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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sun, 27 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (231 lines)

Expires:201611272100;;006713
FPUS51 KBTV 271128
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016


VTZ006-272100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
626 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
.TUESDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

$$


Expires:201611271200;;006766
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    34  29  82 CALM      30.07S
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    31  28  89 CALM      30.06S
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    31  24  75 CALM      30.06S
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  31  96 MISG      30.02S
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    31  25  80 W8        30.02S WCI  23
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    32  31  96 CALM      30.04S
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    31  29  92 CALM      30.04R FOG
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY    27  27  99 CALM      30.07S
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    30  26  86 NW3       30.03S
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    34  31  88 SW3       30.04S
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A W3          N/A
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A CALM        N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  30  80 NW6         N/A  WCI  31
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  28  70 N12         N/A  WCI  30
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  27  65 N12         N/A  WCI  30

$$


Expires:No;;006960
FXUS61 KBTV 271133
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EST Sun Nov 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
One more day of cloudy weather today with some snow showers in
the mountains. A ridge of high pressure builds in on Monday and
expecting dry weather and a return of sunshine. This will be
short lived however as an upper level trough of low pressure
develops to our west on Tuesday and Wednesday. This system will
spread clouds and precipitation back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 633 AM EST Sunday...Going forecast in good shape and very
little change needed at this time. Just a few small breaks in
the clouds...but secondary surge of clouds quickly moving in
from Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise...north to northwest flow aloft
exists over the area this morning on the backside of the upper
trough that brought precipitation to the area yesterday. This
flow pattern will persist today and help to keep quite a bit of
cloud cover over the area with highs generally in the 30s. The
northwest flow pattern also supports the idea of favorable
upslope conditions for light snow in the mountains... especially
the mountains of north central and northeast Vermont where an
inch or two of snow is likely by late in the day.

For tonight and Monday...upslope conditions continue through the
first half of tonight...but upper ridge begins to build into the
region late tonight and Monday. This will bringing drier weather
to the region with no precipitation expected and increasing
amounts of sunshine on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will
generally be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EST Sunday...Short term period transitions back to
active weather with 500mb closed low over north central US and
broad southern stream trough over most of the US. Ridging at
surface and aloft centered over the northeast will move east of
the region by Tuesday evening. Southerly flow developing on the
back side of the ridge will begin warming. Shortwave trough will
move out of mean US trough and lift northeast Monday night,
tracking along the St. Lawrence Valley on Tuesday. At the
surface low pressure will track through the Great Lakes with a
trailing warm front being the focus for precipitation.

Will be a cold start to the day Tuesday morning with precipitation
beginning as snow in northern New York, then mixing with and
changing to rain during the day Tuesday as the system moves east and
temperatures warm above freezing. Mix to linger in the Connecticut
River valley where warmer air return is blocked by the Green
Mountains to the west. Strongest southerly winds now appear to
coincide with the Tuesday warm front, where earlier model runs
had it closer to the passage of the upper low Wednesday/Thursday.
Bumped up surface winds on Tuesday by blending in some raw model
output to bring speeds into the teens.

Period of drying late Tuesday/Tuesday night in dry slot behind the
warm front and brought pops back down briefly.

Lows in the 20s Monday night, then warming in southerly flow with
highs in the upper 30s-mid 40s Tuesday and little drop in overnight
lows Tuesday night in continued warm southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Sunday...Active pattern continues through the
extended period with closed 500 mb low slowly chugging through
the Great Lakes & northeast reaching the eastern Canadian
provinces Friday, then gets kicked on out by one more vort max
rotating around the low Friday into Saturday.

Precipitation begins again late Wednesday into Thursday as another
wave moves through the region in advance of the approaching upper
low. Temperatures generally warm enough to support rain this time in
continued warm southwesterly flow. After this wave moves through
surface cold front passes Thursday as precip winds down and some
rain changing back to snow showers, particularly at higher
elevations. Westerly flow at surface and aloft, and lowering heights
as the upper low settles in over the northeast. Continued chances
for mainly terrain driven rain/snow showers in west to northwest low
level flow and saturated low levels.

Wednesday will be the warmest day and went a couple degrees above
Superblend by blending in some 925 mb based max temps as well.
Thursday will likely see near steady temperatures when cold air
advection balances daytime heating. Little if any sunshine to be
found in the extended period with plenty of low level moisture and
cyclonic flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12Z Monday...Overall looking at VFR/MVFR ceilings
through the period. There will be some mountain snow showers
this afternoon with snow showers in the vicinity of KSLK and
KMPV...but visibilities will generally be in the VFR category
through the period. Wind speeds will be 10 knots or less through
the period...generally from the west and northwest.

Outlook 12Z Monday through Thursday...

12z Monday through 12Z Tuesday: VFR under ridge of high
pressure.

12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with wintry mix
transitioning to rain on Tuesday. Strong gusty winds or LLWS
possible on Tuesday.

12Z Wednesday onward: MVFR conditions expected in rain showers,
becoming MVFR/IFR in snow showers Thursday night.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Hanson
LONG TERM...Hanson
AVIATION...Evenson/KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
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March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
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