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SKIVT-L  August 2016, Week 5

SKIVT-L August 2016, Week 5

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 29 Aug 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201608290800;;625533
FPUS51 KBTV 290526
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
124 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016


VTZ006-290800-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
124 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.REST OF TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201608291100;;636647
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    72  63  73 N6        30.07R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    69  62  78 W13G21    30.11S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    68  62  81 NW3       30.08S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     67  63  87 MISG      30.04R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      66  64  93 W8        30.08S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      67  67 100 CALM      30.09R                  
RUTLAND*       PTCLDY    71  65  81 W7        30.08S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    65  62  90 N3        30.07S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      66  64  94 W6        30.07R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    65  62  87 NW8       30.07S                  
BENNINGTON       N/A     68  65  90 CALM      30.10S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     63 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     64 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A NW35G48     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     70  66  88 W7          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     72  66  83 NW13        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     75  61  60 NW9         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;631787
FXUS61 KBTV 290831
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
431 AM EDT Mon Aug 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front continues to move across the North Country
this morning with some clouds and a wind shift to the northwest.
These clouds will dissipate by midday with breezy northwest winds
at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts expected. Temperatures will
warm into the 70s today and cooler into the 40s and 50s tonight
under clear skies and light winds. The next chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms will arrive on Wednesday
afternoon...associated with another cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 419 AM EDT Monday...Water vapor shows large area of
subsidence/dry air behind short wave energy moving into northern
NY. This dry air will quickly overspread the region this morning
with mostly sunny skies developing...except for some fair weather
clouds over the mountains. A spot shower early this morning is
possible along the boundary across eastern and southern VT...but
current radar is quiet as best dynamics shift to our southeast.
Area soundings show good mixing this afternoon with steepening low
level lapse rates...supporting surface wind gusts to 25 mph or
so...with good momentum transfer. VAD profiles at 925mb to 850mb
shows winds have shifts at KTYX and KCXX indicating low level cold
air advection. Progged 850mb temps are expected to fall between
10-12c by 18z today...but with current temps still in the mid 60s
to lower 70s...expect afternoon highs on the warmer side of
guidance. Thinking mainly 70s to lower 80s. 

For tonight...1026mb surface high pressure over the northern Great
Lakes shifts into our cwa...with clear skies and light terrain
driven winds anticipated. These ideal excellent cooling conditions
will support low 40s slk/northeast kingdom to m/u 50s Champlain
Valley near Lake Champlain. Upper 30s are possible at slk...but
will depend upon areal coverage of fog. Based on upstream obs
thinking areas of fog are likely in the climo favored areas
between 06z and 12z. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Quiet weather to start the short term
on Tuesday with surface high pressure in control of regional
conditions. Averaged 925 mb thermal progs support blended model
max temps from the mid 70s to lower 80s under sunny/partly sunny
skies.

Pattern begins to change by Tuesday night, and especially into
Wednesday as a seasonably deep H5 upper trough and surface cold
front dig southward into the northeast. Better moisture initially
off to our northwest Tuesday night, so just token slight/very low
chance pops far north late/toward morning. Surface front then
progresses south through the area on Wednesday with better moisture
advection, low level convergence and modest instability. Thus the
idea of solid chance pops for showers/thunder still look on track,
especially given expected fropa during diurnal heating maximum.
Temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 411 AM EDT Monday...Most of the long term will feature our
first modified autumn-like airmass of the season as upper trough
digs south into the area and lifts out east and north over time.
Scattered showers/storms still a good bet Wednesday evening as
front departs east and south, then variable clouds into Thursday
with perhaps a few light mountain showers/sprinkles given modified
cold pool aloft will be advecting into the region. Temperatures
will trend below normal, though remain pleasantly mild with lows
in the 50s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Looking further out, generally quiet and dry weather is expected
from Friday onward into next Saturday as modified Canadian airmass
builds atop the area. Temperatures will remain pleasantly mild with
lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Slowly
building heights and warmth then expected from Sunday onward into
early next week as upper ridge becomes reestablished across the
eastern conus with mean background flow trending
south/southwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Aviation challenge will be ifr potential at
slk this morning associated with low cigs. Current surface
analysis shows cold front near the international border with
isolated showers. Have some vcsh mention in tafs early this
morning. Otherwise...as wind shift to the northwest early this
morning...some upslope clouds will develop with potential ifr cigs
at slk and mvfr at btv/mpv. Have used tempo between 09-12z to
highlight ifr cigs at slk with sct mvfr cigs in prevailing group
at btv toward sunrise. Winds becoming breezy after 15z with some
gusts between 20 and 25 knots anticipated...before dropping off
around sunset this evening. Any low clouds will transition into
some fair weather cumulus...especially in the mountains...before
clear skies develop by evening. 

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...
Surface high pres with some patchy valley fog possible at slk/mpv
between 08z-12z tuesday. Next surface boundary with scattered
showers/storms arrives on weds with some brief mvfr cigs/vis
possible in the heavier convective elements. Mainly vfr thursday
and friday with developing ridge of high pressure...with early
morning fog possible with lifr conditions at mpv/slk between
08-12z.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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