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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 19 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (237 lines)

Expires:201611192100;;606922
FPUS51 KBTV 191122
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016


VTZ006-192100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
619 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 30. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND
40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201611191200;;607253
ASUS41 KBTV 191130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      35  32  88 CALM      29.96F                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       29  29 100 CALM      30.05F VSB 3/4          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      28  26  92 CALM      30.02F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  33 100 MISG      30.03S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       28  28  99 CALM      30.04S VSB 1/4          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR     N/A N/A N/A S3        29.97F                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      41  32  70 SE12      30.00F                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    29  26  89 CALM      30.06S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      36  35  96 E5        29.94F WCI  32          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      34  33  97 S5        30.00F WCI  30          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      29  28  96 SE3       30.00F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A W1          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A S14         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  37  76 SE8         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  41  87 S24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  39 100 S9          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;607546
FXUS61 KBTV 191140
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
640 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will be the rule
across the North Country today. Big changes are then expected
tonight through Monday as a large upper level low pressure
system brings widespread precipitation to the area. The
precipitation will begin as rain then change to snow over the
mountains later tonight and Sunday before changing over the snow
at the lower elevations Sunday night and Monday. Given the
longer duration of precipitation...snow amounts will be heavy in
the mountains and across the Saint Lawrence Vally of New York
and north central Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 622 AM EST Saturday...Still dealing with some low clouds 
and fog across the larger valleys...Saint Lawrence...Champlain...
and Connecticut River...but this should be burning off by mid- 
morning. Going forecast has this covered well. Otherwise...today
will be the calm before the storm with upper ridge bringing dry
weather...plenty of sunshine...and above normal temperatures. 
Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Saturday...Winter storm warnings are now in 
effect for the Saint Lawrence Valley...the northern 
Adirondacks...parts of north central Vermont...and the west 
slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Snow levels begin to lower later tonight and Sunday as
widespread precipitation associated with approaching upper low.
Should see levels get down to around 1000 feet during the day on
Sunday so valley rain with snow in the mountains. When the event
really begins to take shape is Sunday night into Monday as the
upper low moves northeast of the region and northwest flow aloft
develops. This will bring colder air in...all the way down to
the valley floors across the entire area overnight Sunday night
through a good part of Monday. The northwest flow will also
enhance upslope flow and with this flow pattern in place all the
way through late on Monday...the mountains should see quite a
bit of snow. Looking at 12-18 inches in the northern Adirondacks
by late Monday and 8 to 14 inches for the west slopes of the
Green Mountains. The Saint Lawrence Valley will also be looking
at 8 to 12 inches of snow with the higher precipitation amounts
expected and they being first in on the low level cold air. Over
north central Vermont looking at 4 to 8 inches. Thus these areas
have now been put into a winter storm warning. One item to keep
an eye on is the Champlain Valley Monday morning with the
potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the morning
commute...which could have an impact despite the lesser snow
amounts. Area may need to be placed in an advisory and will keep
an eye on this potential. Areas in the warning will have
difficult travel because the snow amounts and there will also be
rather gusty winds at the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 304 AM EST Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure over
Northern Maine Monday night will move very slowly east- 
northeastward into New Brunswick with continual moist NW flow 
over much of Northern NY and Vermont through Wednesday. 
Lingering snow showers will continue across the region into 
Tuesday early morning mainly along the Northern Greens and 
Adirondacks due to upslope forcing with about 1-3" but the 
lower valleys will still see some smaller amounts around a trace
to 2 inches. 

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, high pressure will bring short 
reprieve of quieter weather for the day. Progressive mid-upper 
level flow pattern brings in the next frontal system from the 
Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thanksgiving day. 
Major differences continue in low track between 00z GFS and 
ECMWF as seen in earlier model runs, with ECMWF suggesting 
minimal impacts to the North Country and not until late on 
Thanksgiving Day, while the GFS suggests widespread mixed wintry
precipitation is possible with possible travel impacts later 
Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving Day. Have stuck with the
superblend PoPs of 40s- 50s during the period. Will continue to 
monitor this system for the possible effects to the holiday
travel period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Currently seeing a mix of flight conditions
around the region. At KMSS, LIFR conditions continue to persist
but should see improvement back to VFR by 14Z. KMPV is also 
VLIFR and should also see conditions trend back to VFR by 14Z as
 well. All other stations are VFR and should stay that way until
 after 06Z when all stations will drop back down to a mix of 
MVFR - IFR as rain/snow mix moves in with associated cold 
front.
 

Winds should remain light and variable for most of the period 
and trend more towards the southwest at 05-10 knots late in the 
period over the St Lawrence Valley as the front nears.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday...

12Z Sun - 12Z Tue: MVFR/IFR/LIFR as a strong cold front brings 
rain/snow showers to the region. Gusty winds and LLWS possible.

12Z Tue - 00Z Wed: MVFR trending back to VFR with high pressure
 returning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for 
     VTZ003-006-008-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for 
     NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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