Expires:201612172100;;013787
FPUS51 KBTV 170804
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016
VTZ006-172100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
302 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
.TODAY...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST
15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 3 BELOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. HIGHS
AROUND 20.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS
AROUND 30.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
$$
Expires:201612171200;;022645
ASUS41 KBTV 171130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT DEC 17 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-171200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON LGT SNOW 20 15 81 S10 30.09R WCI 9
MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 12 8 84 S8 30.11F FOG WCI 0
MORRISVILLE LGT SNOW 10 6 84 CALM 30.10F FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 1 -5 75 MISG 30.13F
LYNDONVILLE* LGT SNOW 2 -1 85 CALM 30.09F
MIDDLEBURY* FLURRIES 19 13 76 S12 30.09S WCI 7
RUTLAND* FLURRIES 16 11 80 SE12 30.09F WCI 3
SPRINGFIELD LGT SNOW 7 2 80 CALM 30.17F
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 10 6 83 S6 30.08F WCI 1
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 21 11 65 S10G16 30.10F WCI 10
SUTTON* N/A 5 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 1 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 3 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 5 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 3 N/A N/A SE24G37 N/A WCI -20
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 21 19 93 SE16 N/A WCI 7
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 25 23 93 S32 N/A WCI 7
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 19 18 93 S18 N/A WCI 4
$$
Expires:No;;017133
FXUS61 KBTV 170918
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
418 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring light to moderate snowfall this
morning...with snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches expected. After
a break this afternoon and evening...a mix of sleet and freezing
rain will develop tonight, changing to plain rain across western
Vermont and the Champlain Islands. Potential exists for around a
tenth of an inch of ice accumulation across northern New York
and areas east of the Green Mountains in Vermont. A cold front
will sweep eastward across the North Country with precipitation
ending as a few snow showers Sunday Afternoon. High pressure
brings quieter weather conditions Monday through Wednesday of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Saturday...Going winter weather advisories
continue unchanged. Steady light snow is developing from south
to north across the North Country at 08Z in low-level WAA
regime. Deep dendrite growth will yield high snow-to-liquid
ratios of 15:1 to 18:1 this morning...contributing to expected
3-5" snowfall accumulations by 18Z, likely highest across
s-central VT. Forcing shifts east of our region this afternoon
with a break in precipitation generally between 18Z and 02Z this
evening. During that time, will see continued overcast skies,
and south winds will allow temps to climb into the mid-upr 20s
in most areas.
Frontal wave develops across across nern OH and wrn NY this
evening, and tracks newd across the St. Lawrence Valley through
12Z Sunday. Deep SW flow in advance of this frontal wave brings
additional warming aloft, with 850mb temps approaching +8 to +9C
on a pronounced swly low-level jet of 60-70kts. Thus, as
precipitation redevelops tonight (03-12Z Sunday), will see mixed
wintry precipitation...sleet to freezing rain/rain. Generally
changing to plain rain on the VT side of the Champlain Valley
and the Champlain Is. with strong south flow channeled northward
and 2-m temps climbing into the mid-upr 30s. Such will not be
the case elsewhere given antecedent arctic air mass. Will be a
very slow process to get temps above freezing in the immediate
St. Lawrence Valley (with nely sfc winds) and also east of the
Greens, where the dense cold air is slow to scour out, and with
cold pavement temps. Based on NCEP 4km NAM and BTV-4km WRF,
should see a period of sleet going to several hours of freezing
rain in above mentioned spots, with potential for icy road
conditions, especially 06-12z Sunday. Total ice accretion
likely 0.10" to 0.15"...not enough generally for utility
concerns, but definitely a concern for travel. Thus, the winter
weather advisory looks good right now across nrn NY and
central/ern VT thru 12z Sunday. Portions of the area - such as
the higher elevations of the Adirondacks - will probably see
threat of freezing rain end earlier with temps warming faster
aloft...so threat of icing may well be over by 05Z or so in
portions of the nrn Adirondacks. Overnight temps continue non-
diurnal trends, slowly warming thru the upr 20s and lower 30s,
except mid-upr 30s wrn Rutland county nwd thru the VT side of
the Champlain Valley.
Sunday will see early period of steady rain before cold front
sweeps ewd across the CWA between 15-18Z. Temps reach 40F most
locations in advance of frontal bndry, then fall sharply during
the aftn with W-WNWLY wind shift. With strong low-level CAA and
p-gradient Sunday afternoon following FROPA, conditions are
favorably for wind gusts 30-35 mph Sunday aftn across the
region. Precipitation ends quickly, but may do so as a few
flurries/mtn snow showers Sunday afternoon. Temps fall into the
upr teens/lower 20s across nrn NY by early evening, and into the
upr 20s across much of VT by 22Z Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Saturday...Sunday evening as the low pressure
system pushes north towards Nova Scotia and a broad area of
surface high pressure builds in, the synoptic flow will become
northwest. This will lead to some brief backside bonus snowfall
however the depth of the RH layer will be limited so I dont
anticipate more than an inch or two of snow to fall along the
western slopes of the Dack's and the Greens. The 850mb flow will
be fairly strong as a 40 to 50kt low level jet tracks across
the evening Sunday night. This will lead to gusty winds in the
valleys and strong winds in the higher elevation locales amongst
the North Country. With high pressure returning and clearing
skies expect a return of colder air through Monday. Expect lows
in the single digits above zero in the Champlain and Saint
Lawrence Valleys with subfreezing temps across the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom. Temps gradually warm during the day
however we will remain below normal with max temps only expected
to peak in the mid teens above zero.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 404 AM EST Saturday...Much of the mid week will be
dominated by a broad CONUS trough at 500mb. Near the surface
high pressure should keeps skies generally on the clearer side
with sunshine expected most of the time with dry weather. We
gradually warm to near to slightly above normal with expect
highs warming to the mid teens by Wednesday with overnight lows
warming to well above normal in the mid 20s Wednesday evening.
The consensus of the medium ranged guidance is that there will
be a weak northern stream shortwave that should pass to our
north on Wednesday setting the stage of a system to bring
widespread snowfall Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.
There still is quite a bit of variance in the consensus however.
The GFS and EC differ on the strength of the 500mb trough and
that impacts the amount of cyclogenesis that develops. The EC
develops a more robust low inside of benchmark where as the GFS
has an open wave associated with a positively titled upper level
trough. Either way the idea of another warm advection 2-4
inches of snow will be possible towards the end of the week but
timing and location will become clearer with future model
cycles. Temps will remain above normal with highs in the 30s and
lows well above normal in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...A warm front will approach Vermont from
the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic states overnight, with light
snow developing across the region between 07Z-10Z Saturday.
Conditions lowering to IFR/LIFR in snow throughout the region by
10Z Saturday, and continuing through 00Z Sunday. After 00Z
Sunday, expecting a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain
across the region, as warm air at the surface and aloft moves
into the region. Eastern Vermont and the Saint Lawrence valley
of northern New York will see temperatures remaining mainly
below freezing, so expecting a prolonged period of sleet and
freezing rain in those areas. Surface winds mainly from the
south-southwest at 5 to 10 knots through the period.
Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...
06Z Sunday to 00Z Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions becoming a
wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and rain Saturday night, to
mainly rain Sunday morning, and eventually back to snow Sunday
afternoon.
00Z Monday to 00Z Wednesday...Improvement back to VFR 00-12z
Monday, followed by VFR under high pressure. Slight chance of
MVFR/IFR lake effect at KMSS/KSLK Monday afternoon/night.
00Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday...VFR with scattered MVFR snow
showers possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate to strong pressure gradients winds will continue to
channel up Lake Champlain producing gusty 20-25kts out of the
south. Expect by noon that the pressure gradient will begin to
weaken, and with it the winds should begin to relax. The
moderate southerly flow will cause choppy conditions along the
lake with 2-4ft waves possible. These choppy waves will
especially impact Cumberland Bay and Saint Albans Bay with south
facing openings.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for VTZ003-004-
006>008-010-012.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
VTZ001-002-005-009-011-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ026>031-
034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...WGH/Lahiff
MARINE...
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