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SKIVT-L  January 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 20 Jan 2017 06:50:02 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (238 lines)

Expires:201701202100;;795612
FPUS51 KBTV 201103
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017


VTZ006-202100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
600 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017

.TODAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR SLEET. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201701201200;;796796
ASUS41 KBTV 201130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 20 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-201200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    34  29  82 SE3       30.00R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    31  27  85 S3        30.00S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    31  28  89 CALM      30.00S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  31  96 MISG      29.96F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    30  26  85 CALM      29.98S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    32  28  85 CALM      29.99S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    31  30  96 CALM      29.98F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  29  88 CALM      30.00F                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    32  31  97 CALM      30.00S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    30  28  90 CALM      29.98S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  29  85 S5        29.97S WCI  29          
SUTTON*          N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     27 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     32  32 100 S1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     36  32  87 SE3         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     34  32  93 S1          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;795806
FXUS61 KBTV 201109
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
609 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather will persist across the region through the 
upcoming weekend with mainly cloudy skies and very mild 
temperatures. A more significant weather maker is looking more 
likely to affect the region Monday night into Tuesday with potential 
significant accumulations of snow or mixed precipitation. Behind 
this system continued mild temperatures with on and off chances of 
rain and snow shower activity are expected by the middle to later 
portions of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 609 AM EST Friday...Overall forecast remains in decent 
shape as of 600 am. Did tweak hourly temperatures and dewpoints 
and also made some adjustments to sky cover through the 
morning/afternoon, leaning more heavily toward WRFARW/WRFNMM 
output which is capturing current trends well. Again, sky cover 
and the degree to which we can achieve some spotty afternoon 
partial clearing will be the biggest near-term forecast 
challenge. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Quiet conditions continue today as pronounced and blocking 
upper ridge remains parked across the northeast. With lingering 
moisture trapped beneath a semi- permanent subsident inversion 
the timing and coverage of any partial clearing today will 
remain the biggest forecast challenge. Background flow does 
trend southerly over time however, and with the inversion 
weakening slightly the prior idea offering at least some breaks 
in the overcast still appears reasonable by afternoon in many 
spots. Time will tell though as we're still near the annual 
bottom in regard to weakness in insolation. As has been the case
over the past few days temperatures will remain remarkably 
steady, climbing only some 4 to 6 degrees from our overnight 
lows - generally from 35 to 41.

By tonight into Saturday we're still advertising a weakening impulse 
and associated spotty light precipitation to arrive from the 
southwest over time. Mid-level warm thermal advective processes are 
rather unimpressive and with the described weakening trend as system 
runs into our blocking ridge I expect rather scant, very light QPF 
at best across the area. Some minor concern that where surface 
temperatures do drop near or slightly below freezing some spotty 
very light -fzra and/or -fzdz will be possible. Indeed FRAM model 
output does show a light glaze of a few hundredths of an inch here 
and there across the SLV into portions of the Dacks and Vermont 
later tonight into the morning hours on Saturday. However, given the 
expected spotty, light QPF coverage will only mention in our 
Hazardous Weather Outlook at this point. As boundary layer 
temperatures warm by late morning on Saturday any threat of spotty 
light icing will end. With little airmass change very uniform 
temperatures will continue with overnight lows in the upper 20s to 
lower 30s (mid 20s northeast VT) and highs on Saturday in the upper 
30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...Model guidance showing plenty of low 
level moisture will be over the region Saturday night and Sunday
which will trapped below a low level temperature inversion, 
with a weak upper ridge over the region. Expecting mostly cloudy
skies for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Friday...GFS and ECMWF models showing a ridge 
of high pressure at the surface and aloft over the region Sunday
night, so have lowered superblend pops Sunday night and will 
keep the region dry Sunday night. Plenty of low level moisture 
still will be present over the region Sunday night, so expecting
skies to be cloudy Sunday night.

Models continue to show a prolonged period of unsettled weather
from Monday through Thursday. Models continue to show a surface
low over the mid Atlantic states on Monday, underneath a closed
upper low. Models bring this moisture slowly northward into the
region mainly Monday afternoon, as a ridge of high pressure at
the surface and aloft will be over the Canadian maritimes. This
moisture will spread northward by a negative upper trough closed
upper low over Pennsylvania late Monday night and Tuesday.
Models continue to hint at a mixed precipitation event from
Monday through Tuesday, with chances for rain, sleet and snow
across the region from Monday through Tuesday. Expecting
precipitation to wind down late Tuesday night, as an upper ridge
builds into the region. 

The region will see a brief break early Wednesday, before
another system approaches from the Great Lakes by late Wednesday
bring more chances for rain or snow across the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures expected to remain above normal in the long term
portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday through Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR cigs and light winds 
generally expected over the next 24 hours though some partial 
clearing in the 18Z-06Z time frame will be possible. Difficulty
lies in degree to which synoptic inversion and trapped moisture
can thin over time. Confidence only modest that partial 
clearing will occur at any given terminal. After 06Z weakening 
system approaching from the southwest may spark a spotty light 
shower or spotty light freezing rain where surface temperatures 
are near freezing. Coverage of pcpn quite scant so have omitted 
discrete mention at this point.

Outlook 12Z Saturday through Tuesday...Areal coverage and cigs 
heights associated with plenty of low level moisture continues 
to be the aviation focus for Friday night into Saturday. A few 
sprinkles or flurries possible Saturday with general mvfr 
mountains to vfr valleys. Next system spreads a wintry mix 
across our taf sites late Monday into Tuesday with widespread 
mvfr to ifr conditions likely...along with breezy southeast 
downslope winds possible at Rutland.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...JMG/KGM

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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October 2007, Week 5
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