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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 25 Nov 2016 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (234 lines)

Expires:201611252100;;905625
FPUS51 KBTV 251118
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
616 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2016


VTZ006-252100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
616 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN. AREAS OF
FOG. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW. NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE
OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201611251200;;906017
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    36  35  96 S5        30.21F
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    32  32 100 CALM      30.25R
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    33  31  92 CALM      30.24R FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     33  32  96 MISG      30.23S
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  32  32  99 SE3       30.24R
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY   N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.22S FOG
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    36  33  89 SE8       30.22S WCI  30
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  31  96 CALM      30.27R FOG
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    33  33  96 CALM      30.22S
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    32  32  99 S5        30.22R WCI  27
BENNINGTON     FOG       35  33  92 CALM      30.21S VSB 3/4
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A SW5         N/A  WCI  23

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  36  93 SE12        N/A  WCI  30
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  37  93 S14         N/A  WCI  31
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  36  93 S9          N/A  WCI  31

$$


Expires:No;;906711
FXUS61 KBTV 251143
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
643 AM EST Fri Nov 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect plenty of clouds across the North Country today and
continuing right through the weekend. Temperatures will be right
around seasonal normals during this period. Any precipitation today
will be in the form of light rain or light snow with the best
chances for light precipitation occurring Saturday and Saturday
night. Lower elevations will see the precipitation as light rain
with light snow in the mountains. Some minor accumulations are
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 643 AM EST Friday...Going forecast in real good shape and
no changes needed at this time. Satellite imagery from early
this morning shows shortwave trough has moved east of the region
and west to southwest flow aloft is beginning to develop over
the area. There are quite a bit of clouds within this flow and
these will persist over the area today. The clouds will keep
temperatures in check with high temperatures generally in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Not much in the way of any forcing today
so any precipitation that does fall will be light and have used
that designation in the forecast. Only real concern will be this
morning as plenty of low level moisture exists and with some
locations right around the freezing mark...some black ice will
be possible across the area. Will therefore update the special
weather statement to highlight this fact...especially for the
morning hours. Will also mention areas of fog.

For tonight and Saturday...still expect plenty of clouds and there
will be another upper level trough approaching the region late
tonight and especially on Saturday. Like the idea in the grids
already of increasing precipitation chances on Saturday...especially
in the mountains. While precipitation chances will be increasing...
the actual precipitation amounts will be light with amounts
generally remaining under a tenth of an inch. Temperatures below
925 millibars should be warm enough for the precipitation to be
in the form of light rain with light snow above that. Thus
getting a couple of inches of new snow in the mountains looks
good through Saturday afternoon with additional light
accumulations going into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 357 AM EST Friday...Short term picks up with highly
amplified mid-tropospheric flow with trough over the eastern US
and ridge over the central CONUS. The 500 mb low slowly
meanders eastward through the short term period, closing off and
becoming vertically stacked over the surface low as it exits
the Canadian maritime by 00z Tuesday. Meanwhile the central US
ridge moves eastward to Hudson Bay/Great Lakes/Florida axis by
Monday in response to a deepening western US trough.

With the upper trough over the region and high RH & cyclonic flow at
the low levels expect plenty of cloud cover and little diurnal range
in below normal temperatures. Backed off on POPs during this time
period despite the proximity of the upper low. Best moisture is
limited to the low levels below about 800 mb and outside the snow
growth zone. Vertical ascent is also limited to the lower levels.
Primary driver for precip will be terrain induced upslope flow, and
highest chance pops over those areas. Any precip would be light,
just a few hundredths and rain/snow depending on elevation. By the
end of the day Monday ridging begins to nudge in from the west
reducing pops below slight chance threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 357 AM EST Friday...Surface and 500 mb ridge moves east
of the area by Tuesday, with southerly return flow and warm air
advection. Northern stream 500 mb closed low across the northern
plains phases with southern stream trough, and the whole thing
slowly moves eastward to push the ridge on out. Precip to spread
across the forecast area from southwest to northeast along a
warm frontal boundary ahead of the low beginning Tuesday. A
second wave of precip to move along the frontal boundary late
Wednesday into Thursday.

Precip type will begin as rain at low levels and rain/snow at higher
elevations and in Northeast Kingdom Tuesday, then warm air advection
takes over Wednesday and all areas warm above freezing. Increased
min temps Tuesday night and max temps Wednesday over Superblend
guidance in response to WAA.  850 mb temps warm to +4 to +6 in the
ECMWF and GFS Wednesday, but max temp potential tempered by clouds
and rainfall. Ended up with highs Wednesday solidly in the 50s in
the Champlain and St. Lawrence valleys, and 40s in the higher
elevations and Connecticut River valley that is usually more blocked
to warming low level flow from the south-southwest.

Surface cold front to pass Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with
cooling temperatures in cold air advection and lowering heights
under the upper low. Potential for strong gusty winds especially
over higher from the south ahead of the low Wednesday, then turning
west to northwest behind the cold front Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Extensive area of clouds over the area
this morning with quite a bit of cloudiness upstream as well.
With developing west to southwest flow pattern...these clouds
will remain over the area through the period. Ceilings will
generally be in the IFR and LIFR categories with just some brief
periods of MVFR ceilings. Visibilities will be in the MVFR/VFR
categories overall due to light precipitation and fog...but
there will be noticeable periods of IFR visibilities...
especially this morning. Winds will generally be under 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...

12Z Saturday through 12z Monday: Primarily MVFR/IFR with
periods of light snow and rain showers.

12z Monday through 12Z Tuesday: Trending VFR, though MVFR
ceilings may hold across the higher terrain.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Evenson

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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January 2008, Week 3
January 2008, Week 2
January 2008, Week 1
December 2007, Week 5
December 2007, Week 4
December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
December 2007, Week 1
November 2007, Week 5
November 2007, Week 4
November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
August 2007, Week 2
August 2007, Week 1
July 2007, Week 5
July 2007, Week 4
July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
May 2007, Week 4
May 2007, Week 3
May 2007, Week 2
May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
April 2007, Week 4
April 2007, Week 3
April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
February 2007, Week 3
February 2007, Week 2
February 2007, Week 1
January 2007, Week 5
January 2007, Week 4
January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
December 2006, Week 5
December 2006, Week 4
December 2006, Week 3
December 2006, Week 2
December 2006, Week 1
November 2006, Week 5
November 2006, Week 4
November 2006, Week 3
November 2006, Week 2
November 2006, Week 1
October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
October 2006, Week 3
October 2006, Week 2
October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
September 2006, Week 3
September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
August 2006, Week 5
August 2006, Week 4
August 2006, Week 3
August 2006, Week 2
August 2006, Week 1
July 2006, Week 5
July 2006, Week 4
July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
July 2006, Week 1
June 2006, Week 5
June 2006, Week 4
June 2006, Week 3
June 2006, Week 2
June 2006, Week 1
May 2006, Week 5
May 2006, Week 4
May 2006, Week 3
May 2006, Week 2
May 2006, Week 1
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April 2006, Week 4
April 2006, Week 3
April 2006, Week 2
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February 2006, Week 2
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January 2006, Week 3
January 2006, Week 2
January 2006, Week 1
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December 2005, Week 3
December 2005, Week 2
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November 2005, Week 3
November 2005, Week 2
November 2005, Week 1
October 2005, Week 5
October 2005, Week 4
October 2005, Week 3
October 2005, Week 2
October 2005, Week 1
September 2005, Week 5
September 2005, Week 4
September 2005, Week 3
September 2005, Week 2
September 2005, Week 1
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August 2005, Week 4
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August 2005, Week 1
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July 2005, Week 3
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July 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 4
June 2005, Week 3
June 2005, Week 2
June 2005, Week 1
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May 2005, Week 3
May 2005, Week 2
May 2005, Week 1
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
February 2005, Week 4
February 2005, Week 3
February 2005, Week 2
February 2005, Week 1
January 2005, Week 5
January 2005, Week 4
January 2005, Week 3
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January 2005, Week 1
December 2004, Week 5
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November 2004, Week 3
November 2004, Week 2
November 2004, Week 1
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October 2004, Week 4
October 2004, Week 3
October 2004, Week 2
October 2004, Week 1
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September 2004, Week 4
September 2004, Week 3
September 2004, Week 2
September 2004, Week 1
August 2004, Week 5
August 2004, Week 4
August 2004, Week 3
August 2004, Week 2
August 2004, Week 1
July 2004, Week 5
July 2004, Week 4
July 2004, Week 3
July 2004, Week 2
July 2004, Week 1
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June 2004, Week 4
June 2004, Week 3
June 2004, Week 2
June 2004, Week 1
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May 2004, Week 3
May 2004, Week 2
May 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
April 2004, Week 2
April 2004, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 3
March 2004, Week 2
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January 2004, Week 1
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December 2003, Week 2
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November 2003, Week 3
November 2003, Week 2
November 2003, Week 1
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October 2003, Week 3
October 2003, Week 2
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October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
August 2002, Week 2
August 2002, Week 1
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July 2002, Week 2
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June 2002, Week 5
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June 2002, Week 2
June 2002, Week 1
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May 2002, Week 1
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April 2002, Week 3
April 2002, Week 2
April 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
February 2002, Week 4
February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
January 2002, Week 5
January 2002, Week 4
January 2002, Week 3
January 2002, Week 2
January 2002, Week 1
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December 2001, Week 4
December 2001, Week 3
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May 2001, Week 1
April 2001, Week 5
April 2001, Week 4
April 2001, Week 3
April 2001, Week 2
April 2001, Week 1
March 2001, Week 5
March 2001, Week 4
March 2001, Week 3
March 2001, Week 2
March 2001, Week 1
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December 1999, Week 5
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December 1998, Week 5
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