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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 22 Nov 2016 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (244 lines)

Expires:201611222100;;755073
FPUS51 KBTV 221141
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016


VTZ006-222100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
639 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

$$


Expires:201611221200;;754666
ASUS41 KBTV 221130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  31  22  69 NW15G26   29.78R WCI  20
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  26  21  81 W7        29.74R WCI  18
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  28  21  75 N5        29.76R WCI  23
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  22  75 MISG      29.69R
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  26  21  80 W16G22    29.69R WCI  14
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      29.79R
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    28  19  69 W7        29.77R WCI  21
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    29  16  58 VRB3      29.74R
HIGHGATE*      FLURRIES  28  23  83 W8G16     29.79R WCI  20
NEWPORT*       FLURRIES  26  20  80 W13G29    29.70R WCI  15
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    28  18  66 W8        29.82R WCI  20
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A W10         N/A  WCI  15
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     14 N/A N/A CALM        N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  27  80 W21         N/A  WCI  20
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  27  80 NW24        N/A  WCI  19
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  25  69 NW8         N/A  WCI  27

$$


Expires:No;;748527
FXUS61 KBTV 220906
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EST Tue Nov 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly depart eastward across the Canadian
Maritimes today and tonight. The North Country will still feel
some fringe effects from this system today, with moderately
strong and gusty northwesterly winds, and occasional flurries
and mountain snow showers. High pressure then brings drier
conditions for a brief time Tuesday night and Wednesday. A weak
upper level disturbance will bring the potential for a mix of
rain and snow showers for Thanksgiving Day. A more significant
low pressure system may affect the region Friday night into
Saturday with a mix of rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EST Tuesday...Early morning IR imagery reveals
mid-level closed low centered across nrn ME, with broad cyclonic
circulation still encompassing the North Country and much of the
nern CONUS and sern Canada. With the system only slowly filling
and drifting ewd today, not expecting any significant changes in
overall weather conditions. A moist NW flow, with 850mb wind
speeds of 35-40kts, will generally maintain low-level stratus
layer and orographic ascent into the nrn Adirondacks and
nrn/central Green mtns. Areas of 20-30dbz radar reflectivity
continue to translate swd from srn Quebec across the nrn Green
Mtns, and will be looking for continued periods of snow shower
activity across the Mtns, with passing flurries in the valleys.
Could see an additional 1-2" across the higher summits, and
locally around 3" for Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak. Will also see
moderately strong surface winds, of 10-15 mph, with mixing to
900mb or so yielding gusts to 25-30 mph, especially ern slopes
of the Adirondacks and Green mtns. High temps today generally
low-mid 30s, with small diurnal range with prevailing overcast.

For tonight, surface high pressure ridge begins to build in
across the ern Great Lakes and wrn/central NY. NAM model
soundings maintain inversion layer 900-850mb, which may continue
 to trap in thin layer of stratus, but potential for mtn snow
showers will continue to decrease, with just a few remaining
flurries after 06Z Wednesday. Overnight lows mainly in the mid
20s, except upr teens to lower 20s for the nrn Adirondacks and
far nern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 404 AM EST Tuesday...High pressure builds into the region with
a short period of fair weather over the area before the next
system moves in late Wednesday night. Northwestern flow over
area will keeps temps cool again in the upper 20's and lower to
mid 30's. Along with that residual low level moisture will
remain trapped in the northern half of the CWA leading to cloudy
 conditions while the southern VT counties should get some
afternoon breaks of sunshine. 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF remain in
agreement that precipitation from the next system will hold off
until Thanksgiving day, leading to a quiet start to the
Thanksgiving Day weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Tuesday...Early Thanksgiving morning,
increasing clouds will begin to move into the region and by
mid-morning light snow showers are expected over the
Adirondacks and southern Vermont as next system moves in. As
the day progresses warmer air moves in with the system and snow
showers should change over rain in the lower valleys. Travel
during the day could be more challenging in the higher
elevations.

This system weakens quickly as it passes through the region
Thanksgiving night leading to some spotty snow shower activity
mainly in the higher elevations. Friday brings the next low pressure
system from the Great Lakes region. Models differ at how strong this
system will be, with the GFS showing a coastal low just off the
Massachusetts shoreline adding to the moisture and bringing
with it about .75"-1.00" more QPF in the higher elevations
throughout the duration of the event. While the ECMWF keeps it
further out to sea and showing no significant impacts from it
over our region. Precipitation type is still hard to pin down in
the system as it looks like low level warm air could move in
rather quickly and turn widespread snow showers in to rain by
midday Saturday for all but the highest elevations. There is
also disagreement in how quickly the system departs as the GFS
deepens the low rapidly and keeps it over Maine through Mon
while the ECMWF progresses it into the Canadian Maritimes. This
system will be very interesting to watch as the week progresses.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Vermont and northern New York will
remain under cyclonic flow from surface low pressure area over
southern Quebec. Expecting a mix of VFR/MVFR and IFR conditions
across the region through the period in snow showers and low
ceilings, with the lower visibilities and ceilings mainly over
the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green mountains.
Tight surface pressure gradient across the region will result in
 west-northwest surface wind gusts of 20 knots or greater
through the period.

06Z Wed - 06Z Thu: Trending mainly VFR with weak high pressure
building across the North Country.

06Z Thu onward: Trending mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR in scattered
rain/snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Maintained Lake Wind Advisory for today. Strong gradient flow
west of slowly departing low across northern Maine resulting in
surface winds of 15-25kt vicinity of Colchester Reef. Steep
lapse rates continue in place across the lake, with lake water
temps still in the upper 40s to near 50. This will continue to
enhance low-level mixing across the open lake waters promoting
moderately strong NW winds. Wave heights will be 2-4 feet,
highest toward the VT side of the broad portion of the lake.
Should see winds fall back to 10-20kts tonight, and 5-10kts by
Wednesday afternoon with waves subsiding.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...WGH/Hanson
MARINE...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 5
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