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SKIVT-L  December 2016, Week 3

SKIVT-L December 2016, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 21 Dec 2016 06:50:03 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (223 lines)

Expires:201612212100;;229927
FPUS51 KBTV 211131
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST WED DEC 21 2016


VTZ006-212100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
629 AM EST WED DEC 21 2016

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.CHRISTMAS DAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 30.
LOWS 13 TO 25. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201612211200;;229777
ASUS41 KBTV 211130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED DEC 21 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-211200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY    28  14  55 S10       29.96R WCI  19          
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    28  17  63 VRB3      29.95S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    31  17  56 S9        29.93S WCI  23          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     22  10  60 MISG      29.94R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      19   9  63 E5        29.93R WCI  13          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    29  13  51 S9        30.01R WCI  20          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    31  17  56 SW5       30.01R WCI  26          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    13   7  77 CALM      30.03R                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A     29  19  64 S8        29.93R WCI  21          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    20  14  77 CALM      30.05R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     23 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI  17          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A W30         N/A  WCI  -4          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  25  74 S22         N/A  WCI  19          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  27  80 S26         N/A  WCI  18          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     30  21  69 S9          N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;224292
FXUS61 KBTV 210924
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
424 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies will continue through the day today with flurries
and or snow showers expected in the mountains as a weak system
passes north of the North Country.  Then a warm front will bring
rain and snow showers to the region Thursday. Temperatures will
continue to moderate as warm air advection remains in place
through the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 333 AM EST Wednesday...Southerly channeled flow has
continued in the Champlain Valley and has keep temps from
falling through the evening. The warm air advection will
continue through the rest of the evening for areas west of the
spine of the Greens. Latest IR satellite shows variable cloud
cover remain mostly due to the lack moisture below 700mb as
evidenced in the 00z soundings from both Maniwaki and Albany.
The dry air aloft will persist through Wednesday as a weak 850mb
shortwave trough passes to our north. Some of the energy from
that trough will drop far enough south as the 500mb trough
moves into New England this afternoon. This will cause some 
orographic snow showers and or flurries in the mountains. Winds 
will be fairly strong with 850mb flow westerly at 40kts. So I
would expect the Champlain Valley and eastern slopes to be
shadowed from any flurries or snow showers.

Temperatures will trend mild as we stay under the persistent 
south to southwesterly flow. Mean 925-850 mb thermal profiles 
continue to moderate over time, supporting high temperatures 
solidly into the 30s for most locations by Wednesday afternoon.
Late in the overnight hours a warm front will begin to lift
north and bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the region
lifting from the southwest to the northeast. Timing based on 
the 00z suite of guidance brings showers into northern New York
and southern Vermont by 09z and spreading north quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Wednesday...Well defined shortwave trough 
moves across the area during the day on Thursday. System is 
rather progressive and while dynamic support increases over the 
area...there just is not a lot of moisture associated with it. 
Nevertheless...precipitation will be widespread through the 
morning hours and then taper off from west to east in the 
afternoon. Overall looking at 1 to 3 inches for most of the 
area...but north central and northeast Vermont will have the 
best chance to see some spots approaching 4 inches. In 
addition...some of the larger valleys will warm enough to have 
precipitation change over to some rain before coming to an end. 
Drying takes place Thursday night and especially on Friday as 
upper ridging builds in. High temperatures both Thursday and 
Friday will be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 AM EST Wednesday...Trends in the data continue to 
suggest a better chance for precipitation on Saturday with upper
trough moving across the area. Still looking at highs in the 
30s to around 40 and thus looking at precipitation in the form 
of rain and snow. Could see a couple of inches of snow with this
system. Warmer and progressive nature of this system should 
limit snow amounts. Christmas Day and night look dry with upper 
ridging building. Next system moves in later Monday into Tuesday
and with southwest flow aloft ahead of this trough and surface 
low tracking to our northwest it will be on the warmer side 
again with rain and snow Monday and Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue as ir satl shows
clouds increasing from west to east across our taf sites.
Soundings continue to support vfr conditions trending toward
mvfr cigs at slk/mpv btwn 06-08z. These conditions are expected
to persist on Weds. Also...gusty south to southwest winds 10 to
20 knots with some localized higher gusts are possible 
overnight...with areas of turbulence and low level wind 
shear. On Weds...expecting mainly vfr except intervals of mvfr 
cigs continuing at slk/mss...with maybe a period of ifr. A few 
light flurries/snow showers are possible at slk...with brief 
decrease in sfc vis. 

Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday... Weak clipper system will
provide taf sites with light snow on late Weds Night into 
Thursday with mvfr cigs/vis and intervals of ifr vis in the 
heavier burst of snow. Conditions quickly improve by 00z Friday 
as wind shift to the northwest and some lingering mountains snow
showers persist at slk/mpv...with mvfr. elsewhere...vfr 
conditions prevail. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible on 
Saturday with vfr expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continued to channel up the Champlain Valley however as 
the pressure gradient weakens mid morning the winds should relax
to below lake wind advisory criteria. Due to the long period of
southerly flow and long fetch of winds the waves should remain 
quite choppy well into the afternoon with 2-4 waves possible. 
The worse conditions will be in any south facing bay where 
conditions will be especially choppy.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Deal
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Deal

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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March 2009, Week 3
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