecast.

Looks like the highest chances 60-80% of precipitation and storms
will be from mid-day until early evening. SPC has our region
under "Marginal Risk" of severe thunderstorms and we are in good
agreement.

Scattered showers/storms (a few possibly strong early) then wane
and exit southeast fairly quickly Saturday evening as upper
trough swings through the region and is replaced by building high
pressure. Chance of precip drop off quickly during the evening,
then largely dry from midnight onward. Low temperatures near
seasonal mid-summer norms in the 50s to around 60 for most
locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 419 AM EDT Saturday...Sunday: All models agree the day will
live up to it's name and be a super spectacularly sunny and serene
day. Ridging aloft and at the surface will be in place. With 925mb
temperatures running between 17- 19C, we'll see daytime highs
topping out in the upper 70s (higher elevations) to lower 80s
(valleys). light winds and dewpoints in the 50s will ensure
comfortable conditions. Given all that model agreement, I did not
stray from the guidance blend.

Sunday Night: Things change as ridging moves off to the east as the
next trough in the overall westerly flow starts heading our way.
Warm air advection aloft will result in increasing clouds overnight.
Should be some elevated instability as well, have noted Showalter
Index values <0C spreading in after 06z monday in the models. That
suggests showers are possible, and sure enough that is what the
models show as well. Have painted in rising chances overnight.
Expect a few showers, mainly across northern NY, prior to daybreak
Monday. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question across the St
Lawrence valley by dawn as we'll have the nose of an 850mb jet
pushing into that area to provide a little extra lift. The
increasing clouds will keep it mild for most of the region. Low/mid
60s from the Champlain Valley westward. 50s will be confined to
eastern VT

Monday: For days, guidance has been indicating unsettled conditions
(eg: showers and t-storms) to be possible. 00Z model runs are no
different, and have come in more alignment with timing and overall
setup of convective ingredients. Still, things are not totally
clear. What I do expect is that a fairly robust shortwave will be
approaching the region late in the day. This will sync up daytime
heating with the best dynamics aloft. Models do indicate surface
based instability of probably 1000-1500 J/kg (NAM as typical is
higher) due to a warmer and more humid airmass getting into place.
Just how much instability we achieve will be related to how much sun
we see. 925mb temperatures are expected to become very warm -perhaps
23 to 25C. Under perfect atmospheric mixing conditions, this would
result in temperatures at the valley floor pushing into the mid 90s!
However, it appears we'll have a good amount of clouds to restrict
heating to a degree. Though we should still easily reach the mid
80s.  The 0-6km bulk shear values are in the marginal level for
getting storms to become on the strong side.  SPC does have the
region in a marginal risk, but they also have some concerns about
the mix of ingredients lining up perfectly to develop severe t-
storms. Evaluation of various forecast sounding for Monday have some
"goofiness" (thats a technical term, by the way) showing in the
profiles. Not sure if that is due to convection within the models,
or if it's a sign that despite the very warm air aloft, we'll have
some inversion in place to restrict mixing, which in turn means
restricted convection.  At this point, will play the middle ground,
and keep PoPs in the 40-55% range and see how future guidance trends.

Monday Night: Whatever convection we do see, will be pushing out of
the region as the night goes on. Will likely be warm and muggy with
lows in the 60s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 419 AM EDT Saturday...Decent agreement with the 00z suite
of models, and much of the week should be relatively quiet, but
feature more or less typical summer weather. Most of the week
we'll see temperatures running a bit above normal. Looks sunny and
warm for both Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF start to advect
in some moisture for Thursday, along with having a little more
troughiness develop and perhaps a weak front sliding down from
Quebec. Thus it appears we'll see some showers and t-storms
around. At this point, they appear to be of the garden variety as
I don't see strong dynamics in place. Kept with a model blend and
painted in 30-40% PoPs. More uncertain for Friday. 00Z runs vary
from 12z guidance and keep in clouds/showers rather than having
things clear out more. Really don't have any confidence, so just
went with the full blend with temperatures close to normal and low
chances of showers.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06z Sunday...Mainly VFR except some patchy fog until 12z
for KSLK and KMPV. 

Aft 15z Sat...VFR, with scattered brief MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may contain strong winds and
hail. Showers and storms diminish between 00-03Z.

Winds generally light west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook 06z Sunday through Tuesday...

Sat Ngt...VFR but some localized MVFR/IFR due to patchy fog.

Sun...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.

Mon/Monday night...VFR with scattered brief MVFR/IFR in showers
and thunderstorms with frontal passage.

Tuesday...VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson

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