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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 16 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (219 lines)

Expires:201611162100;;456778
FPUS51 KBTV 161149
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016


VTZ006-162100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
646 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201611161200;;456251
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 16 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    47  45  93 NW6       29.68F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    44  44 100 CALM      29.70F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    43  41  93 CALM      29.69F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  44 100 MISG      29.65F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    45  44  97 CALM      29.67F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.67S FOG              
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  45  45 100 N3        29.67S FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    44  43  96 CALM      29.66S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    44  44  97 CALM      29.68S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    41  40  97 NW5       29.68F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  45  43  93 SW3       29.69S FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     41 N/A N/A SE15        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  45  93 NW2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  46 100 NW12        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  45  87 N2          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;449991
FXUS61 KBTV 160901
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EST Wed Nov 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area over southern New England early this morning
will drift slowly north into Quebec by tonight. This low will
bring a chance of rain showers to the north country today. A 
ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build 
slowly northeast into the region tonight and will remain over 
the north country through Saturday, with fair and dry weather 
expected. The next chance for rain across the north country will
be Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EST Wednesday...An upper trough will swing slowly 
through the region today with a chance of rain showers. 
Expecting skies to remain mainly cloudy today. Temperature 
forecast for today is bit tricky given cloud cover across the 
region, but expecting valley locations to be around 50 today, 
with mainly 40s over the higher elevations. Given cloud cover, 
temperatures should not be as warm as they have been the last 
few days.

Tonight, models showing plenty of low level moisture lingering
across the region, so will go with mostly cloudy skies for
tonight. Models showing 500 mb heights begin to rise over the
region late tonight, as an upper ridge builds northeast from 
the Ohio valley. expecting low tonight to be mainly in the 40s,
except some higher elevation locations will fall into the 30s
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...Quiet weather throughout the short
term as high pressure builds in to the region at the surface 
and aloft. Thursday morning into early afternoon will have 
lingering clouds as low level moisture combined with some 
residual vorticity gradually exits the area throughout the day. 
Expect clouds to clear out for the entire North Country Thursday
night/Friday morning and remain mostly clear throughout the 
rest of the period.

Temperatures will warm as the 500mb ridge crests over the area 
Friday. Models fairly consistent showing 925mb temperatures 
peaking around 12C-14C Friday into Friday night. This will 
result in max temperatures Thursday in the 40s to mid 50s 
increasing on Friday to the 50s and low 60s and slightly warmer 
on Saturday. Min temperatures see a similar trend with Thursday 
night temperatures in the 30s and Friday night about 5-10 
degrees warmer. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...More active period as deep 
negatively tilted 500mb trough approaches from the Great Lakes 
region. 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to differ with regard to 
track and evolution of this feature. GFS brings in precip and 
colder air faster, showing the 500mb trough developing a closed 
low and swinging across the region by Sunday morning. Also has 
associated surface low develop around southern New England and 
track northward towards the St Lawrence River delta by Sunday 
night. ECMWF has 500mb closed low that develops Saturday 
night/Sunday morning similar to track in 12Z run. At this time, 
would favor more delayed onset of precip and slower progression 
of cold air into the North Country based on ECWMF consistency 
and with negatively tilted trough becoming closed low at 500mb 
and the surface expect slower progression. Have therefore held 
likely POPs til Sunday and Sunday night. Greater uncertainty 
with regard to colder air and, therefore, rain transitioning to 
snow. This will be highly dependent on track of low. GFS 
continues to bring in strong CAA on Sunday, resulting in snow 
showers in the high terrain as early as Sunday late morning, 
then the valleys Sunday night. ECMWF delays colder air til 
Monday night. 

We will continue to be under the influence of the large 500mb 
trough through the rest of the period with NW flow keeping snow 
showers in the forecast, especially over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06z Thursday...A mixture of VFR/MFVR/IFR conditions 
are seen across the region as low pressure tracks northeast 
along the New England coast. Most precipitation is over NY for
now and then will pivot back over Vermont around 12Z as the Low
tracks north out of the region. Visibilities will mainly be 6SM
or greater with some brief periods of 3-5SM in heavier spots of
precipitation. After precipitation comes to an end after 14z, 
MVFR conditions will persist through much of the remainder of 
the period with some localized IFR at KMSS/KSLK/KRUT from 
06-16z. Eventually ceilings will trend toward VFR after 20z. 
Winds light through the period.

Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... 
06z Thu - 00Z Fri: Mainly MVFR with periods of VFR as an upper 
trough swing through the region.

00Z Fri - 12Z Sat: VFR under high pressure.

12z Sat - 00Z Mon: VFR trending to MVFR as a strong cold front 
brings rain/snow showers to the region. Gusty winds and LLWS 
possible.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Evenson/MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
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September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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July 2007, Week 5
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July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
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September 2005, Week 2
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August 2005, Week 5
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 1
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November 2004, Week 2
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October 2004, Week 3
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October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 3
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September 2004, Week 1
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August 2004, Week 3
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July 2004, Week 5
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July 2004, Week 3
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June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 3
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April 2004, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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June 2002, Week 5
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April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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