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SKIVT-L  July 2016, Week 5

SKIVT-L July 2016, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 30 Jul 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (223 lines)

Expires:201607302000;;681964
FPUS51 KBTV 300711
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
309 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016


VTZ006-302000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
309 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.TODAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201607301100;;689572
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      59  55  87 CALM      30.04R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       54  54 100 CALM      30.09R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       52  51  97 CALM      30.07R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  53  90 MISG      30.03R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      53  52  97 CALM      30.08R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG       55  55 100 CALM      30.04R VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      56  54  93 SE7       30.05R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      57  54  89 CALM      30.04R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      55  54  97 CALM      30.04S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  51  99 CALM      30.06S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      55  53  93 CALM      30.03R FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     54 N/A N/A N12         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     63  59  88 N1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     66  61  82 N13         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  57  72 NW6         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;684020
FXUS61 KBTV 300808
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
408 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low humidity levels, mostly clear skies, and pleasantly warm
temperatures will characterize Saturday, as Canadian high pressure
controls our weather through tonight. Thereafter, a slow moving
upper level disturbance and associated rich moisture moving out
of the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain showers Sunday into
Monday, possible lingering into early Tuesday. High temperatures
will reach the low 80s today, but then generally in the low to
mid 70s for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame with abundant
cloudiness. High pressure returns Wednesday through Friday with
warmer and more humid conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 317 AM EDT Saturday...Tranquil and pleasant weather
conditions through the near-term period. Dry northerly low-level
airstream continues east of 925mb anticyclone centered across swrn
Quebec. This will continue to provide the North Country with
relatively low humidity (2-m dewpoints in the 50s) today. Early
AM valley fog will dissipate by 13Z, and then skies will be mostly
sunny thru the day. With 850mb temps of +11C to +13C at 21Z per
00Z GFS, looking for highs generally in the upr 70s to lower 80s.
10-meter winds 14-22Z generally N 5-9 mph, except locally NE
across far nrn NY. PoPs NIL.

Continued quiet tonight, though will see some mid-upper level
clouds increasing from SW-NE after midnight as slow-moving 500mb
trough shifts newd from OH into PA/wrn NY. Included slight chance
of showers s-central VT toward 12Z Sunday, but most likely
scenario is that associated shower activity remains south of the
entire forecast area until during the day Sunday. Overnight lows
mid-upr 50s, except locally around 60F s-central VT valleys where
clouds inhibit radiative cooling. Some patchy valley fog is
possible nrn valleys after 06Z Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM EDT Saturday...The 00z suite of guidance remains
consistent with the general idea of a broad slow moving upper
level trough crossing the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon into
the North Country by late Monday. The surface low that develops
will be south of the forecast area but guidance is still quite
disparate between solutions. Where the surface low sets up and the
convergence boundary develops will have dramatic effects on the
area that ends up being the bulls eye for precip. The GFS and GEM
models have a 2-3 inch bulls eye along the Saint Lawrence river
where as the ECMWF has the 3 inch bulls eye over the MA/CT/NY
border, and the NAM has a 2 inch hot spot over near Binghamton NY.
So in essence, its still a bit difficult to pin point where the
heaviest rain will fall. So I went with a consensus blend of 50%
new guidance and 50% previous forecast to trend the QPF towards
the latest guidance. I ended up with a broad 1-2inch swath of
precip across much of the area from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

With that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, there will be
some ponding of water in low lying areas and in areas of poor
drainage. Given the lack of continuity in location, I dont have
confidence in any sort of flood hazards especially due to the
potential for much of the precip to fall over areas in drought
conditions.

Temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s and with dewpoints in
the upper 50s to near 60, instability isn't great. As such I
continued the idea of mainly rain showers with an isolated chance
of thunder across the area. Overnight lows will be warmer with the
rainfall but are still expected to drop into the mid 60s. With
precip still falling and overcast skies expected, Monday should
be below normal with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 404 AM EDT Saturday...Early in the morning Tuesday there
may be a few lingering wrap around rain showers as the trough
swings through. Northerly to northwesterly winds should keep much
of the precip isolated to higher terrain locations. Then by mid
week a ridge builds in and heights rise. 925mb temps warm
throughout and by Thursday they are in the 24-26C range based on a
warm GFS solution. That may be a tad overdone but even so thats
supportive of max temps Thursday and Friday into the lower to mid 90s.
With that trend continuing from both the previous 00z and 12z
forecasts I continued to trend warmer in the extended by bumping
up our locally produced "Superblend" of models to show max temps
each day in the upper 80s to near 90 in the CT river valley.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Localized LIFR fog SLK/MPV thru 12Z Sat,
then SKC-FEW250 with light N-NE winds daylight hrs areawide.
Continued VFR tonight with increasing mid-upr level clouds mainly
after 06Z Sunday. Some chance of localized early AM fog SLK/MPV
once again 06-12Z Sunday.

Outlook 12z Sunday through Wednesday...

12z Sunday-00z Tuesday: Mainly VFR early Sunday, but then
intervals of MVFR in shower activity Sunday afternoon through
Monday with slow moving upper trough.

00Z Tuesday through Wednesday: Upper trough brings lingering
showers Monday night into early Tuesday with periods of MVFR and
brief IFR possible. Then clearing with VFR conditions as high
pressure returns Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. May see
areas of nocturnal fog 06-12Z Wednesday SLK/MPV with localized
LIFR conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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August 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
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August 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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