Expires:201612152100;;912038
FPUS51 KBTV 150834
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
331 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
VTZ006-152100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
331 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EST FRIDAY...
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 13. WEST WINDS 15 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 8 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 8 ABOVE. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS
AROUND 3 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...RAIN OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
80 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 10 TO 15.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE.
HIGHS 13 TO 23.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 20S.
$$
Expires:201612151200;;919433
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON PTCLDY 20 0 41 W12G22 29.63R WCI 8
MONTPELIER FLURRIES 16 7 67 W12G20 29.59S WCI 3
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 17 6 62 CALM 29.59S
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 17 12 80 MISG 29.56F
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 13 10 85 S5 29.54F WCI 5
MIDDLEBURY* LGT SNOW 19 14 83 S5 29.63R WCI 12
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 20 6 55 SW10G22 29.62S WCI 9
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 21 4 47 W18G30 29.64S WCI 6
HIGHGATE* FAIR 18 7 62 W8 29.61R WCI 8
NEWPORT* MOCLDY 16 7 67 SW9 29.55S WCI 4
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 19 1 45 W10G26 29.68R WCI 7
SUTTON* N/A 9 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 14 N/A N/A SW6 N/A WCI 5
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 10 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 14 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 5 N/A N/A W36G47 N/A WCI -21
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 23 14 68 SW14 N/A WCI 11
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 25 12 58 W24 N/A WCI 9
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 23 12 63 W13 N/A WCI 11
$$
Expires:No;;914638
FXUS61 KBTV 150933
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
433 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of cold fronts moving across the North Country will produce
occasional snow showers and snow squalls, with sudden changes in
visibilities and the potential to drop a couple inches of snow in a
short period of time. Bitterly cold wind chill values are expected
Thursday Night into Friday with values between 10 and 30 degrees
below zero. Our next system for the weekend will produce a
widespread mixed precipitation event, as temperatures warm back to
near normal.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 431 AM EST Thursday...Lingering lake effect snow is still
shifting to the south with Central VT seeing some moderate snow
bands. High res models have done a good job depicting the band
showing snow showers holding on as the continue to slide south
through the south central counties of Vermont around sunrise
before weakening as they move out of the CWA. Along with this
band, the prevailing flow will be northwesterly and some upslope
snow showers are possible during the day. 1-2 inches of snow in
the Northwest facing slopes of the Adirondacks and Green
mountains can be expected by the end of the day. Thursday is the
beginning of a couple brutally cold days with maximum
temperatures only reaching the teens across the area, with most
highs in the morning as temps fall throughout the day with the
invading arctic air. There will also be below zero and bitterly
cold wind chill values at the summits on Thursday.
Dangerously cold wind chill values are expected Thursday Night
and into Friday with readings near -25 in the valleys to -35 in
the mountain towns and as low as -60 at the summits. The arctic
air mass blasts into the North Country with blustery and bitter
west to northwest winds between 15 and 30 mph on Thursday
evening leading to the coldest night of the season.
Min temperatures will be below zero across the region with
negative teens in the higher elevations. Our entire forecast
area is under either a Wind Chill Warning or Wind Chill Advisory
through Friday morning. Low level west-northwest flow will
become favorable for a lake effect snow band to form off of Lake
Champlain during this timeframe as well with very cold air
moving over relatively warm lake water. Would not be surprised
at a few waterspouts/steam devils over the lake on Friday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Thursday...Surface high pressure crests over
NY and New England during the day Friday, with arctic air mass
still in place. Should see lighter wind speeds vcnty surface
ridge, but with 850mb temps still -20C to -25C, looking at
afternoon highs only 10-15F in most areas (about 20deg below the
climo average for mid-December). May still see some low
clouds/flurries off Lake Champlain early, but with dryness of
the air mass, anticipate most areas seeing a period of mostly
sunny conditions.
Ridge axis quickly shifts southeast of New England Friday night.
Will be watching a warm frontal zone lifting NEWD from the upper OH
valley and PA. Developing strong low-level WAA regime with SSWLY
850mb jet of 50-55kt anticipated across PA/srn tier of NY toward
daybreak Saturday, per 03Z SREF mean. Anticipate increasing mid-
level clouds thru the first half of Friday night. May see a few snow
showers across wrn St. Lawrence county as Lake Ontario snow band
dissipates and remaining moisture is advected northward. Otherwise,
warm frontal/isentropic ascent arrives between 06-08Z across srn
tier of the forecast area, and into BTV and nrn counties/intl border
during 08-12Z Saturday time frame. Should see strong synoptic UVV
producing steady light to moderate snow through 16-18Z Saturday. UVV
fields also line up well with dendrite growth zone (-12C to -18C),
so snow microphysics should be optimal for several hrs Saturday
morning. Looks like an advisory level event (impact: slow travel)
with snowcovered roadways, low vsby, and total snow accumulations of
3-7" possible, highest across s-central VT based on 00z NWP model
suite. With departing arctic air, snow to liquid ratios start high
(18:1 to 20:1), but drop toward a more climo typical 13:1 to 15:1 by
18Z Saturday as first wave of precipitation ends. Despite the WAA,
it appears initial burst of pcpn will be all snow. Should see skies
remaining overcast with stratus layer, but not much precipitation
during the afternoon hrs. Highs on Saturday will reach the upr 20s
to lower 30s, except mid 20s far nern VT. Sfc winds on Saturday
generally S-SE 5-10kts, but locally nely in the St. Lawrence Valley
with orographically channeled flow directed toward low pressure.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Thursday...After the initial surge of strong
850-700mb WAA moves past by 18Z Saturday, we'll be in a relative
lull in precipitation with sfc low across sern Michigan and
deep-layer SWLY flow across the Ohio Valley newd into our
region. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF track the surface low (992mb
or so) just to the north and west of the St. Lawrence Valley. As
this occurs, a shortwave trough embedded in swly flow tracks
newd across our region, likely bringing a second wave of
precipitation to our region later Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Thermal profiles continue to warm aloft...so this
second wave will generally be a wintry mix, with intermittent
sleet, changing to periods of freezing rain in the St. Lawrence
Valley and east of the Green Mtns with lingering sub-freezing
air. Should see sleet to all rain scenario across wrn VT as
temps rise to the upr 30s toward daybreak Sunday. Looking at
some icy roads possible with ice accumulations up to 0.10" for
the St. Lawrence River Vly, and central/ern VT. Doesn't appear
to be enough to cause power concerns due to ice loading, but
will be localized travel concerns in those areas where temps
remain below freezing late Sat night into Sunday morning. We've
begun to highlight this in the morning hazardous weather
outlook.
As surface low tracks to our north across swrn Quebec, trailing cold
front sweeps ewd across the area 12-18Z Sunday. May see some snow
showers as precipitation ends Sunday afternoon and winds shift into
the W-NW. Highs Sunday will be early in the day, generally low-mid
30s across nrn NY, and upr 30s to around 40F across VT ahead of the
cold front.
Sunday night through Wednesday looks seasonably cold and drier with
high pressure generally in place. Coldest day should be Monday, with
highs only in the teens to lower 20s. Should see some moderation
after that with low-mid level flow becoming swly; high temps
back into the mid-upr 20s on Tue and lower 30s on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...Currently, a lake effect snow band
extending from Lake Ontario into the Adirondacks and the
foothills of the Greens is affecting with areas of IFR/LIFR in
snow. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions. The band is sliding
southwards and should weaken as it continues to do so. The
arctic cold front will move south from Canada overnight,
entering the Saint Lawrence valley in northern New York around
08Z Thursday and will be south of the forecast area by 15Z
Thursday. Not much moisture with this arctic front, so will put
in snow showers in the vicinity at most of the TAF sites.
Expecting northwest surface winds to gusts at or above 20 knots
after the frontal passage and continue through 00Z Friday.
Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...
06Z Fri- 06Z Sat...Trending VFR as high pressure builds atop
region.
06Z Sat onward...Trending MVFR/IFR in snow and/or mixed
precipitation as large storm system tracks toward the Great
Lakes. Conditions will improve to VFR by 00Z Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Wednesday...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
for increasingly hazardous conditions on the open waters of Lake
Champlain. An arctic air mass moving into the region this
evening combined with relatively warm lake waters will produce
gusty to strong winds across the Lake Champlain basin beginning
tonight and likely lasting through Friday morning. West to
northwest winds will generally range from 15 to 25 knots over
the next 36 to 48 hours, with periods of stronger winds of 20 to
30 knots likely, especially during the night-time hours. Winds
of this magnitude will create extremely choppy and hazardous
conditions on the open waters with wave heights generally in the
3 to 5 foot range, though briefly larger towards 6 to 7 feet
Thursday night. Those with interests on the lake over the next
48 hours should exercise extreme caution, and plan accordingly.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Chill Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Friday for VTZ003-004-006>008-016>018.
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Friday for VTZ001-002-005-009>012-019.
NY...Wind Chill Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Friday for NYZ029>031-034.
Wind Chill Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Friday for NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MV
NEAR TERM...MV
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...WGH/MV
MARINE...Lahiff
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