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SKIVT-L  November 2016, Week 4

SKIVT-L November 2016, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 23 Nov 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (226 lines)

Expires:201611232100;;804554
FPUS51 KBTV 231126
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016


VTZ006-232100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
624 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201611231200;;804769
ASUS41 KBTV 231130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    30  21  69 NW8       30.23R WCI  22
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  22  88 W18       30.19S WCI  11
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    28  22  78 N7        30.19R WCI  21
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  23  75 MISG      30.14R
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    27  23  85 W10G17    30.13R WCI  17
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    28  22  80 CALM      30.23R
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  20  75 W7        30.20R WCI  19
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    29  18  63 NW8       30.19R WCI  21
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    28  23  80 W7        30.23R WCI  21
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    26  23  87 W12G21    30.15R WCI  16
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    26  18  71 NW7       30.21R WCI  18
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A CALM        N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  28  86 W17         N/A  WCI  21
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  25  74 NW13        N/A  WCI  22
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  21  64 W10         N/A  WCI  24

$$


Expires:No;;797247
FXUS61 KBTV 230832
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
332 AM EST Wed Nov 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure building eastward from the Great Lakes
will bring a brief period of dry weather today and tonight, and
a few breaks of sun for this afternoon. A weak upper level
disturbance and warm front moving northeastward from the Ohio
Valley will bring periods of light snow for Thanksgiving Day.
Some light accumulations are expected, generally ranging from a
dusting up to 2 inches. Additional periods of light rain and
snow showers are possible Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 251 AM EST Wednesday...North Country remains on far
southwestern fringe of cyclonic flow associated with deep closed
low north of Nova Scotia. Still seeing stratus layer and nwly
surface winds 10-20mph early this morning, with temperatures
generally in the mid 20s to around 30F at daybreak. Will see
winds diminish later this morning as surface ridge over Ontario
builds eastward and crests over the North Country around 00Z
this evening. Will still be dealing with inversion layer 2-5kft,
and prevailing trapped moisture/stratus deck, and some rime
icing across the higher summits. Subsidence with the ridge will
have some drying influence, but with low sun angle this time of
year and weakening wind fields thru the day, anticipate just
some partial clearing (best prospects for sun east of the
Adirondacks and into the CT river valley with some downslope
effects). High temperatures today similar to recent days,
generally 30-35F, except upper 20s in the northern Adirondacks
and far nern VT.

Any clearing will be short-lived as weak trough axis approaches
from the srn Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region late tonight. As
stratus dissipate, will see an increase in mid-upr level clouds
overnight with onset of weak warm advection regime in advance of
850mb warm front across PA and the srn tier of NY. Should
remain dry tonight, with just a slight chance of light snow
across St. Lawrence County toward daybreak. Overnight lows
generally low-mid 20s with light and variable winds.

Modest synoptic scale 850-700mb warm advection will drive light
snowfall event during Thanksgiving Day. Included likely PoPs
(60-70%), but overall QPF from the 0z NWP guidance suite not
particularly impressive (generally 0.05-0.12"). Overall, looking
for an overcast Thanksgiving Day with periods of light snow,
amounting to a dusting - 1"...perhaps as high as 2" in spots.
Light intensity of the snowfall should preclude any significant
travel impacts. High temps for Thanksgiving in the low to mid
30s. Winds becoming S-SE at 5-10mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Wednesday...Thanksgiving night will see low pressure
system weaken quickly as it passes the area leading to some
spotty snow shower activity mainly in the higher elevations and
NEK. Friday brings the next low pressure system from the Great
Lakes region. Models continue to differ greatly at how things
progress through the weekend from this point onwards. the 00Z
GFS shows little in the form of precipitation for Friday except
for some orographic enhanced snow showers throughout the day.
The 00Z ECMWF on the other hand shows greater mid-level moisture
and with that more widespread precipitation starting as early
snow showers and transitioning to rain in the lower elevations
by mid day before settling into an elevation driven rain-snow
mix into late Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Wednesday...The GFS at this point looks to
keep Saturday perception in the higher elevations before
swinging in a swath of moisture from an inverted trough
associated with a coastal low just east of Massachusetts on
Sunday. QPF amounts look to be at least .50" over NEK and the
spine of the Greens throughout the day. While again the ECMWF
differs greatly by progressing the coastal low quickly into the
Canadian Maritimes and any inverted trough over New England
never materializes and therefore only sees very scattered snow
shower activity mainly over the northern most counties in VT and
NY for midday Sunday. Models come back into agreement with a
high pressure ridge moving into the area on Monday afternoon
bringing a short period of fair weather before a warm front
ahead of a mature in the midwest moves in late on Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Satellite loop showing plenty of low
cloud cover across the region at this time. Expecting this cloud
cover will linger overnight into Wednesday across the region, as
model guidance showing a low level temperature inversion which
keep this low level cloud cover trapped across the region.
Expecting mainly MVFR ceilings across the region into Wednesday,
with some local pockets of VFR ceilings. A ridge of high
pressure will build slowly east from the Great Lakes overnight
into Wednesday. This will result in diminishing surface winds
overnight into Wednesday, as surface pressure gradient weakens
across the region, but this will be a "dirty high", as low
clouds will be trapped below the temperature inversion.

00Z Thu - 12Z Thu: Trending mainly VFR with weak high pressure
building across the North Country.

12Z Thu onward: Primarily MVFR as a series of storm systems move
across the region. Precipitation should feature a mix of
snow/rain, so where it does snow, expect IFR conditions.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...WGH/Nash

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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December 2007, Week 1
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
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March 2007, Week 5
March 2007, Week 4
March 2007, Week 3
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