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SKIVT-L  January 2017, Week 2

SKIVT-L January 2017, Week 2

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 11 Jan 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (282 lines)

Expires:201701112100;;329401
FPUS51 KBTV 111137
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017


VTZ006-112100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
635 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE
IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE
OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 15 IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

$$


Expires:201701111200;;329013
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 40 35 83 S23G38 29.84R WCI 30
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 40 32 73 SW16G26 29.92R WCI 31
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 42 35 76 SW13G24 29.84R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 39 36 89 MISG 29.87R
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 36 35 94 SE12G21 29.87R WCI 28
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 40 28 64 S13G20 29.95R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 44 33 65 S16G26 29.94R
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 39 35 86 S9 29.98S
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 40 34 80 S20G29 29.77R WCI 30
NEWPORT* DRIZZLE 37 34 87 S14G24 29.80S WCI 29
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 42 33 70 SW12G21 30.01R
SUTTON* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 39 34 81 S36G45 N/A WCI 26
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 37 87 S39G48 N/A WCI 28
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 39 36 87 S23G29 N/A WCI 29

$$


Expires:No;;323549
FXUS61 KBTV 110916
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
416 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moving well to our northwest across northern
Ontario will continue to bring gusty south to southwest winds
to the North Country this morning. Also, intermittent light
mixed wintry precipitation will lead to a few icy spots on
secondary and back roads early this morning. After a dry period
this afternoon and much of tonight, another frontal system with
low pressure passing to our west will bring additional light to
moderate rainfall to the North Country for Thursday into the
first half of Thursday night. Temperatures today and Thursday
will be well above mid-January normals, with highs generally in
the 40s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s. More
seasonable and drier weather returns to the North Country Friday
and through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 332 AM EST Wednesday...Have reoriented our wind advisories
to include the St. Lawrence Valley and all of Clinton Co.
through 16Z this morning. Have seen very strong swly wind gusts
of 50-60mph behind the approaching trough axis across wrn NY.
While some weakening is expected, still anticipate gusts around
50mph around MSS 11-13Z and adjacent areas with channeled flow
in the St. Lawrence Valley. Elsewhere, still seeing gusts 35-40
mph range, but the southerly gusts are generally below advisory
level. Have opted to allow remainder of the wind advisories/high
wind warnings to expire, and threat of 50 mph gusts in the St.
Lawrence Valley should also end by 15-16Z this morning.

Rapidly newd moving shortwave trough associated with a variety
of precipitation types across the North Country at 08Z. While no
significant snow/sleet accumulations are forecast (<1"), getting
some rain falling onto cold surfaces causing some icing
conditions, especially for secondary and back roads, despite 2-m
temps generally mid-upr 30s areawide. Have highlighted this in
the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Should see precipitation ending quickly by 11-12Z with trough
passage and loss of large-scale forcing. Anticipate partly to
mostly sunny conditions by afternoon and very mild temps for
mid-January. Aftn highs should reach the mid 40s in most areas.

High pressure will be short-lived, with next frontal wave
passing to our west across sern Ontario during Thursday
morning. Anticipate overcast conditions redeveloping with light
to moderate rainfall overspreading the region Thursday AM
across nrn NY, and mainly during the aftn hours in VT. Continued
s-sw winds will keep lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s
in most areas, with highs in the mid 40s on Thursday. Rainfall
amts are expected to reach 0.30" in the Champlain Valley with
orographic shadowing in sw flow aloft, to 0.50-0.70" in the nrn
Adirondacks and across n-central/nern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 412 AM EST Wednesday...The surface front will be clearing
the North Country Thursday night into Friday morning thus the
precip will be coming to an end for most locations shortly after
midnight Thursday night. The flow behind the front will shift
from southerly to northwest and so we will keep some light
orographic snow but nothing significant. Expect above 1500 feet
to see a dusting with the summits picking up 1-2" inches of dry
snow. Temperatures will be the main story on Friday as we see
nearly a 20 degree drop from Thursday. Even so the upper 20s to
low 30s will still be above normal but cold air advection will
be ushering more normal conditions as broad and strong high
pressure system builds into the North Country. As the high
builds, our sensible weather turns quite with clearing skies.
Fortunately or unfortunately depending on your love of winter,
temps will crash Friday night into the single digits above and
below zero. It will be tricky to see how many sites actually get
below zero because with the warm up and rain expected on
Thursday a fair bit of snow is expected to melt. Its quite
difficult for us to see 0 or below 0 unless there's snow on the
ground even under strong radiational cooling. The forecast works
on the assumption that pretty much everywhere that will keep a
snow pack should see below zero temps while in locations such as
the Champlain Valley where snow is limited, temps should stay
in the single digits above zero.

The other concern is how much ice movement we get on the
rivers. I dont expect any significant hydro issues especially
due to the latest NOHRSC snow water equivalent maps depicting
2-4" of SWE in the higher terrain and generally less than an
inch of SWE in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys.
However, with the warmth and rain on Thursday there could be
some ice movement so we'll need to keep an eye on the gauges to
see if there ends up being any ice jams. Rule of thumb is that
we need water to rise by twice the ice thickness in order to
break up the ice and based on latest NERFC guidance thats
possible on a few of our rivers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 412 AM EST Wednesday...The huge high pressure will
dominate the weekend and based on the trends of the latest 00z
guidance, we could be looking at a fairly long period of quiet
weather around the North Country. The trends are showing the
high pressure being much slower to depart New England and
sitting just offshore well into Tuesday. So the changes to the
forecast at this point were to trend the chance for precip even
further down from what the day shift had yesterday. The next
best chance for precip appears to be by midweek as a low
pressure system begins to track up through the Great Lakes.
Similarly to most of this "winter" the low tracks north and west
of the North Country and we could be looking snow on late
Tuesday with a transition to wintry mix and or rain into
Wednesday. This far out there's not need to get cute so I left
it as a rain or snow forecast but it doesn't appear to be
anything significant.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06Z Thursday...A deepening low pressure area over the
western Great Lakes at 05z Wednesday will move northeast into
Canada overnight. Expecting any mixed precipitation to change
to mainly plain rain after 06Z Wednesday, as model guidance
showing surface temperatures rising above freezing overnight.
Expecting mainly MVFR conditions overnight. Expecting
precipitation to come to an end across the region between 10Z-
12Z Wednesday, as a mid level dry slot moves into the region.
South to southwest surface wind gusts are expected to be at or
above 20 knots through 00Z Thursday. Expecting some southerly
surface wind gusts up to around 40 knots through 11Z Wednesday.
Skies will become mainly clear across the region by 18Z
Wednesday. Expecting increasing mid and high clouds after 00Z
Thursday.

Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thu through 00Z Friday...becoming MVFR with intervals of
IFR in rain. HIR TRRN OBSCD.

00Z Friday through 00z Saturday...Trending VFR with cold front
moving through the area. May see scattered -SHSN with the
frontal passage Thursday night or early Friday morning.

00z Saturday onward...Primarily VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Anticipate sharp within bank rises Thursday through Friday
associated with rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 0.7" and higher
elevation snowmelt due to highs in the 40s Wed/Thu, and
overnight lows holding above freezing. While not significant by
itself, the additional potential for ice breakup may cause
localized ice jam flooding Thursday/Friday, and will be
something that will need to be monitored.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...Strong south winds will continue
across Lake Champlain, generally 25-35kt during the daylight
hours with early morning gusts in excess of 40kt. Waves will
remain 4-6 feet at least through the morning hours. Not much
improvement through Thursday, with strong pressure gradient
maintaining winds generally 20 to 30kt range tonight and
Thursday.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ026>028-031-
     087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...WGH/Nash
HYDROLOGY...Banacos
MARINE...Evenson

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July 2009, Week 1
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May 2009, Week 5
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May 2009, Week 1
April 2009, Week 5
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April 2009, Week 1
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March 2009, Week 3
March 2009, Week 2
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February 2009, Week 1
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July 2008, Week 1
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April 2008, Week 5
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March 2008, Week 1
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January 2008, Week 3
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October 2007, Week 1
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May 2007, Week 1
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