Expires:201611182100;;553975
FPUS51 KBTV 181048
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
546 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016


VTZ006-182100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
546 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID
20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201611181200;;555727
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    41  40  96 CALM      30.17R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  36  92 CALM      30.18S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    38  36  92 CALM      30.18R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  37  92 MISG      30.13S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      36  34  92 N6        30.16R WCI  31          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.17S HAZE             
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     37  33  85 CALM      30.15R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      36  36  99 CALM      30.17S FOG              
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    38  37  97 CALM      30.16S FOG              
BENNINGTON     FOG       30  29  96 CALM      30.15S VSB 1            
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A N12         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  37  87 SW5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  39  93 NW8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  39  93 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;556071
FXUS61 KBTV 181140
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge of high pressure will continue to keep the North Country 
dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday, before a 
deep mid-level trough and an associated cold front bring rain 
and terrain driven snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. The 
chance for precipitation will continue through Monday night, 
with persistent cold air advection seeing temperatures trend 
slightly below normal. This colder air will change rain showers 
to widespread snow showers, even in the valleys.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 640 AM EST Friday...Low level moisture in the form of low
clouds and fog will take some time to erode this morning. Areas
that remained mostly clear overnight...generally most of 
northern New York will wake to temperatures in the upper 20s to 
low 30s, while Vermont generally stayed in the 30s. Expect 
temperatures to recover quickly in plentiful sunshine expected 
by late morning/early afternoon. Winds remain light under high 
pressure, mostly variable but shifting out of the south 
today/tonight.
 
Previous discussion...High pressure is the main feature of 
the near term with dry conditions, clearing skies and light 
winds. Limited mixing will keep surface temperatures in the mid 
50s to mid 60s today. Even though 925mb temperatures will range 
from 12C to 15C, BUFKIT models show strong inversion keeps 
mixing to about 950mb or lower. 

Winds shift out of the south late in the day into the overnight
but remain less than 10 kts. Ridge axis shifts east as 
deepening mid level trough moves into the Central Great Lakes 
early Saturday. While models continue to show warming aloft 
overnight, clear skies and light to calm winds will likely see 
some cooling overnight. Eastern VT will be coldest - in the low 
30s - as rest of the area will range from the upper 30s to mid 
40s and warm mountain tops.

925mb temperatures still around 13C during the day Saturday 
with slightly greater mixing will see max temperatures a few 
degrees warmer than today. Clouds will increase from the west, 
but expect precip and strong cold front to hold off til after 
sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 401 AM EST Friday...Active period of weather as large 
upper level low pressure system moves into the region. 
Widespread precipitation will develop over the area late 
Saturday night and continue into Sunday before slowly becoming 
more terrain driven Sunday night. Colder air aloft will begin 
moving in late Saturday night and allow for snow levels to drop 
Saturday night across northern New York and eventually across 
Vermont on Sunday. Snow level during this time period should get
down into the 1500-2000 foot range and should see at least a 
couple of inches during this time period. As the upper level low
moves east Sunday night that will put the area in a more 
favorable northwest flow pattern and orographic snows should 
really develop at that point and increase snow amounts. At the 
same time...colder air will finally make it down to the lower 
levels and just about everyone will have the potential to see 
some snow by Monday morning. At this time the area in the lower 
elevations that could see the most snow will be out across the 
Saint Lawrence Valley of New York. At this time...could see a 
dusting to 2 inches at the lower elevations in Vermont and the 
Champlain Valley of New York...several inches over the higher 
terrain of the Green Mountains...and potentially 4 to 8 inches 
across the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks of New
York. This area and the higher terrain in the Green Mountains 
will have to be monitored for potential headlines from this 
system...especially with the fact that the threat of more snow 
will continue into Monday and Monday night. See long term 
discussion below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Friday...Upper low moves northeast Monday and 
Monday night...but this continues to keep the area in a 
favorable upslope snow pattern. Can see additional accumulations
in the mountains and the Saint Lawrence Valley as more moisture
works into the region. This combined with the snow on Sunday 
and Sunday night has the makings for a long duration snow event 
resulting in heavy snowfall for the mountains. Eventually this 
system moves far enough northeast on Tuesday to allow for snow 
to come to an end with an upper ridge moving in on Wednesday for
drier weather. Another trough quickly moves in for Thursday and
Thursday night to increase precipitation chances once again 
before exiting to the east on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly MVFR conditions this morning with
VLIFR fog at SLK will improve to VFR by late morning. As SLK 
has worst flight conditions, it will take this site longest to 
recover between 10am and noon. BUFKIT models support this 
thinking with decreasing low level RH and mixing up to about 
950-925mb. 

VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least 06Z 
Saturday with light winds as we remain under high pressure. 
These light winds look to shift out of the south for all but MSS
this evening and overnight. 

Chance for MPV to develop some MVFR fog during the early 
morning hours of Saturday.

Expect high pressure to keep winds light throughout the period.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Sat - 00Z Sat: VFR should prevail with under high pressure.

00Z Sun - 12Z Tue: VFR trending to MVFR/IFR as a strong cold 
front brings rain/snow showers to the region. Gusty winds and 
LLWS possible.

12Z Tue - 00Z Wed: MVFR trending to VFR with high pressure 
returning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...KGM

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