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SKIVT-L  October 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 18 Oct 2016 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (267 lines)

Expires:201610182000;;048502
FPUS51 KBTV 181024
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016


VTZ006-182000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
40 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...BECOMING WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 50. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201610181100;;048556
ASUS41 KBTV 181030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    61  59  93 S5        29.81F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    58  51  78 S8        29.92S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  55  51  86 S5        29.87S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  50  83 MISG      29.89F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    54  47  78 SE7       29.92R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.84F HAZE             
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    63  61  94 SE12      29.88S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    56  52  86 NE3       29.94R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    53  52  97 CALM      29.79F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    56  49  76 S6        29.87S                  
BENNINGTON     FOG       60  58  92 CALM      29.88S VSB 1/4          
ISLAND POND*     N/A     52 N/A N/A NE3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     54 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     55 N/A N/A S21         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  55  94 S10         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  57 100 S18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  55  94 SW9         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;048521
FXUS61 KBTV 181028
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north of the area today with unseasonably
warm temperatures expected. A weak cold front with scattered showers
will cross the area this evening and tonight. Mild and increasingly
unsettled weather is expected across the area by Thursday into
Friday, followed by much cooler, showery weather next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 628 AM EDT Tuesday...Modest adjustments to hourly
temperature and dewpoint trends as of 615 am to match current
observational trends. Warm front has surged northward into most of
the St Lawrence Valley, arcing across the Adirondacks into the
Champlain Valley at this hour and continues to march northeast.
Temperatures in the southern SLV are already in the mid to upper
60s in places like Wanakena, Edwards and Canton, with KBTV
currently sitting at 64 with a 60 dewpoint. Meanwhile, KPB sits at
51F and KMSS remains with a light northeasterly flow sitting at 49
degrees. Given these stark disparities it will be difficult to
exactly depict hourly evolution in these fields through the
morning hours giving cloud cover, position of front and timing of
pbl mixing. Nonetheless high temperature/wind/pop forecasts
generally remain on track for this afternoon (see below). Have a
great day.

Prior discussion...
An interesting day weatherwise across our area as a strong warm
front lifts northeast through the area with very warm temperatures
expected in many locales. Other than a scattered showers/isolated
storms far north and east this morning, much of the day should
trend very mild and dry as skies trend partly sunny in all but far
northeastern counties. 24-hour back trajectory analysis at 21Z
suggests source air arrives from southern Ohio in the Champlain
Valley, and from near the KY/TN border across our northern NY
counties. Values in these areas were in the lower to mid-80s
yesterday, so readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s seem quite
plausible from the Champlain Valley west this afternoon. Further
east and north, the warm front will begin to slow as it encounters
a more stubborn maritime airmass across eastern New England. In
these northeastern counties clouds will likely linger a good
portion of the day and keep resultant temperatures somewhat cooler
(upper 60s to lower 70s). These values are still some 10 to 15
degrees above normal however.

In addition to the mild temperatures, south/southwesterly winds will
trend quite breezy to windy from the Champlain Valley west by this
afternoon. Indeed, gusts into the 25-35 mph range will be likely in
the Champlain Valley and Adirondacks with channeled flow boosting
gusts into the 40-50 mph range in the SLV where a Wind Advisory is
in effect from noon to 800 pm local time. By later this
afternoon/early evening a weak cold front will approach from the
northwest with scattered shower activity developing along an
associated pre-frontal trough across northern NY counties. Given
some nominal boundary layer instability and latest 3-hrly SREF/MOS t-
progs have offered an outside shot of an isolated storm or two in
these areas as well.

Front then sinks through the area tonight with scattered
showers/isolated storms as winds abate fairly quickly. Precipitation
coverage should wane in coverage after midnight as front clears
south. Larger-scale background flow remains deep southwesterly
across and behind the boundary however, so an appreciable airmass
change is not expected with lows generally holding on the mild side
in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Tuesday...Cold front continues to depart to the
east with the North Country. Westerly flow with cooler
temperatures and dry conditions prevail for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with brief period of surface high pressure over
the region. Temperatures will remain above normal with maxes in
the 60s and mins in the 40s. Clouds increase Wednesday night ahead
of approaching low pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 502 AM EDT Tuesday...Pattern changes with potential long
duration rain event. Mid-upper level trough will dig south and
east from south central Canada, towards the Mississippi into the
southern Ohio Valley late Thursday. At the surface, a low pressure
system will gradually strengthen and bring a warm front into the
North Country late Thursday. This low track up to Ohio River
valley, continuing NEwd over PA by Friday morning. GFS and NAM
depict strong area of frontogenetic forcing over portions of the
North Country Friday. Mid level trough becomes negatively tilted
late Friday as it interacts with coastal low followed by rapid
strengthening of the surface low come Saturday morning. As the the
surface low moves east into Maine, cold air filters in on NW flow.
540 thickness line moves into the area, indicating possibility for
some snow showers Saturday morning, mainly in the higher
elevations. Rain continues with possible breaks as dry slot may
develop on Saturday. The low becomes closed and stacked during the
day, with several pieces of vorticity embedded in cyclonic flow
keeping a chance for precipitation through at least Sunday. Storm
total QPF may vary widely based on where deformation zone develops
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR prevalent through 12Z,
then trending SCT/BKN VFR thereafter as warm front lifts through
the region. Scattered showers may affect northern terminals 12Z or
so with passage of front, with a return of showers possible late
afternoon/evening (20Z onward) as cold front approaches from the
west. 

A strong low level jet 30-40kts will develop late tonight into
mid-morning over the Saint Lawrence Valley and with northeasterly
drainage flow expect low level wind shear to be prominent at MSS
from 09-14Z. Expect veering winds with the warm front gradually
trending southeast 6-10 kts overnight and early morning. By mid
morning tomorrow the low level jet will have moved over most of
the North Country and winds across the Saint Lawrence and
Champlain Valleys will become very gusty. Expect S-SW wind gusts
of 25-35 kts developing at SLK/BTV by afternoon with sustained
winds of 15-25 kts. At KMSS southwesterly gusts to 40 kts are
possible.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...

06z Wednesday - 12z Wednesday: VFR deteriorates to MVFR with
showers along a cold front.

12z Wednesday - 00z Thursday: VFR under weak high pressure. 

00z Thursday through Friday: Trending MVFR by 00z Thursday with
MVFR to IFR at times through parts of Friday as steady rain
advances northeastward.

&&

.MARINE...
A warm front lifting northward across the area this morning will
allow increasingly strong southerly flow to develop on Lake
Champlain by late morning into the afternoon hours. Sustained
winds of 20 to 30 kts are expected with gusts to near 35 kts. This
will create choppy to rough conditions on open waters and in
bays/inlets with open southerly exposures. These conditions may
pose a hazard to small craft and inexperienced mariners. A cold
front will cross the area tonight with scattered showers as winds
abate and veer to west/northwesterly over time.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/Sisson
MARINE...JMG

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October 2007, Week 5
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