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SKIVT-L  July 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L July 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 22 Jul 2016 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (274 lines)

Expires:201607222000;;294325
FPUS51 KBTV 221006
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
604 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016


VTZ006-222000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
604 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. NOT AS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 80. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. 

$$


Expires:201607221100;;295174
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      75  55  49 S14       29.78S                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    76  57  51 SW12G20   29.86S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      66  60  81 CALM      29.82R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     68  59  73 MISG      29.81R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    63  58  83 CALM      29.85F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      74  53  48 S10       29.83S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  66  60  81 CALM      29.88R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      58  56  93 CALM      29.88F                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    68  63  84 S5        29.76R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    65  62  92 CALM      29.82R                  
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    63  58  83 S5        29.91R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     61 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     61 N/A N/A NW31        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     75  61  60 S14         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  64  78 S21         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     72  61  68 SW7         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;289767
FXUS61 KBTV 220814
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Fri Jul 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
expected through Saturday as a frontal system moves slowly through
the region but there will be partly sunny rain free periods as
well. It will be hot today with high temperatures in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible on
Monday. Meanwhile Sunday looks dry and seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 414 AM EDT Friday...A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms are moving east across the region early this morning as
WSW low-level jet of 45 kts as seen on KTYX VAD advects moisture
and interacts with short wave trof moving through the region.
Strong upper level drying noted in the WV image behind this
feature.

Today the shortwave and any lingering showers/storms will shift
east across area 12-15z for temporary stabilization along with
some shortwave ridging

Model soundings mix down decent dry air advection that should
allow for plenty of sun to develop and thus heat up for high
temperatures reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s especially where
westerly to southwest winds downslope into the valleys.

Surface instability should start to return this afternoon but will
depend on how much dry air gets mixed down to the surface and what
the resulting dew points are. Right now it looks like low to mid
60s should do it which will give us CAPES around 1000 J/kg, some
of the models suggest dew points will be peaking into the upper
60s later in the day when CAPE may rise to 1500 to 2000 J/kg. It
will probably end up somewhere in between.

Very dry mid-levels support downward momentum for potentially
damaging winds and hail given wet bulb zero levels drop below 10K.
0-6km shear values are around 40 kts which also support the severe
potential. SPC outlook has us in the slight chance category for
today.

The main trigger for thunderstorms should be toward late afternoon
and evening hours. Low level instability still prevalent early
and area in closer proximity to approaching stronger nrn stream
shortwave...surface front as well as nose of 300mb and 500mb jets
moving into area by 00z Sat enhancing any lift.

Tonight...Any shower/thunderstorm activity wanes after midnight
but still influenced by northwest cyclonic flow which will keep
shower threat especially across NC-NE Vermont. Could be some
patchy fog around especially where it rains this evening. lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 414 AM EDT Friday...00z guidance suite still inconsistent
with some of the details for Saturday, especially with respect to
the coverage and specific timing of convection. Synoptically, a
potent shortwave, currently moving into the far reaches of western
Ontario will move east- southeast over the next 36 hours and
should be reaching into our area sometime Saturday afternoon. The
dynamics are expected to kick off thunderstorms (actually, there
will likely be a cluster of thunderstorms as well with that
shortwave that will move southeast out of Quebec and into our
region). Each model has a differing evolution of the convection,
and is again a symptom of just how sensitive the models are to
this type of weather pattern that is driven by mixed layers,
elevated and low level instability and boundary layer details.
Taking a blend of the models suggests that we'll have CAPE values
perhaps up to 1000 J/kg which is decent enough to drive
convection. Not seeing any strong signals with other convective
indices to suggest additional severe t-storms. GFS hints at a bit
of an elevated mixed layer (EML) but not the NAM. NAM has 30-40kts
of shear, GFS is less than 30kt. Suppose we can't totally rule out
a stronger storm with gusty winds here or there. Looks like the
highest chances for storms will be from mid-day through the
evening and more so from the 'Dacks and points eastward. SPC has
this same region marked with "Marginal Risk" and at this point,
that seems like a good assessment.

Storms come to an end during the evening. An upper ridge moves over
the region for Sunday. If you want a day with no weather worries for
outdoor activities, Sunday will be the day.

Temperatures both days will probably be within a couple of degrees
of normal. Upper 70s to lower 80s. A bit humid on Saturday, but in
the wake of the upper trough, drier air will come on in as flow
becomes northerly. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Friday...No huge changes with the overall
synoptic pattern depicted by the 00z guidance. In general our
area will be underneath westerly flow. One moderately strong
shortwave comes across somewhere in the late Monday/early Tuesday
timeframe. Some instability depicted in the models, as well as
decent 0-6km shear (GFS has 40-50kt), however the big question is
timing. If all of this comes together with peak heating time
Monday afternoon, we would have the chance for strong/severe
t-storms. If it comes through at night, then it's nothing much
more than showers with embedded rumbles of thunder. 00Z GFS is a
little slower than it's previous runs and suggests a Monday night
passage. 00z ECMWF is quicker and suggests Monday could be
somewhat active. At this point, trying to pin this feature down to
within 6 hours is beyond my skill level. Thus have maintained a
more broadbrush forecast indicating roughly 50% chance of t-storms
Monday and Monday night. With the westerly flow, temperatures
aloft do warm a few degrees so we should be a bit warmer than
normal (lower- mid 80s).

Depending on the timing of the Monday/Monday night system, there
could be some residual showers around first thing on Tuesday.
Otherwise Tuesday will be the beginning of a stretch of some fine
mid-summer weather. With westerly flow, temperatures won't vary much
from day to day and will top out several degrees above normal.
Looking for widespread lower/mid 80s into Thursday.  At this point it
looks dry for Wednesday, and pretty much Thursday. Couldn't rule out
an isolated t-storm Thursday however as at least the ECMWF
indicates some moisture around with moderate levels of instability.  
Looks like the next system will be coming in sometime Thursday night
into Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06z Saturday...VFR through 08z with ceilings lowering to
060 agl for much of the area especially near any showers. Band of showers
and thunderstorms forecast to move through the region through sunrise
with passage of upper trough and approaching surface front.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms in the late afternoon or
evening with another wave, again producing mvfr vis in rain.
These storm coincide with daytime heating and may produce gusty
winds and small hail. Lull between rain episodes with no precip
through much of midday. 

Showers and storms will wind down by midnight.

Some minor southwesterly LLWS concerns to 40 kts in the pre-dawn
hours ahead of the potential convection, and included LLWS in KSLK
for a brief time in the morning, otherwise mean southerly flow 6
to 12 kts.

Outlook 06z Saturday through Tuesday...

Fri night-Sat...VFR, with scattered brief MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may contain strong winds and
hail.

Sun...Mainly VFR under weak high pressure.

Mon/Monday night...VFR with scattered brief MVFR/IFR in showers
and thunderstorms with frontal passage.

Tuesday...VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
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September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
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August 2010, Week 3
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August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
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January 2010, Week 4
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December 2009, Week 5
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October 2009, Week 3
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October 2009, Week 1
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September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
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August 2009, Week 4
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August 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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June 2008, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 1
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