Expires:201611202100;;657018
FPUS51 KBTV 201133
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016


VTZ006-202100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
630 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

.TODAY...RAIN OR SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201611201200;;656808
ASUS41 KBTV 201130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  41  38  89 NW7       29.41S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    40  37  89 NW3       29.38F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    40  34  79 N12G20    29.40F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  33  92 MISG      29.35F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    41  38  91 NW7       29.36F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  38  38 100 N10       29.38S WCI  31          
RUTLAND*       RAIN      37  37 100 S8        29.35S WCI  31          
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  42  39  89 NE5       29.32F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    38  37  95 CALM      29.43F                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    38  36  92 NW7       29.39F FOG              
BENNINGTON     SNOW      33  30  88 SW5       29.39F VSB 1/2 WCI  29  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A E1          N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  37  87 NW8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  39  93 NW17        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     43  36  75 N16         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;657279
FXUS61 KBTV 201149
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 AM EST Sun Nov 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level disturbance across the eastern Great Lakes
along with a deepening surface low across southern New England
will bring unsettled weather across the North COuntry today
through Monday. Precipitation will be a mix of rain and higher
elevation snow as it develops early this morning across northern
New York, and during the course of the day across Vermont. Cold
air filtering in from the west will allow snow levels to drop
changing precipitation over to all snow by tonight. Moderate to
heavy snow accumulations are expected across the Northern
Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valleys, and along the spine of the
Green Mountains. Lesser snowfall accumulations expected in the
Champlain Valley and Connecticut Valleys, but as temperatures
drop, slick road conditions are expected with a slow Monday
morning commute. Mountain snow showers gradually wind down
Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a brief period of dry
weather with high pressure through Wednesday. Another area of
low pressure approaching from the west may bring additional rain
and snow for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 323 AM EST Sunday...Forecast remains on track and Winter
Storm Warnings continue for the Saint Lawrence Valley, the 
northern Adirondacks, and portions of central Vermont including
the western slopes of the Green Mountains.

Impressive IR presentation early this morning with digging,
negative tilt trough extending from southeastern Ontario to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Strong upper divergence and UVV resulting in
cloud top cooling across central NY into nern PA/nwrn NJ with
main precipitation axis. Seeing strong sfc pressure falls as
cyclogenesis takes place across CT at 08Z, and this surface low
will track NNEWD along to just east of the CT river valley thru
the course of today. Inverted trough extends nwd, with axis of 
strong low- level frontogenesis and moderate to heavy
precipitation affection central NY into St. Lawrence County at
08Z. This band will gradually pivot while shifting ewd across
the North Country today, with persist moderate to heavy precip
across especially our nrn NY counties. Recent obs trends and
webcams indicate the transition to snow has occurred at
Wanakena, NY and surrounding areas in St. Lawrence County. So,
anticipate any rain to be quite brief as precip develops ewd
into the nrn Adirondacks next 1-3 hrs. Transition will be a bit
slower in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley with temps 36-38F,
but by late morning to early aftn, strong dynamic cooling with
approaching upper low will also transition rain to snow in the
St. Lawrence Valley with accumulations beginning this aftn.
Travel will be quite difficult across srn St. Lawrence ewd
across the Northern Adirondacks with periods of moderate to
heavy snow today. 

In Vermont, precipitation begins late this morning and into this
aftn for far nern VT. Warmer PBL temps in the low-mid 40s will
bring longer period of lower elevation rainfall, and don't
anticipate any issues in the Champlain Valley thru the daylight
hrs today. Snow accumulations in VT should remain above 1000'
thru 6pm tonight, so will only see road impacts for some of the
higher elevation spots and passes this aftn/early eve. Temps
will gradually fall today, a combination of diabatic cooling and
cold advection with increasing W-NW winds to 10-15 mph this
aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 348 AM EST Sunday...Difficult travel period for many areas
of the North Country with continued snow accumulations,
especially across nrn NY and across central VT. The deepening mid-
980mb surface low tracks nwd into srn Quebec overnight tonight,
with upr low tracking ewd across nrn New England. Will see 
continued dynamic cooling and low-level CAA on backside of the 
low, resulting in rain transitioning to snow down to the valley 
floors by late evening. With PBL temps falling into the upr 20s
 to lower 30s, anticipate a difficult early AM commute with 
slushy and locally icy road conditions making travel quite slow.
The first widespread snowfall of the season also comes with a
lack of antecedent road treatment, thus paved surfaces can be a
bit more prone to being slick. We again emphasize that motorists
should allow extra time to travel Monday morning, including
across the Champlain Valley.  

Otherwise, will see a transition more to a NW flow orographic
precipitation pattern tonight and Monday, as deep layer NW flow
develops...with best snowfall rates across the nrn Adirondacks 
and central/nrn Greens. Kept storm total snowfall amts similar
to previous fcsts, with max amts of 12-18" along the nrn slopes
 of the Adirondacks. Prolonged trowel airstream across the St. 
Lawrence Valley suggests that region will also do quite well in 
this event, with storm total accumulations of 7-12". A bit 
trickier from the Champlain Valley ewd with marginal PBL temps 
and slower transition to snowfall. Still appears 1-3" for the 
immediate Champlain valley, but again, with timing/travel 
impacts for the Monday morning commute. Will see a large 
elevation dependence in VT with western slope of the Green mtn 
communities seeing 4-8" snowfall, and 12"+ along the Green Mtn 
spine from Jay Peak to Mt. Mansfield to Killington peak. May
ultimately need winter weather Advisories surrounding the
warning area for tonight into Monday. Will allow day shift to
assess precip trends. 

Only other concern will be moderately strong winds/wind gusts
during the day Monday. Generally looking at widespread 15-25mph
with gusts to 35 mph in spots. THis will result in blowing and
drifting snow, especially across nrn NY and areas of VT above
1000' or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EST Sunday...Occluded low over northern Maine Monday
night will slowly drag along into the Canadian Maritime 
provinces by mid week. This will leave the North Country in 
cyclonic, northwest flow with wrap around moisture continuing 
to affect the area. Snow showers will continue through Tuesday 
before tapering off and ending by Tuesday afternoon in the 
valleys and late Tuesday night in the higher elevations. 
Additional accumulation between Monday night and Tuesday will be
much lighter than the previous period. Some areas in the 
northern Adirondacks could see an additional 2-4", while the 
northern Green mountains can expect 1-3" and lesser amounts in 
the valleys. 

High pressure will bring a short-lived period of fair and quiet 
weather Tuesday night through Wednesday before the next system 
approaches late Wednesday night. 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF are still in 
disagreement on the timing of the next system as the ECMWF 
builds in stronger ridging through Wednesday evening, slowing 
the system down to mid day on the Thanksgiving. While the GFS is
more aggressive with a weaker ridge and a more progressive 
system that brings in a wide range wintry mix of precipitation 
Wednesday night that could bring with it Thanksgiving holiday 
travel difficulties beginning Wednesday night from west to east.
Right now, the timing is the key so have again stuck with the 
superblend output which shows PoPs ramping up into the 50s for 
the central Adirondacks by Thanksgiving morning in the form of 
snow showers and then a mix of rain showers in the lover 
elevations for the CWA by afternoon with snow showers 
continuing for both the Dacks and Greens into the evening.

For Friday, low pressure system from the Great Lakes Region 
moves in brings with it slightly warmer air and more 
precipitation in the form of rain showers over most areas 
during the day for both Friday and Saturday and transitioning to
snow showers both evenings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...Low pressure system is bringing widespread
precipitation to the region. With that, a mix of MVFR to LIFR 
is across the the region as rain and snow showers have moved 
in. SLK and MSS are currently seeing snow and continue to do so
for the rest of the period, while all other locations are
currently seeing rain. All other stations will trend down
towards IFR/LIFR and see rain switch to snow after 21Z for the
remainder of the period. 

Winds will trend towards the southwest at 10-15 knots, while 
MSS and SLK will see gusts at 15-25 knots along edge of cold 
front after 15Z.

Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday...

12z Mon - 12Z Tue: MVFR/IFR/LIFR as a strong cold front brings 
rain/snow showers to the region. Gusty winds and LLWS possible.

12Z Tue - 00Z Thu: MVFR trending back to VFR with high pressure
returning.

00Z

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VTZ003-006-008-
     016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ026-027-
     029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...MV

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