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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 26 Nov 2016 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (226 lines)

Expires:201611262100;;955810
FPUS51 KBTV 261115
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
613 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016


VTZ006-262100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
613 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

.TODAY...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201611261200;;956348
ASUS41 KBTV 261130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    37  36  96 E3        30.10S
MONTPELIER     FOG       33  33 100 CALM      30.11S VSB 1/2
MORRISVILLE    FOG       33  32  96 CALM      30.10S VSB 1/2
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  34  96 MISG      30.09S
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       33  32  99 CALM      30.09S VSB 1/4
MIDDLEBURY*    FOG      N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.09S VSB 3/4
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    36  34  92 E8        30.09S WCI  30
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       33  31  92 CALM      30.10F VSB 3/4
HIGHGATE*      FOG       36  36 100 CALM      30.09F VSB 1/4
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    33  33  99 CALM      30.09S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    35  34  96 S5        30.10R FOG     WCI  31
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     41  39  93 E6          N/A
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  41  93 S9          N/A
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  39  93 SE7         N/A

$$


Expires:No;;950179
FXUS61 KBTV 260902
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
402 AM EST Sat Nov 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect another day of cloudy conditions across the North
Country today with high temperatures in the mid 30s to lower
40s. Light rain is expected later this morning and afternoon at
the lower elevations with light snow in the mountains. The
precipitation will taper off tonight and be more confined to the
mountains through Sunday. Highs will only be in the 30s on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Saturday...Widespread clouds remain over the
area early this morning along with areas of fog. Based on
satellite imagery the clouds will not be going away anytime soon
with clouds all the way back into the Upper Midwest. This will
keep highs in check with readings expected in the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Well defined shortwave trough is moving east from the
Upper Midwest and enhancing precipitation across western New
York. This will all move east-northeast and thus feel
precipitation won't just be confined to the mountains today but
the lower elevations as well. Still looking at snow levels
getting down today to the 1000-1500 foot range with light rain
at the lower elevations and light snow in the mountains. Any
snow accumulations today will be in the dusting to two inch
range. Only other item of note today is fairly widespread fog
this morning and this will persist through mid-morning.

Tonight and Sunday...shortwave trough moves east of the area
tonight and areal coverage of the precipitation will decrease
and be confined to the mountains as northwest flow aloft
develops on the backside of the departing shortwave. Cooler air
will also be moving in with highs only in the 30s. The potential
for additional light snow accumulations in the mountains will
exist on Sunday...especially over north central and northeast
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 AM EST Saturday...Generally quiet weather during the
short term period. Lingering snow showers in the northern
mountains early Sunday night as upper low departs and northwest
flow continues, however low level drying will bring those to an
end pretty quickly. Monday and Monday night surface to 500 mb
ridge moves west to east bringing fair weather. Most guidance
wanted to reduce sky cover quite a bit on Monday, but given time
of year I wasn't quite as optimistic. Believe we'll get a peek
at the sun Monday afternoon but not as much clearing as the
guidance gave me.

Temps seasonable with maxes a degree or two below normal in the
30s and near normal mins in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 402 AM EST Saturday...Weather becomes active during the
long term timeframe. Ridge shifts east and southerly return flow
develops Tuesday. Slow moving closed low system slowly moves
east during the period, with warm frontal precipitation moving
west to east Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Precip begins as
snow Tuesday morning mainly in northern New York, becoming more
widespread and changing to rain Tuesday afternoon as temperatures
warm. Snow lingers in Connecticut River valley Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night where southerly flow has a more difficult
time bringing warmer air. Expect a lull in precip late Wednesday
to Wednesday night, and GFS has a dry slot behind the warm
front but ECMWF brings in a second wave more quickly. Pops
decrease back to chance category during this period.

A second wave shortwave trough rotates through the base of the
longwave trough to our west on Thursday, with surface cyclogenesis
and renewed chances for rain. Some model discrepancies but overall
idea of a surface low moving out of the mid atlantic and up the east
coast with a westerly wind shift Thursday morning and cold air
advection beginning Thursday. Rain changing to rain/snow mix as the
upper trough finally moves over the region and cooler air moves in.

Temperatures...not looking quite as warm Wednesday as what models
indicated 24 hours ago. Southerly flow doesn't bring warm air as far
north, and have lowered Wednesday max temps a degree or two.
Nevertheless looking for highs Wednesday well into the 40s to near
50 in the warmer valley locations as 850 mb temps go above zero. For
Thursday with frontal passage, if forecast holds would expect steady
to falling temperatures during the day with a return to more normal
temps for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Low cloud cover will persist over Vermont
and northern New York through the period, as an upper trough
moves east from the Great lakes. Expecting scattered light rain
or snow showers through the period, along with some drizzle.
Mainly MVFR to IFR/VLIFR expected in low ceilings and mist and
fog through the period. Surface winds will be less than 10 knots
through the period.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...

06Z Sunday through 12z Monday: Primarily MVFR/IFR with periods
of light snow and rain showers.

12z Monday through 12Z Tuesday: Trending VFR, though MVFR
ceilings may hold across the higher terrain.

12Z Tuesday onward: MVFR with rain showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...WGH/KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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