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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 21 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (269 lines)

Expires:201611212100;;705915
FPUS51 KBTV 211143
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016


VTZ006-212100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
641 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201611211200;;705445
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 30 20 66 W15G29 29.34R WCI 19
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 26 20 77 W10G20 29.31R WCI 16
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 27 20 75 SW10 29.30R WCI 17
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 29 23 78 MISG 29.27R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 26 22 86 S5 29.27R WCI 20
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 27 27 100 CALM 29.37R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 29 15 56 W9G18 29.36R WCI 20
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 28 24 86 CALM 29.30R
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 26 22 84 SW13G20 29.25R WCI 15
BENNINGTON LGT SNOW 26 22 84 VRB6 29.44R FOG WCI 19
SUTTON* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 14 N/A N/A CALM N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 32 28 86 W28G40 N/A WCI 18
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 25 74 W30 N/A WCI 18
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 23 69 SW9 N/A WCI 24

$$


Expires:No;;700096
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure centered north of Vermont this morning will
slowly shift eastward across northern Maine tonight and into the
Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday night. A moist
northwesterly flow around this low pressure system will
maintain periods of light snow across the North Country today,
before becoming focused across the higher elevations of the
Northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for tonight.
West to northwest surface winds will be moderately strong and
gusty today as well. High pressure briefly brings drier conditions
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure moving
eastward from the Ohio Valley likely brings our next chance for
precipitation, which may result in a mix of light snow and rain
on Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Monday...IR imagery early this morning reveals
 center of quasi- stationary mid-level low north of VT, about
70NM north of Sherbrooke, Que. It's been interesting to note
on sat imagery that the main conveyor of moisture and trowel
airstream is affecting areas from wrn St. Lawrence County SSEWD
across central into s-central NY, within band of strong 850mb
flow of 45-50kts. Most of the persistent snowfall the past 3
hours or so in our forecast area has been confined to far wrn
and swrn St. Lawrence County. Lighter flow conditions currently
across the North Country with weaker forcing for ascent,
yielding just some intermittent light snow and flurries during
the pre- dawn hrs. As the low shifts a bit further to the east
this morning, there's a chance we'll see another period of some
accumulating snowfall, amounting to a dusting to 2" in the
valleys, and 2-4" across the higher terrain. In terms of
orographics, steep lapse rates and strengthening flow suggest an
 unblocked flow regime with Froude #s on the BTV-4km WRF
increasing to well above 1 after 13Z this morning. This should
favor the spine of the Greens and points to the east across
e-central/nern VT into this afternoon. Also, noting AOT pavement
 temps generally 28-31F range across VT. This suggests some icy
spots are possible on area roadways, and could result in a slow
AM commute in spots. So, despite relative lack of snowfall
currently, will maintain going Winter Storm Warning, with a
winter weather advisory in the immediate VT side of the
Champlain Valley and across Essex VT/Caledonia/Orange for
potentially slick travel conditions. High temperatures today
generally upr 20s to lower 30s. It will be somewhat brisk, with
W-WNW winds increasing to 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph as
gradient increases sw of 983mb surface low to our north and
east.

For tonight, most of the high resolution NWP guidance hangs onto
the idea of continued orographic snow showers across the nrn
Adirondacks and central/nrn Greens, while activity diminishes
to a few flurries elsewhere. Could see an additional 1-3" from
Jay Peak swd to Mt. Mansfield, as well as the higher summits of
the Adirondacks tonight. May see a few breaks in the overcast
immediately east of the Adirondacks and in downslope areas into
 the CT river Valley, while remaining overcast elsewhere. Not
much variability in temperatures tonight with continued brisk
conditions and well- mixed PBL. Lows tonight will mainly be in
the low-mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...Occluded low is moving out of Maine
and into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Northwest flow as the
low moves on will continue to lead to snow showers in the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Greens through Tuesday
afternoon before coming to an end late Tuesday night. The
Northeast Kingdom could also see some lingering snow showers
through Tuesday afternoon as well before tapering off by the
evening. Higher elevations and NEK could see about 1-2" while
the valleys could see some light scattered dustings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...High pressure moves in and with it will
bring a short-lived period of fair and quiet weather for the
day before next system approaches late Wednesday night. 00Z GFS
continues to slide into agreement with the 00Z ECMWF and bring
the onset of precipitation into the CWA after 06Z on
Thanksgiving Day, at least for now limiting the potential
impacts for the Pre-Thanksgiving Day travel timeframe. While the
GFS continues to be the more aggressive model with
precipitation amounts, with the delayed arrival the potential
for a wide-ranging wintry mix is also gone and now looks to be
more snow showers in the higher elevations and rain for the
lower valleys. This could still lead to Thanksgiving Day travel
to be challenging, especially in the higher elevations.


For Friday, the next low pressure system from the Great Lakes
Region moves in brings with it another round of isolated snow
showers, switching to rain showers for the valley floors Friday
afternoon. As the low continues in on Saturday the precip looks
to be enhanced by wrap around moisture from a coastal low
southeast of southern New England. With that, most areas could
see some snow showers with NEK and the Greens seeing some
heavier activity, especially if the GFS solution plays out as
the precip over the Eastern Greens looks be much more aggressive
than the ECMWF. It is something worth keeping an eye on as the
weekend draws near.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Widespread IFR/MVFR in light/moderate
snows through the period. Snows will become more focused to
terrain across VT over time, but will persist in earnest across
northern NY through much of the period. Only exception to cigs
will be mainly VFR/occasional MVFR at KPBG terminal due to
downsloping effects. Winds westerly 8 to 12 kts and gusty in
the 15-25 kt range through the forecast period. Higher winds
aloft will likely create enhanced turbulence atop the boundary
layer in the 2500-4000 range through the period as well.

06Z Tue - 00Z Wed: Widespread IFR/MVFR to trend MVFR/VFR over
time as upper low pulls away and snows taper to snow showers and
gradually wane. KSLK likely to hold onto lower cigs/vsbys the
longest.

00Z Wed - 06Z Thu: Trending mainly VFR with weak high pressure.

06Z Thu onward: Trending mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in scattered
rain/snow showers.

00Z

&&

.MARINE...
Maintained Lake Wind Advisory through today, and may also need
to continue for tonight. Strong gradient flow west of slowly
departing low across southern Quebec resulting in surface winds
of 20-25kt vcnty of Colchester Reef. Will see those winds
continue today with relatively cold air (around 30F) blowing
across lake water that remains in the upr 40s to near 50
degrees. Wave heights will generally build to 2-4 feet, highest
toward the VT side of the broad portion of the lake.
Intermittent light snow today will occasionally lower visibility
down to 1 mile, but generally returning to unrestricted visibility
 tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002-
     004-005-007-009>011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-
     006-008-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Banacos

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September 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 2
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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