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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 21 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (269 lines)

Expires:201611212100;;705915
FPUS51 KBTV 211143
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
641 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016


VTZ006-212100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
641 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO
4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201611211200;;705445
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    30  20  66 W15G29    29.34R WCI  19          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    26  20  77 W10G20    29.31R WCI  16          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    27  20  75 SW10      29.30R WCI  17          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  23  78 MISG      29.27R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    26  22  86 S5        29.27R WCI  20          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    27  27 100 CALM      29.37R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    29  15  56 W9G18     29.36R WCI  20          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    28  24  86 CALM      29.30R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  26  22  84 SW13G20   29.25R WCI  15          
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  26  22  84 VRB6      29.44R FOG     WCI  19  
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     14 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  28  86 W28G40      N/A  WCI  18          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  25  74 W30         N/A  WCI  18          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  23  69 SW9         N/A  WCI  24          

$$


Expires:No;;700096
FXUS61 KBTV 210922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure centered north of Vermont this morning will
slowly shift eastward across northern Maine tonight and into the
Canadian Maritimes Tuesday into Tuesday night. A moist
northwesterly flow around this low pressure system will 
maintain periods of light snow across the North Country today, 
before becoming focused across the higher elevations of the
Northern Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains for tonight. 
West to northwest surface winds will be moderately strong and 
gusty today as well. High pressure briefly brings drier conditions
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure moving 
eastward from the Ohio Valley likely brings our next chance for
precipitation, which may result in a mix of light snow and rain
on Thanksgiving Day.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Monday...IR imagery early this morning reveals
 center of quasi- stationary mid-level low north of VT, about 
70NM north of Sherbrooke, Que. It's been interesting to note 
on sat imagery that the main conveyor of moisture and trowel 
airstream is affecting areas from wrn St. Lawrence County SSEWD
across central into s-central NY, within band of strong 850mb 
flow of 45-50kts. Most of the persistent snowfall the past 3
hours or so in our forecast area has been confined to far wrn
and swrn St. Lawrence County. Lighter flow conditions currently
across the North Country with weaker forcing for ascent, 
yielding just some intermittent light snow and flurries during 
the pre- dawn hrs. As the low shifts a bit further to the east 
this morning, there's a chance we'll see another period of some 
accumulating snowfall, amounting to a dusting to 2" in the 
valleys, and 2-4" across the higher terrain. In terms of 
orographics, steep lapse rates and strengthening flow suggest an
 unblocked flow regime with Froude #s on the BTV-4km WRF 
increasing to well above 1 after 13Z this morning. This should 
favor the spine of the Greens and points to the east across 
e-central/nern VT into this afternoon. Also, noting AOT pavement
 temps generally 28-31F range across VT. This suggests some icy 
spots are possible on area roadways, and could result in a slow
AM commute in spots. So, despite relative lack of snowfall 
currently, will maintain going Winter Storm Warning, with a 
winter weather advisory in the immediate VT side of the 
Champlain Valley and across Essex VT/Caledonia/Orange for 
potentially slick travel conditions. High temperatures today 
generally upr 20s to lower 30s. It will be somewhat brisk, with 
W-WNW winds increasing to 15-25mph with gusts to 35mph as 
gradient increases sw of 983mb surface low to our north and 
east. 

For tonight, most of the high resolution NWP guidance hangs onto
the idea of continued orographic snow showers across the nrn
Adirondacks and central/nrn Greens, while activity diminishes 
to a few flurries elsewhere. Could see an additional 1-3" from 
Jay Peak swd to Mt. Mansfield, as well as the higher summits of 
the Adirondacks tonight. May see a few breaks in the overcast 
immediately east of the Adirondacks and in downslope areas into
 the CT river Valley, while remaining overcast elsewhere. Not 
much variability in temperatures tonight with continued brisk 
conditions and well- mixed PBL. Lows tonight will mainly be in 
the low-mid 20s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...Occluded low is moving out of Maine 
and into the Canadian Maritime provinces. Northwest flow as the 
low moves on will continue to lead to snow showers in the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Greens through Tuesday 
afternoon before coming to an end late Tuesday night. The 
Northeast Kingdom could also see some lingering snow showers 
through Tuesday afternoon as well before tapering off by the 
evening. Higher elevations and NEK could see about 1-2" while 
the valleys could see some light scattered dustings.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Monday...High pressure moves in and with it will 
bring a short-lived period of fair and quiet weather for the 
day before next system approaches late Wednesday night. 00Z GFS 
continues to slide into agreement with the 00Z ECMWF and bring 
the onset of precipitation into the CWA after 06Z on 
Thanksgiving Day, at least for now limiting the potential 
impacts for the Pre-Thanksgiving Day travel timeframe. While the
GFS continues to be the more aggressive model with 
precipitation amounts, with the delayed arrival the potential 
for a wide-ranging wintry mix is also gone and now looks to be 
more snow showers in the higher elevations and rain for the 
lower valleys. This could still lead to Thanksgiving Day travel 
to be challenging, especially in the higher elevations. 


For Friday, the next low pressure system from the Great Lakes 
Region moves in brings with it another round of isolated snow 
showers, switching to rain showers for the valley floors Friday 
afternoon. As the low continues in on Saturday the precip looks 
to be enhanced by wrap around moisture from a coastal low 
southeast of southern New England. With that, most areas could 
see some snow showers with NEK and the Greens seeing some 
heavier activity, especially if the GFS solution plays out as 
the precip over the Eastern Greens looks be much more aggressive 
than the ECMWF. It is something worth keeping an eye on as the 
weekend draws near.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Widespread IFR/MVFR in light/moderate 
snows through the period. Snows will become more focused to 
terrain across VT over time, but will persist in earnest across
northern NY through much of the period. Only exception to cigs
will be mainly VFR/occasional MVFR at KPBG terminal due to 
downsloping effects. Winds westerly 8 to 12 kts and gusty in 
the 15-25 kt range through the forecast period. Higher winds 
aloft will likely create enhanced turbulence atop the boundary 
layer in the 2500-4000 range through the period as well.

06Z Tue - 00Z Wed: Widespread IFR/MVFR to trend MVFR/VFR over 
time as upper low pulls away and snows taper to snow showers and
gradually wane. KSLK likely to hold onto lower cigs/vsbys the 
longest.

00Z Wed - 06Z Thu: Trending mainly VFR with weak high pressure.

06Z Thu onward: Trending mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in scattered
rain/snow showers. 

00Z

&&

.MARINE...
Maintained Lake Wind Advisory through today, and may also need
to continue for tonight. Strong gradient flow west of slowly
departing low across southern Quebec resulting in surface winds
of 20-25kt vcnty of Colchester Reef. Will see those winds
continue today with relatively cold air (around 30F) blowing
across lake water that remains in the upr 40s to near 50
degrees. Wave heights will generally build to 2-4 feet, highest
toward the VT side of the broad portion of the lake.
Intermittent light snow today will occasionally lower visibility
down to 1 mile, but generally returning to unrestricted visibility
 tonight and Tuesday. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ002-
     004-005-007-009>011.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-
     006-008-016>019.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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December 2008, Week 3
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September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 3
February 2008, Week 2
February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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January 2008, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 1
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