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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Thu, 24 Nov 2016 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (247 lines)

Expires:201611242100;;855063
FPUS51 KBTV 241116
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
614 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016


VTZ006-242100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
614 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

.TODAY...LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 50. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201611241200;;855504
ASUS41 KBTV 241130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    31  24  75 SE5       30.31R WCI  26
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    27  23  85 SE3       30.32S
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    28  24  85 CALM      30.32S
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  24  78 MISG      30.31R
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    27  24  87 CALM      30.31S
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    30  30 100 CALM      30.31R
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  25  81 S7        30.31R WCI  23
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    30  24  78 CALM      30.35R
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      27  24  89 E3        30.31S
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    28  24  86 SE6       30.31R WCI  21
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    27  22  81 CALM      30.27F
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A SE1         N/A
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A SE6         N/A  WCI  16

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  28  86 E12         N/A  WCI  23
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     34  30  86 SE12        N/A  WCI  25
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  28  86 SE9         N/A  WCI  24

$$


Expires:No;;847839
FXUS61 KBTV 240830
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and leading
warm front will push east, northeastward today. This system
will bring periods of light snow to the North Country,
especially mid to late this morning, with snow amounts
generally around one inch. Cloudy skies will persist tonight
and Friday as a weak surface trough remains over the region.
This will bring intermittent mixed wintry precipitation tonight,
followed by some light rain for Friday. Generally unsettled
weather will continue into the weekend, with plenty of clouds
along with rain and snow showers. No significant accumulation of
snow is expected however.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 246 AM EST Thursday...Early morning IR imagery reveals
mid-level trough extending from sern MI to nwrn PA, with warm
frontal cloud band across Lake Ontario and the srn tier of NY.
Getting some speed convergence and deformation in the 850-700mb
layer north of surface warm front across OH/PA, and this will
result in some periods of light snow as forcing lifts north and
eastward this morning. Models generally in line showing best
frontal forcing and precipitation chances in our area mid-late
morning, when much of the region will pick up an inch or so of
light snow. Continued with PoPs 60-70%, with light intensity
wording associated with the snowfall, as QPF amts <0.10".
With it being Thanksgiving and increased travel, included
mention of some slick spots in the hazardous weather outlook,
but widespread travel problems are not expected. High temps
today generally just a few degrees warmer than current readings,
ranging from the upr 20s to mid 30s...highest in the srn
Champlain Valley.

Forcing becomes more amorphous this afternoon and tonight. It
appears sfc low weakens as it tracks ewd across the North
Country overnight tonight. Low level wind fields are relatively
light, but abundant low-mid-level moisture and weak UVV will
result in intermittent periods of some very light precipitation
(<0.10") per NWP model consensus. Will be some slow warming in
the PBL and aloft with light S-SE winds. This will bring a
wintry mix, with some very light rain in the Champlain Valley,
and snow perhaps mixing with sleet elsewhere. NAM and GFS model
soundings suggest we lose cloud ice toward daybreak as cloud
top temps warm above -10C or so. Thus, after midnight, could
also see some freezing drizzle as the predominant p-type,
especially east of the Greens where subfreezing temps are likely
to hold in place. Accordingly, the hazardous weather outlook
also makes mention of some continued slick spots for the
overnight period. Elsewhere, temps slowly rising into the mid
30s toward daybreak Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EST Thursday...12z Friday begins with weak 500 mb
shortwave ridging over the forecast area with slow moving and slowly
deepening 500 mb trough moving east through the great lakes.
Southerly flow ahead of the low up through 850 mb bringing a nose of
warmer above freezing air in a layer from about 950 mb to 850 mb.
This results in a mixed bag of precip early on when surface temps
are coolest. Expect light precip in the form of drizzle/freezing
drizzle transitioning to liquid during the day when surface
temperatures warm above freezing. Snow growth zone during the day
Friday is out of the saturated layer and upward vertical motion so
do not look for snow or rain of any note. Hi POP low QPF during this
time period ahead of the trough and cloudy, cool, damp weather.
Highs in the upper 30s/low 40s, and lows in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 326 AM EST Thursday...For Saturday the upper trough
moves across the region, with low level flow turning westerly in
response to a weak frontal passage and cyclogenesis along the New
England coast. Weak cold air advection under the lowering heights
and 850mb temperatures falling from -1C to about -8C by Sunday
morning. Precip chances continue Saturday into Saturday night.
Precip type changing to snow in the cooler higher elevations and
remaining mostly rain in the Champlain and Connecticut river valleys
Saturday. Saturday night temperatures cool enough throughout the
region for all snow. However by Saturday night in northwesterly low
level flow expect to see snow become more concentrated in favored
upslope areas in the northern Adirondacks and northern Vermont.
Continued light QPF with little moisture to work with.

Sunday showers will taper off as the relatively stacked low meanders
towards Nova Scotia and ridging builds across the northeast US
through early next week. ECMWF and GFS generally in agreement with
rising heights and 850 mb temperatures through mid week. Dry
forecast Monday/Monday night with ridge overhead and subsidence.
1000-500mb mean RH dropping below 50%, and we may even get to see a
little sunshine on Monday. Precip chances re-enter the forecast
Tuesday with a surge of warm air and moisture ahead of the next low.
Models differ in timing and intensity of the low, with GFS more
progressive and a sharper trough axis at the surface and aloft. GFS
has quite a strong low level jet ahead of the approaching low for
Wednesday...over 50 knots at 850 mb. ECMWF has a flatter trough with
broad southwesterly flow on the order of 20 knots. Both models
indicate 850 mb temps warm well above freezing, with low level
warm air advection keeping temperatures Tuesday night above
freezing and 850 mb temps supporting maxes into the 50s
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Surface observations showing most of the
region is covered by low clouds at this time. Model guidance
still showing a low level temperature inversion across the
region overnight, along with light surface winds, which suggests
that low cloud cover will be difficult to erode overnight.
Thus, expecting mainly MVFR ceilings with local pockets of IFR
ceilings. Also some areas of VFR ceilings. Expecting light snow
to develop across the region between 11z-14z Thursday, as a
warm front approaches the region, with conditions becoming IFR
in light snow.

06Z Thu to 12z Mon: Primarily MVFR with periods of light snow
and rain showers.

12z Mon onward: trending VFR, though MVFR ceilings across the
higher terrain.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...WGH/Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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