Expires:201612122100;;767638
FPUS51 KBTV 121131
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016


VTZ006-122100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
629 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS 12 TO 25.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
.FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. LOWS
5 BELOW TO ZERO.
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
LOWS 2 BELOW TO 21 ABOVE ZERO. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201612121200;;767531
ASUS41 KBTV 121130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON DEC 12 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT SNOW 27 25 92 SE7 29.82F FOG WCI 19
MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 23 22 96 CALM 29.88F VSB 3/4
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 23 21 92 CALM 29.88F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 22 19 89 MISG 29.89F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 22 21 96 CALM 29.87F VSB 3/4
MIDDLEBURY* LGT SNOW 32 32 100 S9 29.82F WCI 24
RUTLAND* LGT SNOW 28 27 93 SE15 29.83F FOG WCI 17
SPRINGFIELD HVY SNOW 25 23 92 CALM 29.91F VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* LGT SNOW 26 24 91 SE12 29.82F WCI 15
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 22 20 93 S3 29.86F
BENNINGTON SNOW 31 29 92 VRB7 29.82F VSB 1/2 WCI 24
SUTTON* N/A 19 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 21 N/A N/A E7 N/A WCI 13
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 21 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 14 N/A N/A SE24G37 N/A WCI -5

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 30 28 93 SE12 N/A WCI 21
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 32 100 SE20 N/A WCI 20
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 30 30 100 S14 N/A WCI 20

$$


Expires:No;;768106
FXUS61 KBTV 121142
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EST Mon Dec 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A widespread 2 to 5 inch snowfall is expected today with
localized higher amounts possible in the mountains. The steadier
snow will end by midday with temperatures climbing into the
upper 20s to mid 30s. An arctic front will produce scattered
snow showers and possible snow squalls on Wednesday into
Thursday...followed by much below normal temperatures and
bitterly cold wind chills.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 629 AM EST Monday...Overall forecast remains in good shape
this morning with a general 1 to 3 inches so far occurring
across our region. Still anticipating storm total snow of 2 to 5
inches with isolated higher amounts over the mountains...given
fluff factor. Radar showing areas of lighter precip already
developing over the dacks...with back edge pushing across
central NY. Expecting another 2 to 4 hours of light to moderate
snow based on latest trends. Latest progged hrrr composite
reflectivity shows steadier precip ending across the southern
dacks/slv by 13z...central slv/southern vt by 14z...central
cpv/vt by 15z...and thru our entire area by 16z. Expecting
travel conditions to quickly improve by late morning...as temps
warm into the 30s and precip ends.

Winter Weather Advisory continues today with a hazardous
morning commute expected with poor visibilities and areas of
moderate snowfall. Still expecting a general 2 to 5 inch
snowfall...with localized higher amounts over the mountains.

Snow accumulations through this morning continue to be forecast
challenge followed by potential light rain/snow with patchy
freezing drizzle this afternoon into the overnight hours. Water
vapor shows potent 5h energy and associated trof over the
central Great Lakes this morning...with surface low pres over
northern MI. Strong dual 250mb jet structure is helping to
enhance deep layer lift across western/central NY...under a
moderate low to mid level warm air advection pattern. The best
combination of 850 to 700mb fgen forcing and deep 850 to 500mb
moisture lifts north of our cwa by 16z today...resulting in a
quick decrease in areal coverage and intensity of precip.
Snowfall rates within this band of moderate snow will be up to 1
inch per hours this morning with vis below 1sm at times.
Surface low pres tracking to our north and west will result in
some locally driven terrain effects...associated with southeast
winds from surface to 925mb and southwest from 925mb to 850mb.
These winds 25 to 35 knots at low levels and 35 to 45 knots at
850mb will cause some shadowing of precip/snowfall amounts
across the Champlain Valley/Western Slopes...Western Dacks...and
parts of the Northeast Kingdom. Especially near Rutland/East
Middlebury where radar continues to show holes in the precip. Thinking
general qpf amounts between 0.10 to 0.20 in these areas with
storm total snowfall of 2 to 5 inches. High fluff factor will
help us reach our expected snow amounts...even with lighter qpf
values expected. Mainly a 15 to 20 to 1 ratio this
morning...becoming 10/12 to 1 as warmer air works into the
region. Meanwhile...favorable upslope regions of the southern
Green Mountain near Ludlow/Killington up to the Sugarbush/Stowe
area should see a general 3 to 5 inch snowfall with localized
higher amounts up to 6 inches near the summits. Qpf generally
between 0.20 and 0.40. Also...a 3 to 5 inch snowfall is
expected across the eastern Dacks and parts of the Saint
Lawrence Valley.

By this afternoon well defined mid/upper level dry slot on water
vapor now across central Great Lakes impacts our region and precip
will quickly decrease in areal coverage and intensity. Unsure about
areas of drizzle...especially here in the CPV associated with
southwest downslope flow and latest RAP soundings showing too much
dry air in the low levels. Best chance for any leftover light snow
or freezing drizzle will be in the mountains mainly above 2000
feet...where moisture is better. The window for any freezing drizzle
is very small...mainly between 18z-22z today as moisture redevelops
in the snow growth region by 00z...as low level cold air advection
develops on back side of system. Temps today will be tricky...as we
stay relatively cool this morning with the steadier precip...but
should briefly warm this afternoon into the mid/upper 30s valleys to
near freezing mountains...before 850mb cold air advection develops
after 18z.

Tonight...850mb winds shift to the northwest and low level cold air
advection develops with progged 850mb temps falling to -10c by 12z
Tuesday. This favorable upslope flow...along with positive vorticity
advection from mid/upper level trof will produce additional terrain
focused precip overnight. Best 1000 to 700 mb moisture progs are
located along the international border...including the northern
dacks and green mountains. Thinking another 1 inch so of snow
accumulation is possible in the upslope regions with mainly dry
conditions elsewhere. Have continued with likely pops thru the
evening hours mountains and slight to chance pops elsewhere. Temps
cool from the teens summits to 20s mountain towns to near 30f
champlain and lower ct river valley by early Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Brief period of short wave ridging is expected Tuesday morning.
This will lead to the end of most showers with the exception of
the St Lawrence Valley seeing some isolated activity in the
afternoon. A shortwave associated with a large upper low over
central Canada will track through late Tuesday, helping to keep
skies cloudy. As the Canadian closed low slowly advances with
backing flow ahead of it, the lake effect snow band shifts
further north into the Adirondacks under the resulting
southwesterly flow. This flow will continue on Wednesday and
this moist west-southwesterly flow will continue snow showers in
the Adirondacks and higher peaks of Vermont through the day.
Snowfall amounts will range from 3-6 inches for the Adirondacks
and 1-3 inches for the Greens.

Temperatures should hold moderate after Monday's little warmup,
with lows in the teens and 20s and highs a few degrees on
either side of freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 348 AM EST Monday...Thursday looks for a drastic change
as the Canadian cold core upper low sinks southeast across the
Great Lakes and into the region. Coldest airmass since Feb
13-14th 2016 is poised to impact area on Thursday and Friday.
Bitterly cold wind chill values are expected with wind chill
highlights likely for portions of our region during this period.

The Arctic front should be moving into the St. Lawrence Valley
around 00z Thursday and progress east of Vermont by 12z
Thursday morning. A brief period of snow squalls along the front
as it passes seems likely. Gusty northwest winds 10 to 20 mph
and air temp in the teens will produce wind chills well below
zero Thursday morning. 850 mb temps as low as -30c settle over
the region Thursday night when the center of the upper low moves
overhead.

The low and cold pool of air to move east Friday with broad
ridging and a warmup into the 20s Saturday in return southerly
flow. Another system with continued good agreement between the
ECMWF and GFS will produce widespread accumulating snow and some
possible mixed precipitation along and ahead of the front
Saturday into Saturday night. Sunday will see lingering snow
showers in the higher elevations as the system exits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...Widespread light to moderate snow
continues across our taf sites this morning. Expecting ifr
conditions with periods of lifr conditions at MPV. Precip will
end between 14-16z with ifr trending toward mvfr/vfr conditions
this afternoon. Still expecting lingering mvfr cigs at slk
associated with upslope flow. Weak front helps to change winds
to northwest around 00z tonight and this will cause additional
snow showers to develop over our mountain taf sites. Mvfr
conditions with periods of ifr vis in snow shower activity is
possible at slk/mpv. Otherwise...a mix of mvfr/vfr conditions
prevail with northwest winds 5 to 10 knots overnight.

Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday...
High pres with mainly vfr conditions for Tuesday. Active pattern
develops for Weds into Thursday with a series of cold front and
potential snow showers and scattered snow squalls. Rapid changes
in vis/cigs are possible in snow squall activity...with brief
periods of vlifr conditions. Additional snow shower activity is
possible Thursday into Friday...associated with activity coming
of Lake Champlain and impacting the BTV taf site. Bottom line
expect changing conditions with occasional snow showers and snow
squalls from Weds into Thursday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Taber

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