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SKIVT-L  August 2016, Week 5

SKIVT-L August 2016, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 31 Aug 2016 06:50:04 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (241 lines)

Expires:201608312000;;734136
FPUS51 KBTV 310959
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
557 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016


VTZ006-312000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
557 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 70. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201608311100;;735327
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    70  58  65 S6        29.92F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    60  58  92 CALM      30.00S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    62  60  93 CALM      29.97F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     61  59  93 MISG      29.95R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  59  58  97 CALM      29.99S VSB 3/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    69  58  69 CALM      29.95S                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    60  56  86 SE7       29.98F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    57  54  89 CALM      29.98F                  
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  64  64  99 S5        29.92F                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      61  60  97 CALM      29.97R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    56  54  93 CALM      30.00S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     59 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A NW25        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     68  63  83 SE6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     70  64  83 S15         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A    N/A N/A N/A S6          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;727895
FXUS61 KBTV 310737
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
337 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region today with scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected. The front will pass south of the region
tonight ushering in cooler and mainly dry weather for Thursday
onward into the first half of the upcoming weekend. Building high
pressure spells a return to warm and dry summerlike weather for
Sunday into the early portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast generally remains on
track for today and will feature our only noteworthy chance of
rainfall over the next week. The primary focus for precipitation
today will be a forerunner surface trough draped west to east
across our area. This feature lies in advance of a stronger cold
front currently off to our north which will swing through the area
later tonight. Latest satellite analysis shows a band of 1.2 to
1.6 inch PWATs being advected along the trough and this moisture
will interact with nominal instability and modest deep layer shear
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area
today. The best coverage should occur across central and northern
counties into southern Ontario/Quebec where low level convergence
and surface moisture pooling should be the greatest. While mid-
level lapse rates and wind fields are relatively modest, a few
cells may trend on the stronger side across the north this
afternoon, especially if some partial sunshine occurs. However,
the overall severe threat is quite low with latest SREF calibrated
severe probabilities below 5 percent and confined to the far north
only. Given the above trends I'll maintain solid chance to likely
pops this afternoon into this evening - again, with highest
coverage central and north where locally heavy downpours will be
possible given the moist airmass. Highs today a blend of available
guidance, supporting highs closer to GFS MOS values in the 70s to
around 80F. Winds light south to southwesterly 5 to 10 mph.

By tonight, our well advertised cold front will sweep through the
area with scattered showers/storms exiting east and south as winds
trend light north/northwesterly over time. Still looking at plenty
of clouds, especially central and south with some partial clearing
possible northwest. Low temperatures still hold slightly above
normal (mid 50s to lower 60s) given later arrival of windshift
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...Deep trough slowly drops across region
Thu-Thu Ngt-Fri with surface High building into fa. Models really
dry things out but gotta believe enough low level moisture with
daytime heating and upslope flow to ring some isolated mtn showers
thus a slight to low chance for Thu.

Otherwise...predominatly dry cool flow across fa with 850 mb temps
dropping from 13-14C Wed to 9-10C by 00z Fri and around 8C Friday.
Similar 925mb temps fall to 14-16C Thu and 12-14C on Fri. 

Cold pool at all levels and surface ridge growing across FA means
the coldest night Friday night with lows primarily in the 40s with
L50s along the lakeshore and possibly some upper 30s in Adirondacks
and NE VT but frost not expected. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...I want to say that this is going to be a 
straight-up forecast with building upper level ridge across fa
sliding east as holiday weekend progresses thus dry with
moderating temperatures during the period.

Largely I think this works, BUT GFS and Canadian hinted yesterday
that weakeness in steering currents underneath this ridge and
Atlantic blocking may warrant a watchful eye to TD#9 for early next
week. Now...ECMWF and other medium long range models are acting
similar in trends BUT details are EVERYWHERE. 

Again...still feelinitial consensus still works but a watchful eye,
especially coastal offices. At the very least...dangerous rip
currents will likely impact east coast beaches during holiday
weekend and will ask local media to relay that threat for those
still planning last summer trip to coastal beaches with AOA
Seasonable temperatures in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 14Z with sct/bkn cigs
from 050-100 AGL at most terminals. A few showers may encroach
toward KMSS/KSLK toward 12Z per output from a few of the hi-res
models. However, paucity of current activity upstream across
southern Ontario leaves low confidence of occurrence and will not
include in the forecast at this point. After 14Z surface trough
will swing into the area with scattered showers and a few storms
expected. Mainly VFR continues, though brief MVFR/IFR possible
and turbulence with any heavier convective cores. Severe weather
is not expected at this point. Given scattered nature of
convective coverage, only VCSH mentioned in forecast at this point
and we'll be able to fine tune this better later today once
activity develops. Surface trough departs south by 00Z with cold
front approaching from the northwest late. General coverage of
shower/storm activity should wane over time with loss of heating,
but enough dynamic support aloft to continue mention of VCSH.
Winds light through 12Z, then trending south to southwesterly 6 to
12 knots thereafter.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... 
Wed night: LCL MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms tapering
off. 
Thu-Fri: A few light showers/sprinkles possible with local
MVFR cigs but confined mainly to the mtns on Fri. 
Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR with building surface high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Of note: August 2016 is poised to set the record for the warmest
August on record at Burlington, VT (KBTV). The current monthly
average temperature sits at 73.8F as of yesterday, with the
current monthly record being 73.1 set back in 1947. Given today's
warmth this record will be broken. Additionally, it looks certain
that Massena, NY (KMSS) will have their second warmest August on
record.

Finally, meteorological summer (June-August) at KBTV is set to be
the second or third warmest on record. Final August and summer
stats for KBTV and other first order sites will be sent out later
this week. Records for KBTV go back to 1884.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...JMG/Sisson
CLIMATE...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
January 2009, Week 5
January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
January 2009, Week 1
December 2008, Week 5
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December 2008, Week 3
December 2008, Week 2
December 2008, Week 1
November 2008, Week 5
November 2008, Week 4
November 2008, Week 3
November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
October 2008, Week 5
October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
January 2008, Week 4
January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
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May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
August 2005, Week 5
August 2005, Week 4
August 2005, Week 3
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
April 2005, Week 5
April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 1
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January 2004, Week 1
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November 2003, Week 3
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
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January 2002, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
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March 2001, Week 3
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February 2000, Week 2
February 2000, Week 1
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January 2000, Week 3
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December 1999, Week 5
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