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SKIVT-L  March 2017, Week 1

SKIVT-L March 2017, Week 1

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 6 Mar 2017 06:50:01 -0500

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (241 lines)

Expires:201703062100;;730967
FPUS51 KBTV 061129
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
626 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017


VTZ006-062100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
626 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers or sleet until
midnight...then a chance of sleet or freezing rain after midnight.
Lows in the mid 20s. Light and variable winds...becoming south
around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain showers and freezing rain in the
morning...then rain showers in the afternoon. Ice accumulation
around a trace. Highs in the mid 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the upper 30s. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the lower 30s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows 15 to 20. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 20s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 5 above. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 20. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 5 to 10 above. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. 

$$


Expires:201703061200;;731041
ASUS41 KBTV 061130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON MAR 06 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY     8   1  73 CALM      30.53S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     0  -2  91 CALM      30.51S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY     0  -5  79 CALM      30.54R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      0  -5  79 MISG      30.53R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -4  -8  84 CALM      30.50R                  
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A      4  -8  56 CALM      30.52S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     5  -4  66 SE9       30.51S WCI  -9          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY     4  -3  73 CALM      30.52S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      10   5  80 E5        30.53F WCI   1          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -1  -5  84 SW5       30.51S WCI -11          
BENNINGTON     CLEAR      5   0  79 CALM      30.49R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     16 N/A N/A NW2         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     18   7  62 S7          N/A  WCI   8          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     18  12  79 SE9         N/A  WCI   6          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     16  10  79 SE7         N/A  WCI   6          

$$


Expires:No;;731308
FXUS61 KBTV 061137
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
637 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide to the New England coast today and offshore 
tonight into mid-week allowing much milder air to stream into the 
region. A few light showers or a period of light mixed precipitation 
is possible across mainly northern counties overnight. However, 
steadier more widespread rain showers are expected on Tuesday into 
Tuesday night as a frontal system crosses the area. Behind this 
front a gradual cool down is expected by  later in the work week 
with mainly dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 637 AM EST Monday...Minor adjustments to hourly trends in
sky and temperatures over the next 2-4 hours to match current 
observational trends. Otherwise the current forecast remains in 
good shape. Have a great day.

Prior discussion...
Quiet weather on tap for today as high pressure slides to the 
New England coast with light southerly flow developing and 
continued dry weather. Increasing warm thermal advection will 
allow temperatures to rebound nicely from our recent cold snap 
with afternoon maxes ranging from the mid to upper 30s east and 
upper 30s to lower 40s from the Champlain Valley west. Warm 
thermal/moisture advection aloft will also foster thickening mid
to high clouds through the morning across northern New York, 
and afternoon into Vermont.

By tonight moisture continues to increase well in advance of a 
surface occluded front advancing east from the Great Lakes/Ohio 
Valley. Increasing evidence that scattered, light precipitation may 
develop across central/northern counties in modest mid-level 
isentropic lift overnight despite rather weak dynamical upper 
support and quite dry lower levels. Used a blend of global and 
higher-res output for QPF and a top-down methodology to drive p-type 
edging closer to GFS thermal profiles. This would suggest at 
least some light freezing rain/sleet potential on the order of a few 
hundredths across the eastern Adirondacks and east 
central/northeastern VT with any precipitation in the St 
Lawrence/Champlain Valleys mainly spotty and negligible at best.
Mainly dry south. Again, emphasis here is on the spotty and 
light nature of the precipitation and given this expectation 
will hold off on issuing any advisories at this point. Overnight
low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 20s east and 
lower 30s from the Champlain Valley west where readings will 
tend to trend steady or slowly rise after midnight as southerly 
flow increases.

By Tuesday southerly flow continues to increase ahead of advancing 
occluded boundary and will trend modestly gusty from the Champlain 
Valley west. Champlain Valley low level jet development is 
also expected with localized gusts to 40 mph possible from Addison 
County northward. Chances for showers will continue to increase 
through the day with any light mixed precipitation across 
northeastern counties ending by mid-morning at the latest. Highs
should range from the lower to mid 40s across eastern VT and 
upper 40s to lower 50s from the Champlain Valley west. Yes, 
another in a series of roller coaster rides in temperature, not 
unusual as we progress through March and toward the vernal 
equinox.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...Cold front will push across our
forecast area Tuesday night. Have mentioned categorical rain
showers. Temperatures will be mild with clouds and precipitation
overnight, then stronger cold air advection later in the day on
Wednesday. Light rain showers will continue into the morning 
hours on Wednesday and end during the afternoon. Maximum
temperatures will be achieved early in the day with cooling
temperatures through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...More light snow showers are expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as upper level trof crosses the 
area along with vorticity advection. Thursday night through 
Saturday will feature drier weather. A low pressure system
passes through the Ohio river valley Saturday night into Sunday,
but precipitation should stay south of our forecast area. From
Friday onward we will have below normal temperatures through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday through Friday/... 
Through 12Z Tuesday...Variable mid to high cloud cover to 
slowly thicken and spread east over time today, becoming mainly 
Skies BKN/OVC in the 040-070 AGL range at all terminals after 
00Z. Spotty light showers and/or mixed precipitation possible 
overnight, though confidence low on eventual coverage. Have only
mentioned VCSH at most terminals overnight with a brief period 
of -RAPL at KMSS. Winds light through 18Z, trending southerly 5 
to 10 knots thereafter except at KMSS where northeasterly flow 
from 5-10 kts will persist through most of the period. After 06Z
low level jet development likely at Champlain Valley terminals 
of KBTV/KPBG where enhanced gusts to 20 kts and low level 
turbulence will be possible.

Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday...

12Z Tuesday through 12Z Wednesday...Scattered/numerous rain 
showers and a mix of VFR/MVFR as cold front approaches and 
passes through the region.

12Z Wednesday through 00Z Friday...Scattered rain/snow showers 
transition to scattered snow showers over time as colder air 
filters into the region with secondary frontal passage.

00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...mainly VFR/high pressure.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 637 AM EST Monday...The KTYX 88D doppler radar in 
northern New York remains down at this time. Electronics 
technicians have determined that the problem is with a bad wave 
guide switch. The electronics technicians have ordered a new 
wave guide switch to repair the radar. Thus, the KTYX radar will
likely be down at least through early this week.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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July 2007, Week 1
June 2007, Week 5
June 2007, Week 4
June 2007, Week 3
June 2007, Week 2
June 2007, Week 1
May 2007, Week 5
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May 2007, Week 1
April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 2
April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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March 2007, Week 3
March 2007, Week 2
March 2007, Week 1
February 2007, Week 4
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February 2007, Week 1
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January 2007, Week 3
January 2007, Week 2
January 2007, Week 1
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December 2006, Week 2
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October 2006, Week 5
October 2006, Week 4
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October 2006, Week 1
September 2006, Week 5
September 2006, Week 4
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August 2006, Week 5
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July 2006, Week 3
July 2006, Week 2
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May 2006, Week 5
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October 2005, Week 3
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October 2005, Week 1
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June 2005, Week 2
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May 2005, Week 3
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April 2005, Week 4
April 2005, Week 3
April 2005, Week 2
April 2005, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
March 2005, Week 3
March 2005, Week 2
March 2005, Week 1
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March 2004, Week 2
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November 2002, Week 1
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October 2002, Week 3
October 2002, Week 2
October 2002, Week 1
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September 2002, Week 3
September 2002, Week 2
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August 2002, Week 3
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August 2002, Week 1
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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