Expires:201612162100;;967332
FPUS51 KBTV 161026
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
524 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016


VTZ006-162100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
524 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

.TODAY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS
AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 31 BELOW. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLOUDY WITH SNOW
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS
AROUND 6 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN WITH POSSIBLE SNOW OR
SLEET. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID
20S. TEMPERATURE RISING INTO THE MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE
MID 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 10 TO 15. LOWS ZERO
TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND
20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201612161200;;969745
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    -2 -13  59 NW16      30.29R WCI -23          
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    -8 -14  74 NW13G23   30.18R HAZE    WCI -28  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    -7 -18  59 N3        30.24R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -6 -21  48 MISG      30.18R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY   -10 -18  66 W8        30.15R HAZE    WCI -26  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      -4 -16  56 N6        30.27R WCI -16          
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     -8 -16  67 CALM      30.22R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     -3 -18  48 W12       30.22R WCI -21          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -9 -17  67 CALM      30.31R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY   -11 -19  66 N5        30.20R WCI -23          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     -6 -15  65 CALM      30.23R                  
SUTTON*          N/A    -11 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -11 N/A N/A NW8         N/A  WCI -28          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -11 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     -6 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    -20 N/A N/A W39G52      N/A  WCI -57          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      0  -8  71 NW13        N/A  WCI -18          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      1  -4  78 NW17        N/A  WCI -19          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A      1 -11  55 NW10G23     N/A  WCI -14          

$$


Expires:No;;970254
FXUS61 KBTV 161149
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
649 AM EST Fri Dec 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bitterly cold wind chill values continue this morning with 
values between 10 and 30 degrees below zero. Winds will subside
later this morning but temperatures in the single digits and 
low teens will remain through the day. This weekend a low 
pressure system will bring warming temperatures and a wintry mix
of precipitation. Expect a few inches of snow on Saturday, 
changing to mixed precipitation Sunday night and then rain by 
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 632 AM EST Friday...Have made some adjustments to the
temperatures in the St Lawrence Valley and parts of the 
Adirondacks as winds have begun to lighten a bit, allowing those
areas to drop temperature-wise. Have also made some minor
adjustment to the persistent lake induced lower clouds over the
Vermont side of the central Champlain Valley extending through 
Central Vermont. 


Previous Discussion...Bitter cold and wind chills continue 
around the area as a pool of 850mb temps of -30C linger over the
CWA and should continue to do so for the next few hours. 
Canadian low is finally shifting to the East as surface ridge 
over the Great lakes edges it's way into the region. The 
gradient begins to loosen later this morning, allowing the gust 
winds to finally subside. Despite this, dangerously cold wind 
chills will continue throughout late morning due to the frigid 
cold temperatures the single digits barely above zero. 

As the afternoon progresses temps will climb back into double
digits and then into the teens ahead of the next low pressure
system over the midwest that looks to produce a messy mix this
weekend. Increasing clouds ahead of a strong warm will move in
this afternoon and temps will gradually warm into the upper
teens and lower 20s by Saturday morning. Around 06z will see the
onset of light to occasionally moderate snowfall starting the
Adirondacks moving southwest to northeast across the region
through 12z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Friday...Steady light to briefly moderate snowfall
associated with low-level warm advection and isentropic ascent 
over prevailing arctic air mass continues thru late 
morning/early aftn across the North Country. Deep saturated
dendrite growth layer at 12Z Saturday will yield best snowfall
rates and highest snow-to-liquid ratios early, with activity
gradually becoming more intermittent as best 850-700mb warm
advection moves to our north and east by early aftn. Cobb based
snow to liquid ratios start 16:1 to 18:1 in the morning, before
decreasing to 11:1 to 12:1 by afternoon. Combined with expected
liquid equiv. of 0.2 to 0.4", anticipate a widespread 3-5"
snowfall across the North Country, with localized 6" amts
especially across s-central VT where best forcing/QPF is
forecast. Have issued a winter weather advisory all areas to
cover this event Saturday morning, which should yield some
travel slowdowns due to snow covered roadways. A lull in
precipitation during the aftn and early evening should yield
better travel conditions. Temperatures will be warmer compared
to Friday's highs...with aftn readings in the 25-30F range. 

Deep layer SW flow prevails Saturday night with warm front along
intl border, and second wave of low pressure across sern MI and
sern Ontario. This next wave of low pressure will track near or
just to the north and west of the St. Lawrence valley during
Saturday night. In the meantime, continued WAA will result in
+4C to +6C temps near 850mb by 09Z Sunday. So, thermal profiles
will increasingly support a wintry mix after 00z Sunday, with a
trend from IP to mainly rain in the Champlain Valley and wrn
slopes of the Green Mtns, and IP to freezing rain across the St.
Lawrence Valley and areas east of the Green Mtns. Pavement temps
will be very slow to warm in these areas with antecedent arctic
air. As such, may see an issue with icy roads early Sunday
morning with next wave of precipitation areawide during the
pre-dawn hrs. Up to 0.10-0.15" of ice accumulation is possible
across far nrn NY and across e-central into nern VT. Not
expected to be an issue for power lines, but icy surfaces will
be a danger for motorists/pedestrians. Because of this, the
winter weather advisory extends thru 7am Sunday across nrn NY
and areas of VT east of the Green Mtns. Temps generally slowly 
rise Saturday night, to 32-33F in the nrn St. Lawrence Valley 
and sheltered areas east of the Green Mtns, to the mid-upr 30s 
in the Champlain Valley with developing south winds. 

On Sunday, should see a period of plain rain areawide as surface
low tracks into srn Quebec. Trailing cold front eventually
sweeps ewd across the North Country from W-E, and may see rain
end as a few snow showers Sunday aftn, especially across the
higher terrain. Early high temps will be in the upr 30s to lower
40s before falling in the aftn with W-NW winds 10-20mph with
gusts to 30 mph following FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 337 AM EST Friday...Much quieter weather is expected
across the North Country for much of the extended forecast
period. High pressure builds into the region for Sunday night
and Monday with mostly clear skies. Following Sunday's frontal
passage, will be our coldest day of next week with highs Monday
generally in the upr teens to lower 20s. Once the surface ridge
shifts to our east, developing S-SW flow brings moderating temps
into the mid 30s for Tue/Wed with generally quiet wx 
conditions. Next shortwave trough arriving Thursday night into 
Friday will bring potential snow or a rain/snow mix, but 
amplitude of trough varies considerably between the (stronger) 
00Z GFS and the (less amplified) 00z ECMWF soln. Have carried 
chance PoPs at this point. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Mostly clear skies around the area with
the exception of some Lake Champlain induced MVFR clouds over 
KBTV and KMPV. These clouds should clear out in a few hours 
bringing both stations to VFR as well. Gusty northwest surface 
are coming to an end at most locations as the surface pressure 
gradient diminishes and a ridge of high pressure builds over the
region. Winds will be out of the South at 05-10 knots for the 
remainder of the period. Increased clouds this afternoon ahead 
of a warm front will also bring MVFR/IFR conditions late in the 
period after 09Z with widespread snow and lower ceilings.


Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday... 

12Z Sat - 00z Mon...MVFR/IFR in snow Saturday, mixing with rain
Saturday night and changing to all rain on Sunday. Large storm 
system tracks through the Great Lakes & across forecast area 
bringing warming temperatures. 

00z Monday - 00 Wednesday...High pressure to move in.
Improvement to VFR 00-12z Monday followed by VFR to VFR Clear
through Tuesday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday 
     for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
     Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for VTZ003-004-
     006>008-016>018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for VTZ001-
     002-005-009>012-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for 
     VTZ001-002-005-009-011-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday 
     for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ029>031-
     034.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for 
     NYZ026>028-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MV
NEAR TERM...MV
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...MV

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