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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 15 Nov 2016 06:50:26 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (242 lines)

Expires:201611152100;;397385
FPUS51 KBTV 150802
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016


VTZ006-152100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
300 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201611151200;;405892
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    39  33  79 CALM      29.99S                  
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    35  32  88 CALM      30.04R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      30.02R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     31  29  92 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      33  31  89 CALM      30.03R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      37  32  79 CALM      29.98S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    37  29  72 S3        29.99S                  
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    33  29  85 CALM      30.03R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      37  32  82 CALM      29.99R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      31  30  94 SW3       30.01S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    31  26  82 SE5       29.97R WCI  26          
SUTTON*          N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     37 N/A N/A SE15        N/A  WCI  28          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  41  87 S5          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  37  76 SE8         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     39  34  81 SE3         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;400064
FXUS61 KBTV 150905
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
405 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure area developing off the mid Atlantic coast today
will move slowly northeast and be over Cape Cod tonight, and
then over Maine on Wednesday. This low pressure area will bring
rain to the north country late this afternoon and tonight, and a
chance of showers on Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure at the
surface and aloft will build into the north country on Thursday
and will remain over the region through Saturday, with fair and
dry weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EST Tuesday...A low pressure area developing off 
the mid Atlantic coast early this morning will bring rain into 
southern Vermont early this afternoon. Expecting partly sunny 
skies this morning across most of the region, and then becoming 
cloudy this afternoon. Expecting rain to move north across the 
remainder of Vermont and the Adirondacks and Champlain valley by
 late this afternoon and early this evening. Models indicating 
that the Saint Lawrence valley in northern New York will stay 
dry with partly sunny skies through the day today. Have gone 
with the highest pops for today mainly across eastern Vermont 
and have lowered them from east to west across the region for 
today. With skies starting out partly sunny today, expecting 
most of the region will get into the 50s for highs today.

Tonight, have gone with categorical pops from the Adirondacks
eastward for rain, and will just go with chance pops for the
Saint Lawrence valley in northern New York. Expecting rain to
taper off to showers after midnight tonight. Some of the higher
summits of the Adirondacks could see some snow after midnight
tonight. Expecting lows tonight to be mainly in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...Surface low pressure lifting 
northeast on Wednesday will decrease areal coverage of showers 
but low level moisture and mid level trough will continue to 
affect the North Country with terrain driven rain showers, 
possible some wet flakes at the summits, lingering showers in 
the Northeast Kingdom and widespread cloud cover. Wednesday 
night will see ridge of high pressure at the surface building 
into the region which will be followed by ridging at 500mb early
Thursday. With NAM and GFS continuing to show persistent low 
level moisture through Thursday, especially across portions of 
the Greens and Northeast Kingdom, cannot rule out rule out 
terrain driven showers Wednesday night, tapering off early 
Thursday. Clouds will be slow to erode in the NW flow for the 
first half of Thursday. Ridging wins out Thursday afternoon with
sun breaking out. 

Ridge overhead Thursday night with the axis sliding east 
throughout the night will allow for light warming southerly flow
to develop before daybreak. This is reflected in the increasing
925mb temps overnight. Quiet but warmer weather ensues Friday 
and Friday night. 

Temperatures throughout the period will be dependent on cloud 
cover. Wednesday and Thursday expect max temperatures ranging 
from the low 40s in the high terrain to mid 50s in portions of 
the broad valleys. Clouds Wednesday night keep temperatures 
seasonably mild in the 30s to low 40s. High pressure over the 
region Thursday night will lead to more seasonable temperatures 
under mostly clear skies with mins ranging from the upper 20s in
sheltered valleys of the Northeast Kingdom to near 40 in the St
Lawrence Vally with the warming southerly flow affecting this 
area longest. Friday continues to feel the warm air advection 
from persistent southerly flow with maxes in the 50s to low 60s.
Min temperatures Friday night will be similar to Wednesday 
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 405 AM EST Tuesday...Saturday will remain mostly dry area
of approaching mid level trough. 925mb temperatures peak early 
Saturday around 12C-14C. By late Saturday, looks like North 
Country will be sandwiched by 2 lows: one approaching from the 
Great Lakes region and a coastal low. Models continue to differ 
on details. 500mb trough will become negatively tilted according
to GFS and ECMWF but how far east the coastal low and therefore
how much energy and moisture is phased into the main 500mb 
trough still questionable. With regard to 00Z runs, GFS quicker 
to absorb coastal low by Sunday evening. ECMWF and CMC have more
of a double barrel surface low through sometime Monday.

Boiling this down, Saturday night into Sunday, expect 
precipitation to affect the North Country as rain with above 
freezing temperatures at 925mb to the surface through Sunday. 
Colder air will filter in Sunday night into Monday with 
continued precipitation as the negatively tilted 500mb trough 
continues to affect the region. Snow is expected to start in the
higher terrain around sunset, lowering to about 1000ft by 
midnight under strong cold air advection as the mid level trough
axis shifts northeast, putting the North Country in NW flow. 
According to GFS PWATs, bulk of moisture will be exiting Monday-
Monday Night. Therefore, expect drier valleys with upslope snow
in NW flow affecting the higher terrain and western slopes. 
This far out, uncertainty is high in exact details. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Vfr conditions prevail overnight into 
Tuesday morning...with increasing mid/upper level clouds. Weak 
surface high pres will result in mainly light and variable 
terrain driven winds. On Tuesday...rain arrives around 18z for 
Rutland with mainly vfr conditions...but expecting a period of 
moderate rain with potential mvfr cigs/vis to impact btv/rut/mpv
toward 00z Weds. Cigs will slowly lower as moisture 
increases...with mvfr likely at mpv by 21z and potential ifr by 
00z associated with southeast upslope flow. Rain arrives at btv 
around 21z...with only vcsh at mss/slk. Mvfr cigs with periods
of ifr are likely on Tuesday evening with occasional rain
showers.  

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday...A wide range of flight
categories expected overnight with vfr western taf sites to
mvfr/ifr cigs at rut/btv/mpv. Soundings show deeply blocked
flow with abundant low level moisture...so anticipating 
intervals of ifr cigs. Lingering moisture and terrain focus 
rain showers prevail on Weds into Thursday with intervals of 
mvfr cigs likely at slk/mpv/btv/rut...before clearing and vfr 
arrives for Friday into Saturday...associated with building 
ridge of high pres.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
June 2008, Week 4
June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
May 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
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April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 2
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February 2008, Week 5
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January 2008, Week 3
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December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
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September 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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