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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 17 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (275 lines)

Expires:201611172100;;505800
FPUS51 KBTV 171132
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016


VTZ006-172100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
629 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN
THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201611171200;;505722
ASUS41 KBTV 171130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 17 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-171200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    45  41  86 CALM      29.96R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    42  40  92 NW8       29.95R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    44  39  82 NW6       29.95R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     44  43  96 MISG      29.89R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    42  40  92 CALM      29.93R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG      N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.96R VSB 1/2          
RUTLAND*       FOG       39  39 100 CALM      29.95R VSB 1/4          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    36  35  96 CALM      29.92R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    42  41  93 NW3       29.97R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    42  40  96 NW5       29.94R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    35  34  96 CALM      29.95S FOG              
SUTTON*          N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A W7          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     32 N/A N/A NW33        N/A  WCI  17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     46  43  87 NW10        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     48  41  76 NW18        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  41 100 SE1         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;506286
FXUS61 KBTV 171143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low level moisture resulting in cloudy skies this morning will 
erode this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region. 
This high pressure will provide fair and dry conditions with 
above normal temperatures through early Saturday, before a 
strong cold front renews chances for rain showers Saturday 
afternoon and possibly some snow for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 642 AM EST Thursday...widespread low level moisture 
persists this morning with widespread low clouds in light NW 
flow. Ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface will build
in from the west. This ridge will help to erode the low clouds,
bringing partly cloudy to clear skies late in the day. 
Temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s as 925mb 
temperatures peak around 2C-4C. Mixing will be limited with 
BUFKIT models showing boundary layer through about 925mb. 

Heading into tonight, mostly clear skies and light to calm 
winds with high pressure overhead will lead to good radiational 
cooling and fog development. Min temperatures will generally be 
in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 aM EST Thursday...The short term challenge will be temps and 
our associated crazy thermal profiles. This period will feature
much above normal temps...but question is how much above 
normal...as mixing will be very limited...especially on Friday. 

Synoptic scale pattern shows mid/upper level ridge axis and weak 
1020 mb surface high pres directly overhead on Friday...this result 
in very light wind profiles. Soundings show a very sharp and shallow 
thermal inversion with very limited mixing to 950mb. Surface temps 
off the btv4km are in the low/mid 50s...while going up in elevation 
around 1000 feet or so...show temps warming into the mid/upper 
50s...associated with the mid slope thermal belt between 1500 and 
3500 feet. Based on this...have mention cooler temps in the 
champlain valley and deeper/protected valleys of central/eastern 
vt...where mixing will be very limited. Thinking highs will range 
from upper 40s/lower 50s valleys to lower/mid 60s in a small axis 
from Gouverneur to Malone on Friday afternoon. Soundings also show 
deep layer in place...so not anticipating any precip...other than 
some patchy morning fog.

Friday night...expecting patchy fog to develop in the deeper valleys 
as low level cross over temps are reached...with a large spread in 
temps anticipated. Warmest values will be found across the midslopes 
and summits associated with a strong low level inversion. Thinking 
lows will range from near freezing valleys to mid/upper 40s 
midslope/valleys. Forecast remains dry.

Saturday...Mid/upper level ridge begins to break down in response to 
strong height falls associated with potent short wave energy and 
surface cold front. Using a model blend between the faster GFS and 
slower NAM/ECMWF solutions has the sharp cold front arriving in the 
SLV by 21z Saturday...with gusty showers and falling temps by 
evening. However...based on very warm thermal axis just prior to 
fropa...thinking surface temps with good mixing will jump into the 
mid/upper 60s across the slv/western dacks midday Saturday...and 
this trend will shift east as front approaches. Expecting low/mid 
60s here in the CPV...and slightly cooler valleys in central/eastern 
vt...due to the limited mixing and front arriving after 
dark...mainly 50s east of the green mtns for highs on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 aM EST Thursday...Active pattern expected with a 
period of accumulating mountains snow showers associated with 
upslope flow likley late Saturday Night into Monday. Still 
plenty of uncertainty with evolution of negatively tilted trof 
and timing of surface boundary across our region on Saturday 
Night into Sunday. Have utilized a model blend for fropa 
timing...which supports front across the dacks between 00z- 
03z...into the champlain valley 03z-06z...and thru most of vt by
12z Sunday. This boundary will be accompanied by a wind shift 
to the west/northwest...along with sharply falling temps and a 
period of precipitation. Leading edge of precip will be 
rain...but as temperatures quickly fall to 0c by 06z Dacks and 
12z Sunday Greens...precip will change to snow in the mountains.
Have noted precip fields associated with boundary are mostly 
post frontal...so most of the precip will fall behind wind 
shift. Another trend noted in the models...has been for 0c 925mb
line to lag behind the initial surge of cold air 
advection...resulting in mainly rain for valley locations on 
Sunday. As boundary layer becomes cool enough to support snow in
the valleys...best deep layer moisture axis is shifted to our 
east...with mainly terrain driven upslope snow likely going into
Sunday Night. Thinking any accumulations on Sunday will be 
confined above 1000 feet...with several inches possible. Lows 
will be around 12z Sunday...with readings ranging from the 
mid/upper 20s mountain summits to near 40f warmer valleys. Highs
Sunday...only climb a degree or two...before falling as 
secondary surge of cooler air arrives after 18z Sunday. Mainly 
20s mountains to mid 30s/lower 40s valleys. 

Latest trends have been for a more progressive mid/upper level 
trof lifting across our region...with initial surface low pres 
tracking to our north...while closing off 5h/7h circulations 
occur directly overhead. This results in best deep layer 
moisture and associated moist conveyor belt being established to
our east and north of our cwa. Precip fields will become more 
terrain focused on Sunday Night into Monday...as favorable 
upslope parameters develop. However...the timing and location of
the closing 5h/7h circulations...along with deepening surface 
low pres to our east...will limit backside moisture advection. 
Will continue to mention likely pops Sunday Night and Monday 
across the northern Dacks and central/northern Green Mountains. 
Several additional inches of snow accumulation is likely in the 
mountains during this period...with higher snow ratios likely 
with the advection of cold air. Thinking a dusting to an inch or
so is possible on the eastern side of the champlain valley by 
Monday morning. 

Strong low level cold air advection develops on Sunday into 
Monday...with models agreeing on the coldest air mass of the 
season across our region. Progged 850mb temps fall between -12c 
and -14c by 12z Monday...with brisk northwest winds. These 
profiles support lows in the single digits/mid teens mountains 
to mid 20s warmer valleys by Monday Morning...with highs only in
the 20s to mid 30s on Monday afternoon. 

Weak ridge of high pres builds into our region on Tuesday into 
Weds...with still some leftover mountains snow showers possible.
Will mention chance pops on Tuesday...but keep weds dry 
attm...with below normal temps continuing. Expecting highs 
mainly upper 20s to upper 30s...with lows teens and 20s. Next 
weak system in the fast westerly flow aloft arrives on Thursday 
with a chance of rain or snow showers. Initial thoughts the 
system looks progressive with a period of snow changing to 
rain...except in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12z Friday...Persistent low level moisture mainly in 
the form of low clouds will slowly erode mid to late morning. 
Flight conditions vary widely this morning will improve to VFR 
by early afternoon. Expect high pressure to keep winds light 
throughout the period. Radiational cooling conditions under the 
high will result in another night of fog development. Expect 
MVFR conditions after 04Z with LIFR/VLIFR to develop at SLK/MPV.
Expect conditions to improve after day break.

Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...

12Z Fri - 18Z Sat: Trend to VFR with high pressure building in.

18z Sat - 00Z Mon: VFR trending to MVFR as a strong cold front 
brings rain/snow showers to the region. Gusty winds and LLWS 
possible.

00z Mon - 00z Tue: MVFR trending to VFR with high pressure
returning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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September 2009, Week 1
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July 2009, Week 1
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 2
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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