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SKIVT-L  October 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 17 Oct 2016 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (304 lines)

Expires:201610172000;;999334
FPUS51 KBTV 171030
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016


VTZ006-172000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
627 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

.TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. 

$$


Expires:201610171100;;999345
ASUS41 KBTV 171030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    50  49  96 CALM      29.92S FOG              
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    52  52 100 CALM      29.96R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       50  49  96 CALM      29.93R VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  51 100 MISG      29.90R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      46  46  98 NE3       29.93S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG      N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.92S VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    57  57 100 CALM      29.93R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    50  48  93 CALM      29.93R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    58  57  98 N3        29.92S FOG              
NEWPORT*       FAIR      51  51  99 CALM      29.92R FOG              
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    61  57  87 SW3       29.94R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     50 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A W26         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  55  94 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     59  57  94 SW2         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     54  52  94 SE2         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;999579
FXUS61 KBTV 171038
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
638 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Overcast skies areas of light fog early this morning give way to
variable cloudiness today. Clouds then increase as a strong warm
front lifts northeast across the North Country, bringing showers
and a possible rumble of thunder. Well above normal temperatures
and breezy conditions for Tuesday precede a cold frontal passage
on Tuesday night. Above normal temperatures continue into midweek,
with the weather pattern turning more unsettled late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 638 AM EDT Monday...Issued an early update for two
purposes: to add patchy fog in the forecast into mid-morning and
to get temperatures better in line. METARs and reports from
spotters indicate that fog has been dense in isolated spots this
morning. While the trend is for improvement, it will likely
continue to impact the morning commute before lifting as the cold
front - and its associated increase in north winds and dry air
advection - begin to lift out areas of mist or fog into the mid-
morning hours. For more specific details, see the Special Weather
Statement issued earlier.

Other than that, the other main update was to adjust the hourly
temperatures generally up a few degrees into the next few hours.
The cold front still is slowly making its way out of Quebec and as
such, houry temperatures have generally been several degrees
warmer than conveyed in the grids. So I made some changes to try
to get those better in line. Otherwise, the forecast for the rest
of the day still looks on track. 

Previous near-term discussion issued at 400 AM Monday follows...

We start the first day of the workweek off cloudy across southern
Vermont. However much of the rest of the North Country is stuck in
areas of radiational fog/mist due to skies having cleared,
relatively high dewpoints for late October and wet ground from
yesterday's rainfall. Still awaiting the actual cold front which
is located along the US/Canada border at this point. The fog/mist
should be temporary as once this boundary slips southward across
our area, north winds and dry air advection should lift the fog.
However, it may restrict visibilities into the morning commute.
Morning commuters should drive with a little extra caution in
areas of fog this morning. Front will continue to sag southward
through today, while areas to the south see prevailing overcast
begin to erode by the afternoon hours. So, expect to see variable
cloud cover today, greatest to the south with more sun to the
north. Highs today are pretty tough to pin down given the cold
advection to the north and the cloud cover to the south. I've
shown temperatures being pretty uniform, give or take a couple
degrees, as areas that receive more sunshine also are cooler this
morning at 925 mb than the cloudier areas in southern Vermont.
I've shown highs ranging from the upper 50s across northern
Vermont to the lower 60s in southern Vermont and the St. Lawrence
Valley.

For tonight: Clouds should increase from southwest to northeast
from rather strong isentropic ascent owing to an approaching warm
front tied to a low pressure that will pass well to our northwest.
A number of forecast models both global and higher-resolution CAMs
generally agree on precipitation timing between about 00z through
10z and primarily across our northern and western counties.
Strongest warm thermal advection between 925-700 mb takes place
during that period of time, driven by a low-level jet of 35-45 kts
as progged by the BTV-4km WRF. There are also indications from the
00z NAM and BTV-4km of elevated instability (Showalter values as
low as -2) as the front lifts northeast. So, PoPs increase into
the the high-Likely range across the northern half of the CWA,
with lower slight/low Chance range across southern VT further
removed from the stronger lift. While rain is the predominant
weather, I've included isolated thunder as well from the St.
Lawrence Valley, northern Champlain Valley of NY/VT and
northern/central VT given the negative showalter indices. It
should be more of an exception than the rule, however. Rainfall
amounts range from a few hundreths in southern Vermont up to a
third of an inch along the northern border counties. Temperatures
tonight are also challenging as the potential for cooler temps in
shallow northeast drainage flow in the St. Lawrence Valley amidst
strong warm advection aloft and overcast. Given the clouds, temps
should be slow to cool and likely rise after midnight. Lows range
from the low to mid 40s across the Northeast Kingdom and northern
St. Lawrence Valley, to the middle 50s in southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Monday...Warm front will then clear north and
east of the area on Tuesday with skies gradually trending partly
sunny from south to north through the morning and afternoon hours.
Clouds may be somewhat more stubborn across northeastern VT where
the front will clear the latest. Most of the showers associated
with the warm front will clear north as well through the morning
hours, though with system's cold front entering from the west by
later in the afternoon, a general re-blossoming of showers will
likely occur across northern and western counties late. 925 mb
temperatures surge into the +18 to +20C range by afternoon, and
depending on how much partial sun occurs max temperatures may
approach records in a few spots as readings climb into the upper
70s/lower 80s(slightly cooler north central/northeastern VT -
lower to mid 70s). The other variable of note will be gusty winds
in the warm sector across the western half of the forecast area
during the afternoon/early evening. Latest blended progs support
south/southwesterly gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range in the
Champlain Valley and Dacks, and 35 to 45 mph in the SLV which will
be close to advisory criteria. Please see our updated hazardous
weather outlook for details.

By Tuesday night the aforementioned weak cold front slides southward
through the area with scattered showers, which will tend to decrease
in areal coverage later at night as drier air filters into the area.
Low temperatures to hold on the mild side - mainly 50s to around 60.

On Wednesday broad southwesterly synoptic scale flow continues
across the area with weak high pressure providing another great
autumn afternoon. Blended model progs support partly sunny skies and
unseasonably mild temperatures in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Monday...Looking into the late week time frame
this morning's medium range models continue to support the idea
that a fairly sharp upper trough will evolve across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes and trudge slowly east over time. The
boundary between this feature and mild western Atlantic ridging
will come in the form of a developing sharp frontal system
oriented southwest to northeast across PA/NY/VT as backing low to
mid level flow enhances low level convergence and baroclinicity.
Deeper moisture streaming northeast along the front will likely
bring some our most welcomed rainfall in quite some time with
blended model QPF in the Thursday/Friday time frame ranging from
0.25 to 0.75 inches far southeast, 0.50 to 1.0 inches from the
southern Dacks through central/northeastern VT, and 1 to as much
as 2 inches for the northern Dacks/northwestern VT/SLV. Of course
some changes in these QPF amounts are likely in the coming days
but for now this idea seems generally reasonable. Temperatures may
trend quite tricky during this period as surface boundary
character may trend anafrontal, and will separate much milder air
to the south and east from a modified CP airmass north and west. I
wouldn't be surprised to see a 20 degree difference northwest to
southeast on Thursday when frontal zone is bisecting our area.

By next weekend the frontal zone will be pushed east as parent upper
trough swings into the area. Still a few/scattered showers around
but dry stretches through the period as well. Temperatures will ease
back to more typical autumnlike readings as highs hold steady in the
upper 40s to mid 50s while overnight lows range from the mid 30s to
mid 40s or so.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR/MVFR will trend MVFR/IFR to at times
LIFR over the next 3-5 hrs across the TAFs. Ongoing BKN/OVC
VFR/MVFR ceilings occuring but as skies clear out from north to
south look for areas of mist/fog begin to develop given the
saturated nature of the low-level air mass. Any mist or fog should
be short-lived however with clearing occurring once the secondary
front advances southward across the area by around 9-12z. After
12z, winds shift to light northerly with generally VFR ceilings.

Conditions then begin to deteriorate back to a VFR/MVFR from
southwest to northeast after 21z as a warm front returns
northward. MVFR rain appears the most likely before 06z at MSS.
Advancing 925-850 mb low-level jet supports some potential for
low-level speed and directional wind shear after 03z mainly at MSS
but possibly at SLK as well.

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday...

06z - 12z Tuesday: VFR with intervals MVFR showers associated
with a warm front.

12z Tuesday - 00z Wednesday: MVFR improves to VFR. Gusty
south/southwest winds possible at MSS and BTV.

00z Wednesday - 12z Wednesday: VFR deteriorates to MVFR with
showers along a cold front.

12z Wednesday - 00z Thursday: VFR under weak high pressure. 

00z Thursday onward: Trending MVFR with rain.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Loconto

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2010, Week 3
November 2010, Week 2
November 2010, Week 1
October 2010, Week 5
October 2010, Week 4
October 2010, Week 3
October 2010, Week 2
October 2010, Week 1
September 2010, Week 5
September 2010, Week 4
September 2010, Week 3
September 2010, Week 2
September 2010, Week 1
August 2010, Week 5
August 2010, Week 4
August 2010, Week 3
August 2010, Week 2
August 2010, Week 1
July 2010, Week 5
July 2010, Week 4
July 2010, Week 3
July 2010, Week 2
July 2010, Week 1
June 2010, Week 5
June 2010, Week 4
June 2010, Week 3
June 2010, Week 2
June 2010, Week 1
May 2010, Week 5
May 2010, Week 4
May 2010, Week 3
May 2010, Week 2
May 2010, Week 1
April 2010, Week 5
April 2010, Week 4
April 2010, Week 3
April 2010, Week 2
April 2010, Week 1
March 2010, Week 5
March 2010, Week 4
March 2010, Week 3
March 2010, Week 2
March 2010, Week 1
February 2010, Week 4
February 2010, Week 3
February 2010, Week 2
February 2010, Week 1
January 2010, Week 5
January 2010, Week 4
January 2010, Week 3
January 2010, Week 2
January 2010, Week 1
December 2009, Week 5
December 2009, Week 4
December 2009, Week 3
December 2009, Week 2
December 2009, Week 1
November 2009, Week 5
November 2009, Week 4
November 2009, Week 3
November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
August 2009, Week 4
August 2009, Week 3
August 2009, Week 2
August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
July 2009, Week 4
July 2009, Week 3
July 2009, Week 2
July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
June 2009, Week 4
June 2009, Week 3
June 2009, Week 2
June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
May 2009, Week 3
May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
April 2009, Week 4
April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
March 2009, Week 4
March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
February 2009, Week 4
February 2009, Week 3
February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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January 2009, Week 4
January 2009, Week 3
January 2009, Week 2
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December 2008, Week 3
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November 2008, Week 2
November 2008, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 4
October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
September 2008, Week 5
September 2008, Week 4
September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
August 2008, Week 5
August 2008, Week 4
August 2008, Week 3
August 2008, Week 2
August 2008, Week 1
July 2008, Week 5
July 2008, Week 4
July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
June 2008, Week 2
June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
May 2008, Week 3
May 2008, Week 2
May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
March 2008, Week 4
March 2008, Week 3
March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
February 2008, Week 4
February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
January 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
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December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
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November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
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June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
April 2006, Week 5
April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
April 2006, Week 1
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March 2006, Week 4
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March 2006, Week 1
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 1
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November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
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September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
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January 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 3
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February 2004, Week 1
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 4
April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
March 2002, Week 5
March 2002, Week 4
March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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May 2001, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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February 2001, Week 3
February 2001, Week 2
February 2001, Week 1
January 2001, Week 5
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January 2001, Week 3
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