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SKIVT-L  October 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L October 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 20 Oct 2016 06:50:03 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (239 lines)

Expires:201610202000;;139101
FPUS51 KBTV 200758
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016


VTZ006-202000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
355 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. 

$$


Expires:201610201100;;145488
ASUS41 KBTV 201030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    48  43  82 E3        30.20R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  39  93 CALM      30.24S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    39  37  92 CALM      30.24R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     40  38  93 MISG      30.22R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      38  37  98 CALM      30.23S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      46  46 100 CALM      30.20R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    46  42  86 E6        30.21R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       39  37  92 CALM      30.25R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      45  42  90 SE3       30.20R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      38  37  99 CALM      30.22S                  
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    42  41  96 CALM      30.18R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     34 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A S9          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     54  45  71 SE7         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     52  48  87 N1          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  46  93 S2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;143742
FXUS61 KBTV 200934
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
534 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strengthening surface low pressure system will bring widespread
rain to the North Country Thursday afternoon through Sunday.
Occasionally heavy rainfall expected, especially this evening into
early Friday. As the front pushes east of the area by early next
week a return to seasonably cooler weather is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 510 AM EDT Thursday...Today looks to be the beginning of a
pattern change as 500mb trough continues to dig south and
gradually east over the central USA. Rain will encroach upon the
St Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks in the early afternoon
associated with frontal system moving in from the SW. Question
remains how far north and east it will spread before the deepening
trough and surface low riding up the frontal boundary causes area
of rain to pivot north and west sometime on Friday.

Strong low level deformation associated with front moves into St
Lawrence this afternoon into tonight, leading to heavier rainfall
for Nrn NY, before weakening on Friday. Another consideration for
Friday is sub-tropical system weakening as it heads north far off
the Carolina coast, but moisture looks to get absorbed or wrapped
into the low affecting the Northeast, and could result in
resurgence of heavier precip over eastern VT late Friday into
Friday night, per the 00Z ECMWF. This may be dependent on when the
500mb trough becomes more neutral or negatively tilted late
Friday.

Winds another concern as strong low level jet enters the region
this afternoon. Southerly jet of 40-55kts at 850mb stays over the
North Country through Friday. This will lead to strong winds
across the higher terrain. Best chances for strong winds to mix
into the valleys would be early Friday as the precip shield pivots
slightly NW, allowing for breaks in precip over VT. Have gusts up
to 15-25kts across most of the area on Friday, before the surface
low tracks over the area.

In summary, cloudy and wet pattern expected throughout the near
term with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s today as we
remain in the warm sector. Tonight temperatures remain mild in the
mid 40s to upper 50s. Forecast max temperatures tricky on Friday
as the surface low and associated front traverse across the North
Country. Timing of FROPA will dictate wind shift of NW-N and
colder air filtering in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 534 AM EDT Thursday...Models in good agreement with
bringing abundant moisture into the north country through the
period. Have gone with categorical pops for Friday night and
Saturday. Expecting precipitation to become more showery Saturday
night, as surface low pressure area moves north into Quebec
Saturday night. Models showing a closed upper low will move into
the region late Saturday and Saturday night which will produce
dynamical cooling aloft, so expecting rain to change to snow over
the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains late
Saturday into Saturday night. Some locally heavy snow is possible
over the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 534 AM EDT Thursday...Expecting rainfall amounts from
Thursday through Sunday to be around 2 to 4 inches across the
north country. Some locally heavy snowfall is possible Sunday over
the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on
Sunday. The region will remain under cyclonic flow from the
surface low pressure area over eastern Canada Sunday through
Monday night, so have chance pops for rain and snow shower in the
forecast. A high pressure area over the western Great Lakes on
Tuesday will build slowly east and bring mainly fair and dry
weather to the north country Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06z Friday...VFR conditions except at KSLK with IFR to
VLIFR possible this morning. MPV could see brief period of
LIFR/VLIFR centered around 10Z. In the late morning ceilings
lower to around 4000-5000 feet as a front will bring rain showers
to most terminals. Expect rain to affect MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV by early
afternoon. Possible periods of MVFR with confidence of MVFR cigs
and vsbys at MSS/SLK around 19Z onward. PBG/BTV/MPV could see MVFR
conditions after 00Z Friday.

Winds vary greatly due to proximity to front. Overall expect
southerly winds, possibly gusting at times in the afternoon as low
level jet moves over the North Country late this afternoon into
evening. Cannot rule out possible LLWS, especially heading into
the overnight.

Outlook 06z Friday through Monday...

06z Friday through 00z Monday: A prolonged period of unsettled
conditions is expected with widespread MVFR/IFR in periods of
rain.

00z Monday through 00z Tuesday: A mix of VFR/MVFR...with VFR/IFR
possible in showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 510 AM EDT Thursday...A widespread and long duration
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts expected to
start midday Thursday and ending Sunday. There will be some breaks
throughout the event, especially across portions of Vermont. Given
most of the region is in moderate to severe drought...we are not
anticipating any widespread hydro issues. However...some minor
urban and street flooding is possible associated with the heavier
rainfall rates on Friday with leaves clogging storm drains.
Otherwise...some modest rises in local rivers and streams are
likely this weekend...but no widespread flooding is anticipated.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
HYDROLOGY...Taber/KGM

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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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December 2007, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 5
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October 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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February 2004, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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March 2001, Week 5
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