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SKIVT-L  December 2016, Week 2

SKIVT-L December 2016, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 9 Dec 2016 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (220 lines)

Expires:201612092100;;608374
FPUS51 KBTV 090844
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
342 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016


VTZ006-092100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
342 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
LOWS AROUND 13. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 7 ABOVE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
20. 
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 15. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS 10 TO 15. CHANCE OF SNOW
50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 15 TO
20. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201612091200;;615565
ASUS41 KBTV 091130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 09 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    27  16  63 NW14G24   29.93R WCI  16          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    22  15  75 NW13      29.86R WCI  10          
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  24  14  65 W9        29.88R WCI  14          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  18  74 MISG      29.82R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT SNOW  21  16  81 W16G23    29.81R WCI   7          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    27  15  59 NW7       29.92R WCI  19          
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    27  13  55 NW13G29   29.88R WCI  16          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    25  16  68 W9G17     29.92R WCI  15          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  21  16  79 W14       29.83R WCI   8          
BENNINGTON     PTCLDY    27  19  72 W10G18    29.91R WCI  17          
SUTTON*          N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     21 N/A N/A W9          N/A  WCI  11          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A W31G44      N/A  WCI -12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  21  69 W26         N/A  WCI  16          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     30  21  69 NW25        N/A  WCI  16          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  16  55 W13         N/A  WCI  20          

$$


Expires:No;;612279
FXUS61 KBTV 090959
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
459 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The north country will be under cold advection today, as a cold
front has moved south of the region this morning. Daytime 
temperatures today will be mainly in the 20s, with a chance of 
snow showers over the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure
will build into the region on Saturday, with fair and dry
weather expected Saturday through Sunday morning. A warm front
approaching the region Sunday night will bring snow to the north
country Sunday night and Monday. This will likely result in a
messy and difficult commute Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EST Friday...A cold front has moved south of the 
region early this morning. The high temperatures for the 
calender day today have already occurred around midnight, so 
expecting temperatures today to remain nearly steady or continue
to fall slightly. Daytime temperatures today will be mainly in 
the 20s, with gusty northwest winds making it feel colder. 
Expecting some scattered snow showers today, mainly over the 
Adirondacks and the Green Mountains. The north country will be 
under cold advection today with mostly cloudy skies. 

Tonight, winds will slowly diminish overnight as a high pressure
area builds slowly east from the Great Lakes, as surface
pressure gradient weakens. Also, expecting any residual snow
shower activity to diminish tonight, as high pressure build east
from the Great Lakes. Lows tonight will be mainly in the teens,
with some single digits above zero over the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 459 AM EST Friday...West to northwest flow and some weak 
vorticity embedded in the mid level flow may see an isolated 
snow shower concentrated around the Northern Greens. Some mid 
level ridging follows on Saturday night with brief period of 
ridging at the surface as well. Temperatures continue to be 
below normal by approx 5 to 10 degrees. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 459 AM EST Friday...Late Sunday through Sunday night sees
snow spread across the area in strong isentropic lift 
associated with low pressure system approaching from southern 
Lake Michigan area. 00Z ECMWF and GFS showing fairly good 
agreement as sfc low tracks to eastern Great Lakes come early 
Monday, transitioning to more of a coastal low Monday 
evening/night near Nova Scotia. Differences in exact track and 
timing remain with low level thermal profiles differing as well.
Overall expect bulk of precip to be in the form of snow 
starting Sunday evening through Monday morning, possibly some 
wintry mix Monday during the day for southern Champlain Valley 
and south central VT. Cold air at all levels rushes back in 
Monday evening as the sfc low becomes coastal. Models indicate 
heaviest QPF to occur Monday morning, making for a sloppy 
commute to say the least. As wintry precip continues all day 
Monday, expect Monday afternoon commute to also be affected. 
Wrap around moisture behind departing sfc low in west to NW flow
will see snow tapering off Tuesday morning, concentrated around
the higher terrain. Storm total snowfall forecast currently 
sitting at widespread 4 to 7 inches possible through 06Z 
Tuesday. Lastly, wind could also be an issue on Monday as strong
southerly 850mb jet of 30-40kts could persist through Tuesday. 

Next feature will bring some nuisance snow to the area Tuesday 
night, ahead of large mid level closed low moving southeastward 
across central Canada. GFS and ECMWF vary greatly on the track 
and timing of mid level low and therefore possible surface 
reflections and associated precipitation potential. GFS remains 
more active over the North COuntry and ECMWF further south and 
east, focusing on more coastal systems. Therefore, lots of 
uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Colder temperatures also in question
beyond Tuesday as ECMWF more progressive with large cold pool 
moving into the North Country faster and stronger. Overall 925mb
temps in the negative teens to - 20C look to close out the 
week. 

&&

.AVIATION /10Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 06Z Saturday...As an upper level trough is moving
through the region, the combination of cyclonic flow, upslope 
and lake- effect activity will allow for isolated snow showers 
over the region overnight. Right now KSLK looks to be the most 
active overnight with periods of MVFR/IFR with passing showers. 
All other locations could experience a period of MVFR conditions 
overnight as the upper trough moves through but should stay VFR 
overall with snow shower potential tapering off by mid-day. 
Southwesterly winds at 05-15 knots will shift to the Northwest 
at 10-20 knots overnight and into Friday morning.


Outlook 06Z Saturday through Monday...

VFR ceilings Saturday morning into Sunday. Next system arrives 
on Sunday afternoon with another widespread light snow event. 
This system will produce widespread ifr conditions between 18z 
Sunday into 12z Monday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...MV

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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