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SKIVT-L  October 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 15 Oct 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (290 lines)

Expires:201610152000;;892025
FPUS51 KBTV 150705
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
303 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016


VTZ006-152000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
303 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.TODAY...AREAS OF FROST THIS MORNING. SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S.

$$


Expires:201610151100;;900426
ASUS41 KBTV 151030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLEAR 34 30 85 CALM 30.41S
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 25 24 96 CALM 30.45S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 27 25 92 CALM 30.45R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 28 26 92 MISG 30.43F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 27 26 97 CALM 30.44R
MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 30 30 100 CALM 30.42R
RUTLAND* CLEAR 31 28 89 SE8 30.42S WCI 23
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 27 24 89 CALM 30.46S
HIGHGATE* FAIR 32 30 92 SE3 30.41S
NEWPORT* FAIR 28 26 95 SW5 30.43R WCI 22
BENNINGTON CLEAR 28 25 88 CALM 30.41S
SUTTON* N/A 27 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 34 N/A N/A SW6 N/A WCI 29

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 41 36 81 SE10 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 45 41 87 S15 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 37 34 87 SE5 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;893726
FXUS61 KBTV 150752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A nice start to the weekend today with plentiful sunshine today
and temperatures steadily warming. South winds will be increasing
later today and tonight ahead of a cold front. The front moves
through the North Country on Sunday with light showers. A period
of well above normal temperatures is expected for early next week
with limited chances for precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday... A chilly start this morning across
the North Country as high pressure still remains in control. While
the coldest temperatures in the mid/upper 20s have occurred in the
Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont where the growing season
has already been declared ended, temperatures still support at
least frost conditions in the advisory/warning areas. However,
still a few more hours of cooling left to go. Frost and freeze
headlines remain valid and are in effect until 9 am.

High pressure will continue to advance eastward through the day. As
it does so, expect southerly return flow to increase resulting in
wind speeds from 5 to 15 mph, highest in the channeled Champlain
and St. Lawrence Valleys. Full sunshine will result in warming
temperatures but will also steepen low-level lapse rates and we'll
mix down drier air in the low-levels. While today stands to be an
outstanding fall day, the main concern for today will be for fire
weather this afternoon...given how dry it has been, low afternoon
relative humidities and the increasing winds. More on that in the
fire weather AFD section below. Temps warm to highs in the lower
to mid 60s, except in the upper 50s in/around the mountains.

For tonight: Southerly pressure gradient will continue to increase
through the entire evening, along with a west-to-east
lowering/thickening of cloud cover particularly after midnight. On
the wind front, BTV-4km output show 30 to 40 kt 925 mb low-level
jet overnight in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. While
that won't fully mix down, it nonetheless will lead to a better-
mixed atmosphere in these localized areas. These valley locations
stand to be several degrees warmer for low temperatures than the
outlying colder hollows in eastern Vermont and the Adirondacks.
I've therefore chosen to blend in some of the warmer raw guidance
in for tonight's lows, a couple degrees warmer than MOS. They
stand to range from the 40s to the lower 50s, again tending
highest in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...The primary feature in the
Sunday/Monday time frame will be a weak frontal zone/trough that
will bring about an increase in cloud cover and scattered showers.
This front will come through in a weakening phase on Sunday with
negligible baroclinicity, though enough moisture and synoptic-
scale lift to allow light QPF totals in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch
range (slightly less in the immediate Champlain/CT River Valleys
due to shadowing). It will remain modestly breezy with high
temperatures continued mild despite the increasing cloud cover -
60s.

By Sunday night areal coverage of showers should wane and sink south
as frontal boundary washes out and trends stationary to our immediate
south. As alluded to above, baroclinicity is lacking with this
feature as evident in model-blended 925 mb thermal profiles which
only drop slightly across the far north and change little
central/south. Given this idea and the fact that developing light
northerly flow will likely foster lingering post-frontal stratus,
overnight low temperatures should mainly hold on the mild side
in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Monday the old frontal zone, or what's left of it will return
north through the day as background synoptic flow trends southerly
over time. Skies will generally trend partly cloudy as drier air and
high pressure off to our northeast will attempt to filter southwest
into the area. As the boundary lifts northward later in the day the
better threat of lingering clouds and threat of a few showers will
occur across our western counties in closer proximity to stronger
warm thermal advection. Mean 925 mb thermal progs support mild highs
ranging through the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Saturday...By Monday night into Tuesday the old
front will have lifted through the area in response to low
pressure lifting through the Great Lakes states. Have maintained
blended chance pops, mainly across the north through this period
though I must admit these may be generous as recent model trends
suggest better dynamics may lift further north into southern
Canada. That said, quite a warm airmass (for mid to late October)
will surge into the region on fairly robust southwesterly flow.
Indeed, latest GFS 925 mb temperatures range from +16 to +19C
north to south across our area on Tuesday supporting highs well
into the 70s for many locales. This is some 15 degrees or so above
normal.

After a mild Tuesday night (50s to around 60) parent system cold
front will drop through the area on Wednesday with a renewed threat
of a few showers. Current timing of the front suggests an afternoon
passage such that another very mild day is in store for most spots -
mid 60s to lower 70s.

Behind this front a trend toward more seasonable autumn weather is
expected with daily highs in the 50s to around 60 for the Thursday-
Saturday time frame. A quick look medium range model output does
however suggest plenty of uncertainty in the large scale background
flow pattern and resultant potential for precipitation. Players may
(or may not) include an anomalous digging eastern Conus trough, a
cutoff Ohio Valley low or a hybrid subtropical east coast low. Time
will tell, and at this point have just broadbrushed our area with
some generic chance pops until we can geta better handle on the
larger-scale flow pattern in a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR through the period. A few
inconsequential cirrus clouds working their way southward
overnight atop the large dome of high pressure in place. Winds
generally calm overnight but will increase from the south on
Saturday into the 8 to 12 knot range, with channeled south gusts
to 22 kts at BTV and MSS.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...

06Z - 18z Sunday: VFR under high pressure. Gusty southerly
surface winds, especially the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys.
Gusts over 25kts possible Saturday night and Sunday.

18z Sunday - 12z Monday: VFR/MVFR in showers associated with cold
front.

12z Monday - 00z Tuesday: VFR under weak high pressure.

00z Tuesday - 12z Wednesday: VFR with intervals MVFR showers
associated with a frontal system. Potential for gusty
south/southwest winds at BTV and MSS on Tuesday.

12z Wednesday onward: VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...The potential for fire weather
concerns exists today. Various fuels, such as fallen leaves, dried
grass and dead tree branches are quite dry. Keetch-Byram Drought
Index (KDBI) values at some locations are around 500, which are
values well above normal and is an indicator of the long-term
dryness. Afternoon relative humidities will drop into the 20 to 30
percent range, which will further dry out fuels. There will be a
southerly wind component as well with speeds in the 10 to 15 mph
range, tending to be the highest in the Champlain Valley. It still
appears that the 1 pm to 5 pm timeframe today is when winds will
be the strongest and relative humidities the lowest. These
conditions would have the greatest impact on any fires that were
to start.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 352 AM EDT Saturday...While conditions remain below Lake
Wind Advisory criteria through the early afternoon, south winds
will be on the increase today. By early this evening, expect winds
in the 15 to 25 kt range with gusts to 30 knots, with choppy waves
of 2 to 4 feet. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed later
today to address potentially hazardous boating conditions, and
these conditions may last into a good part of Sunday.

Interests on Lake Champlain should monitor updated lake wind and
wave forecasts today. Inexperienced mariners on small craft
should be prepared to dock small craft near shore as winds
and waves increase by this evening.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-009-
     011.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Loconto
FIRE WEATHER...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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