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SKIVT-L  January 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 18 Jan 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (246 lines)

Expires:201701182100;;683722
FPUS51 KBTV 180801
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
258 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017


VTZ006-182100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
258 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND
30. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. 

$$


Expires:201701181200;;692952
ASUS41 KBTV 181130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 18 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-181200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  34  32  92 S5        29.93R WCI  30          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  29  28  96 S7        29.99S FOG     WCI  22  
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  30  28  92 CALM      29.97S FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     30  29  96 MISG      29.97F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  28  25  88 E5        29.98S WCI  23          
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  35  21  56 S7        29.92F WCI  29          
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  33  30  88 SE20G30   29.92S WCI  21          
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  31  29  92 CALM      30.00S FOG              
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   32  31  96 CALM      29.93S                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  29  26  90 S7        29.97R WCI  22          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    36  29  75 SE6       29.91S WCI  31          
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     25 N/A N/A E8          N/A  WCI  16          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A SE17G30     N/A  WCI   4          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     34  32  93 S10         N/A  WCI  26          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  34  93 S21         N/A  WCI  24          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  34 100 SE8         N/A  WCI  27          

$$


Expires:No;;692783
FXUS61 KBTV 181128
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The wintry mix will taper off during the day today, with most 
precipitation limited to the mountains by tonight. Low pressure 
south of Long Island early this morning will move slowly eastward 
south of New England today. A ridge of high pressure will slowly 
build into the north country on Thursday and will remain over the 
region through this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 617 AM EST Wednesday...Forecast tracking along so far so
good. Will send updated grids/text products right at 12z to
expire the advisory. Otherwise precipitation continuing across
the forecast area. Mostly snow from northern Adirondacks into Lake
Champlain Valley eastward, with some rain in St. Lawrence County
and freezing rain at Massena in cold NE wind and 28 degree
surface temp. Boundar layer winds have turned westerly, and 
Froude number less than 0.5 based on local study indicate
blocked flow and snow to continue on western slopes of Green
Mountains for at least next several hours.

Snow winding down overnight, radar coverage has definitely 
changed from organized band of snow when the mid- shift started 
to more of a spotty coverage. Weak surface low moving up the St.
Lawrence Valley is starting to fizzle out as 500 mb shortwave 
trough reaches the coast and spins up surface low south of Long 
Island. Later today the forecast area will be under shortwave 
ridging from about 18z to 06z with little organized ascent and 
only orographic lift continuing precip chances. A second 500 mb 
shortwave trough will move across the region 06-12z Thursday to 
continue precip chances mainly in northern higher terrain.

Precip type: Temperatures a few degrees either side of 
freezing, although wetbulb effects making precip type mostly 
snow. Temperatures today will warm above freezing most 
everywhere, with wintry mix of sleet/snow/rain. Freezing rain 
and any significant icing less of a threat from here on out with
warming temperatures. Freezing drizzle a possibility mainly 
southern areas of the forecast area this afternoon through this 
evening as daytime heating cools off and thermal profile not 
conducive to ice crystals/snow growth. Further north thermal 
profile colder and more conducive to snow. Only trace amounts of
icing.

No airmass change with the passage of the low, and temperatures
will see little diurnal change from highs in the 30s and lows 
25 to 30. Saturated below about 700 mb and overcast skies for 
the duration of the near term period.

Although heaviest wintry precip has ended will continue
headlines for the time being as snow continues and will affect
the morning drive. Northern NY advisory expires 7 am and will 
evaluate with next update. Rest of the area will continue to 1 
pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Generally looking at improving 
conditions for the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some lingering
upslope light rain/snow showers focused over the high terrain 
diminishing Thursday, and strong 500mb ridging building in aloft
for Thursday night and Friday, offering dry conditions to end 
the work week. Even though strong subsidence will be shifting in
with the ridge, forecast soundings are indicating abundant 
moisture trapped beneath a low-level inversion holding tough 
through much of Friday and potentially longer into the weekend. 
Thus, have adjusted sky cover to indicate cloudier skies and 
subsequently lower temperatures slightly with highs both days in
the mid/upper 30s and lows Thursday night in the mid 20s to low
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 314 AM EST Wednesday...Aforementioned upper ridge and 
surface high pressure continue to dominate the North Country's 
weather going into the weekend with decaying shortwave energy 
shifting out of the central CONUS into the Ohio Valley falling 
apart as it hits the ridge and providing nothing more than some 
clouds. Subsidence aloft looks to finally win out over low level
moisture as well so looking at partly cloudy skies through the 
weekend along with above normal temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Next potential system looks to impact the region early next 
week as a shortwave trough pulling east out of the lee of the 
Rockies Saturday night develops a strong surface low over the 
southeast states Sunday, then tracks northeastward along the 
east coast during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Ptype could be 
an issue with this one with blocking high pressure in place over
Nova Scotia keeping low levels close to or below freezing, 
especially east of the Green Mountains Monday evening, but 
eventually a strong low/mid level jet pushes a warm front 
through the region Monday night transitioning precip to rain. At
least that's what the models are telling us now, but there's 
lots of time for things to change so stay tuned. For certain 
though, temperatures look to remain very mild by late- January 
standards with highs continuing to push into the 40s, and lows 
in the 20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 02Z Thursday...MVFR ceilings most locations except LIFR
KMSS. Low level moisture will remain locked in the area during
the TAF period and see little improvement in ceiling heights.
Mainly snow to continue over most of the area except KMSS where
northeast flow locks in upper 20s temperatures and light
freezing rain/mist. Precipitation to gradually come to an end
this afternoon when upper trough moves out of area.

Winds will be southerly at 5-10 knots for most of the area with
KRUT seeing some gusts around 20 knots. KMSS will be the lone
exception as northeasterly flow stays locked in though most of the
period with winds 05-15 knots. 

12Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR 
rain/snow showers.

00Z Friday through 00Z Monday...VFR, as a ridge of high pressure
will be over the region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
     VTZ006>012-017>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ029-
     087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for 
     NYZ028-030-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Hanson

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