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SKIVT-L  December 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Sat, 10 Dec 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201612102100;;665387
FPUS51 KBTV 101131
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016


VTZ006-102100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
629 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 18.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 

$$


Expires:201612101200;;665328
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    21   8  57 NW15      30.29R WCI   8          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    15   7  70 NW8G17    30.23R WCI   4          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    17   3  54 N5        30.25R WCI  10          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     17   4  56 MISG      30.20R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    13   5  70 NW8       30.20R WCI   2          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    20   7  57 NW7       30.27S WCI  11          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    16   7  67 W7        30.24S WCI   6          
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    17   5  59 W6        30.25R WCI   9          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    18   5  57 N7        30.30R WCI   9          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      12   4  71 NW8       30.23R WCI   0          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     14   5  67 CALM      30.26R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     12 N/A N/A NW13        N/A  WCI  -3          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A NW38        N/A  WCI -26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     23  12  63 NW9         N/A  WCI  13          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  12  63 NW21        N/A  WCI   8          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     23  10  58 NW8         N/A  WCI  14          

$$


Expires:No;;665641
FXUS61 KBTV 101137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold and blustery day is expected with scattered snow showers. 
Highs will only reach the teens mountains and 20s in the valleys 
today. Our next system arrives on Sunday Night into Monday with a 
widespread accumulating snowfall expected. Total snow accumulations 
will range from 3 to 7 inches by Monday afternoon. A slippery Monday 
morning commute is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 629 AM EST Saturday...Have increased pops slightly over
the dacks...as slk is reporting 6sm in light snow.
Otherwise...expecting a chilly day across the region with a few
light scattered snow showers possible. Only expecting the temps
to climb 2 to 4 degrees today...as region is under moderate low
level cold air advection. Highs mainly single digits
summits...teens midslope...and lower 20s warmer valleys. 

The coldest airmass of the season will be parked over our 
region today into Sunday...as northwest flow aloft continues. 
Forecast challenge today will be potential areal coverage of 
snow showers...as several weak features are showing up in water 
vapor and we have cold air moving over relative warm lake 
champlain water. Have bumped pops to chance across the Champlain
Valley and western Slopes today...as water vapor shows weak 
ribbon of mid level moisture dropping southeast in the northwest
flow aloft...along with weak 5h vort just north of the Great 
Lakes. This energy/moisture...will combined with low level cold 
air advection to produce scattered mainly light snow showers 
across the champlain valley and western slopes. Would not be 
surprised a few locations get a dusting to maybe an inch or two 
given the synoptic and mesoscale setup. By later this afternoon 
winds shift to more of a westerly direction and this will limit 
fetch across Lake Champlain...resulting in decreasing pops 
chances toward sunset. Progged 850mb temps drop between -16c and
-18c today with 925mb temps between -13c and -15c...resulting 
in below normal readings. Thinking highs mainly in the teens 
mountains to mid 20s warmer valleys. 

For tonight...winds become light and variable as 1032mb high pres 
builds overhead. Big question will be if skies can clear with drying 
aloft and how temps are impacted. Soundings continue to show some 
moisture between 925mb and 800mb overnight...which supports clouds 
and slightly warmer temps. Low mainly in the single digits mountain 
valleys with fresh snow pack to mid teens champlain valley. if more 
clearing develops than anticipated...northeast kingdom and slk area 
could see first night of below 0f of the winter season. 

Sunday...relatively quiet and dry weather expected as we wait the 
arrival of our next system. Have mention some chance pops southern 
Saint Lawrence county as winds veer to the southwest 
winds...thinking weakening lake effect snow band may impact this 
region. Any accumulation would be light...given weak flow and 
developing shear. Based on warm air advection pattern and progged 
850 to 500mb rh>70% off the gfs...have increased pops to chance by 
00z across our southwest cwa. Thinking precip will quickly expand 
into our region...associated with strong developing low level 
southerly jet after 00z Monday. Temps continue below normal with 
highs mainly in the teens mountains to mid 20s valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EST Saturday...Models continue to show clipper 
type low moving across north central US and into the Great Lakes
region Sunday night. A warm front with strong isentropic lift 
out ahead of the surface low will spread snow SW to NE across 
the North Country Sunday night into Monday morning. Models show 
850mb jet stronger than previous runs, likely resulting in some 
shadowing effects of precip amounts in the valleys and 
enhancement on eastern/southeastern slopes. Heaviest precip 
looks to occur between 08z-15z Monday and have mentioned 
moderate snow. 

Impacts: Snowfall of 2-4 inches by 12Z Monday will affect the 
morning commute, along with potential for wind gusts of 15-25 
kts creating blowing snow and snow drifts. Snow continues 
throughout the morning before dry slot begins to taper off 
precip. Expect an additional 1-3 inches of snowfall with higher 
amounts possible, especially in the high terrain during the day 
Monday. 

Overall models have trended for a more northerly and quicker 
track of the associated surface low. Therefore, expect precip to
taper off before warmer air has chance to affect ptype in most 
areas. Immediate Champlain Valley could see rain mixing with 
snow briefly. Cold front will move across the region late in the
day with 925mb temps falling to around -4C Monday night. Some 
residual mountain snow possible Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 408 AM EST Saturday...The theme for the long term is cold
with chances for more snow. Broad west to northwesterly flow 
with periodic chances of snow showers expected as a large, 
modified arctic airmass persists across nearly the entire 
northern tier of the lower 48. Models continue to show potential
for some energy to move across the northeast mid to late work 
week, resulting in best chance for snow - although models still 
differ on details. Temperatures trend colder throughout the 
period with Friday max temps possibly remaining in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Vfr conditions will prevail through 12z
Sunday at all taf sites. Cannot rule out a 10 to 20 minute
window of mvfr in -shsn at slk/btv/mpv. Otherwise...building
surface high pres will produce northwest winds 5 to 15 knots
this morning becoming light and variable overnight.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday...
Vfr conditions thru 21z Sunday. Widespread light to occasional
moderate snow develops from southwest to northeast across our
taf sites on Sunday Night. Expecting ifr vis between 03z-15z
with intervals of lifr conditions possible...especially mpv/slk.
After 15z Monday...conditions will slowly improve with mainly
mvfr cigs/vis. Localized gusty southeast winds are possible on
Monday morning associated with low level jet of 35 to 45
knots...these winds will create areas of turbulence and wind
shear...especially near the terrain. Additional scattered snow
showers are possible Tuesday into Weds with brief periods of
ifr.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Taber

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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November 2009, Week 2
November 2009, Week 1
October 2009, Week 5
October 2009, Week 4
October 2009, Week 3
October 2009, Week 2
October 2009, Week 1
September 2009, Week 5
September 2009, Week 4
September 2009, Week 3
September 2009, Week 2
September 2009, Week 1
August 2009, Week 5
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August 2009, Week 1
July 2009, Week 5
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July 2009, Week 3
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July 2009, Week 1
June 2009, Week 5
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June 2009, Week 1
May 2009, Week 5
May 2009, Week 4
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May 2009, Week 2
May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 3
April 2009, Week 2
April 2009, Week 1
March 2009, Week 5
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
March 2009, Week 1
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February 2009, Week 2
February 2009, Week 1
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October 2008, Week 3
October 2008, Week 2
October 2008, Week 1
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September 2008, Week 3
September 2008, Week 2
September 2008, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 3
July 2008, Week 2
July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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June 2008, Week 3
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June 2008, Week 1
May 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 3
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May 2008, Week 1
April 2008, Week 5
April 2008, Week 4
April 2008, Week 3
April 2008, Week 2
April 2008, Week 1
March 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
February 2008, Week 5
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February 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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December 2007, Week 3
December 2007, Week 2
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November 2007, Week 3
November 2007, Week 2
November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
October 2007, Week 4
October 2007, Week 3
October 2007, Week 2
October 2007, Week 1
September 2007, Week 5
September 2007, Week 4
September 2007, Week 3
September 2007, Week 2
September 2007, Week 1
August 2007, Week 5
August 2007, Week 4
August 2007, Week 3
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August 2007, Week 1
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July 2007, Week 3
July 2007, Week 2
July 2007, Week 1
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June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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October 2006, Week 1
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September 2006, Week 2
September 2006, Week 1
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July 2006, Week 3
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July 2006, Week 1
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October 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
March 2005, Week 5
March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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April 2001, Week 1
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