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SKIVT-L  January 2017, Week 3

SKIVT-L January 2017, Week 3

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 16 Jan 2017 06:50:04 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (220 lines)

Expires:201701162100;;586449
FPUS51 KBTV 161053
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
550 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017


VTZ006-162100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
550 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 40. 

$$


Expires:201701161200;;588135
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     15   9  76 CALM      30.36F                  
MONTPELIER     CLEAR      5   4  95 CALM      30.35S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY     5   1  83 CALM      30.34F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      5   2  87 MISG      30.36S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       1  -2  88 N5        30.32F WCI  -9          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      11   4  71 CALM      30.36S                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     11   6  81 SE6       30.38R WCI   1          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR      7   2  80 CALM      30.41R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    18  10  72 S9        30.34F WCI   7          
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    10   5  80 SW6       30.32R WCI   0          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     12   7  80 CALM      30.38S                  
SUTTON*          N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -8 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -4 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     10 N/A N/A SW30        N/A  WCI -12          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  16  79 S15         N/A  WCI   8          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  19  80 S23         N/A  WCI  10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     19  14  79 S10         N/A  WCI   8          

$$


Expires:No;;587867
FXUS61 KBTV 161125
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
625 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected today with high pressure over the
region. A warming trend will also take place beginning today and
continuing through midweek with above normal temperatures
expected. However...attention will turn to the late Tuesday into
early Wednesday time period when mixed precipitation makes its
way up into the region. The precipitation will generally begin
as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain in northern
New York with colder air holding in longer over Vermont for a
bit more snow and sleet before going to rain on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 551 AM EST Monday...Going forecast in good shape. Only 
tweak was to temperatures and sky given the sharp difference 
across the area with clouds and warmer temperatures west and 
relatively clear skies with colder temperatures east. 
Otherwise...with high pressure over the area quiet weather is 
expected today and tonight. A warm trend will also take place 
with highs today in the upper 20s to mid 30s. And it will not be
getting as cold tonight as the past few night with lows in the 
mid teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 328 AM EST Monday...Active weather is expected during 
this period...especially late in the day Tuesday through the 
morning hours on Wednesday. It will be yet again another mixed 
precipitation event. Highs on Tuesday will actually get into the
30s to around 40 in advance of the precipitation. But with dry 
air in place wet bulbing will take place and the thermal profile
will change significantly with low level cooling and warming 
aloft. At this time its looking like light snow at the onset and
then as warmer air aloft moves into northern New York Tuesday 
night they will have the best chance of seeing sleet and some 
freezing rain that could result in some light ice accumulations.
Secondary low wants to form along the coast Tuesday night and 
this will keep colder air in over the Champlain Valley and 
points east. Thus the thermal profile Tuesday night would 
support the idea of a bit more snow and sleet with some rain 
getting into the Champlain Valley. Freezing rain threat looks 
low in Vermont...but with more snow and sleet...better snow 
accumulations could result. From Tuesday night through Wednesday
areas from the Green Mountains eastward could see snow and 
sleet amounts in the 2 to 5 inch range with around an inch in 
the Champlain Valley before changing to rain. Either way another
messy situation is expected before temperatures warm enough for
rain everywhere on Wednesday. Precipitation should also be 
exiting the region as temperatures warm well into the 30s 
Wednesday afternoon. Only other concern will be strong winds 
moving in late Tuesday...especially in the Champlain Valley that
could cause some shadowing effects and limit precipitation. 

No headlines at this time...but situation for Tuesday night into
Wednesday will be closely monitored given the mixed
precipitation event.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Monday...The middle to later portions of the 
week will generally feature high pressure with very mild 
temperatures, variable clouds and mainly dry weather. This idea 
is broadly supported by a variety of global ensemble guidance so
forecast confidence remains above average. A weak upper trough 
passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning will bring the best 
shot at scattered snow/rain showers during the period, otherwise
minimal pops will be offered through Sunday. Mean 925 mb 
temperatures generally average from -1 to -3C through Saturday, 
then climb slightly by Sunday. Adding a customary +7C to these 
values for January yields max temps from the mid 30s to lower 
40s through the 4 day period with overnight lows in the 20s to 
around 30 in milder valley locales. Of course, any radiative 
effects that do develop during overnight periods of partial 
clearing could yield higher variability in the overnight lows 
than currently shown, but this is not an uncommon occurrence. 
Regardless, daily mean departures should average some +8 to +15 
deg above normal for this time of year continuing the larger 
background trend throughout the winter so far.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday through Friday/... 
Through 12Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR through the period with high
pressure. Brief period of BKN/OVC MVFR cigs in the 018-028 AGL
range expected at KSLK and in the 035-045 AGL range at KMSS
through 15Z. Otherwise mainly SKC/SCT conds. expected. Winds
trending south to southwesterly and occasionally gusty to 20
knots at KBTV/KPBG/KSLK/KMSS this afternoon. After 00Z winds
abate to light with VFR continuing.

12Z Tuesday - 18Z Tuesday...VFR with surface high pressure
 
18Z Tuesday - 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in periods of light snow,
mixed pcpn and/or light rain depending on location.

00Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR with brief MVFR/IFR
rain/snow shower activity.

00Z Friday onward...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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