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SKIVT-L  March 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Tue, 28 Mar 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (248 lines)

Expires:201703282000;;197606
FPUS51 KBTV 280726
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
324 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs in the mid 40s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers. Lows around
30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Scattered
rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest
winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Lows
in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds
around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. Highs around
40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance
of precipitation 60 percent.
.SATURDAY...A chance of rain showers or snow likely. Highs in the
lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows in
the mid 20s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.

$$


Expires:201703281100;;205113
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 38 36 92 CALM 29.90S
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 32 31 96 CALM 29.93S FOG
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 35 34 96 MISG 29.93F
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 33 33 99 CALM 29.95S VSB 1/4
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 38 37 99 CALM 29.90F FOG
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 37 36 93 SE7 29.92F
SPRINGFIELD FOG 33 32 96 CALM 29.97R VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 40 40 97 S5 29.88S
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 35 34 96 S7 29.92S WCI 29
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 37 97 S3 29.93R
SUTTON* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A NE1 N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 39 N/A N/A SW23 N/A WCI 29

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 37 37 100 SW13 N/A WCI 29
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 37 37 100 S16 N/A WCI 28
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 39 39 100 SW8 N/A

$$


Expires:No;;199318
FXUS61 KBTV 280806
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
406 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking eastward across central Quebec this
morning will push a cold front through the North Country this
afternoon with scattered showers developing from mid-day through
this evening. Behind the front, some scattered snow showers are
expected tonight into Wednesday, with drier conditions on
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
Unsettled weather returns for the end of the week and into the
weekend though, as another storm system will bring valley rain
and mountain snow to the area Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 406 AM EDT Tuesday...Little overall change from previous
forecast thinking as the North Country will be in between mid-
level troughs today, one to our south and another to our north.
Northern trough and associated surface low will sag southward
through the day dragging a cold front into the forecast area
this afternoon and tonight. Abundant low level moisture
currently over the area combined with some additional moisture
from the southern stream system and frontal lift will aid in
developing scattered rain showers across the region today.
Precip will come in 2 waves with the first round shifting from
the St. Lawrence Valley this morning into northern portions of
New York and the northern Champlain Valley before additional
showers develop across more of the forecast area this afternoon
and evening. Based on current upstream radar and modeled
reflectivity expect showers to be scattered in nature and hit or
miss in any one single location. Temps will continue to run
mild with highs ranging through the 40s with a couple of spot
50s possible.

For tonight, aforementioned cold front slips through the region
with and lingering precipitation transitioning from rain to snow
showers, especially across the higher terrain. Modeled Froude
numbers show increasing blocked flow overnight with winds
shifting to the northwest and this combined with the parent
upper trough and weak shortwave energy passing through supports
some locally enhanced precipitation across the western slopes of
the Greens backing up all the way into the northern Champlain
Valley late tonight into early Wednesday, before becoming
unblocked by Wednesday afternoon. Ptype will be all snow by this
time with low temps tonight around freezing, so some light
accumulations are possible, perhaps up to an inch in the lower
elevations and a couple inches over the high peaks. Temps rise
Wednesday afternoon into the mid 30s to low 40s so any precip
leftover by that time will transition back to a rain/snow mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday....The upper trough and attendant
backside energy then depart east on Wednesday night with broad,
albeit short-lived ridging at lower and mid levels building
across the area later at night into Thursday. As such, any
northern mountain snow showers/flurries will gradually end
Wednesday night setting the stage for a partly to mostly sunny
day on Thursday. Low temperatures a bit tricky and will be
dependent on amount of clearing or lack thereof, but generally
stuck with blended guidance showing values in the 20s to locally
near 30 in the Champlain Valley and slightly cooler in northern
NY where clearing probabilities are higher. Thursday highs from
the upper 30s to mid 40s still look on track as advertised by
prior forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...By Thursday night mainly clear skies
gradually give way to increasing mid and higher level clouds as
first signs of next system arrive on warm thermal advection
rippling in aloft. There will be increasing chances of light
snows across our far southwestern counties toward morning, but
uncertainty on arrival time of precipitation puts low confidence
on any potential minor accumulations in these areas through
sunrise Friday. Lows mainly in the 20s.

By Friday into Friday night, deeper moisture will ride northeast
into our area on increasing warm thermal advection and a fairly
robust southwesterly 850 mb jet as low pressure tracks northeast
from the Ohio Valley. Thus will continue the idea of widespread
precipitation arriving southwest to northeast over time into Friday
evening as highs top out from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending
on arrival time, some of the morning precipitation may fall in the
form of wet snow across the southwestern half of the forecast area
before a transition to all rain below 1500 feet by late
morning/early afternoon. Any accumulations should be minor to
negligible. Higher up, precipitation may fall as a mix of rain/snow
or even all snow for elevations above 2500 feet given wet bulbing
processes and 850 mb temperatures hovering around the 0C mark give
or take a degree or two. Several inches of wet snow will be possible
in these higher elevation areas, especially by Friday night as
thermal profiles cool slightly and snow levels lower accordingly. A
mix with wet snow may even occur to the Champlain/St. Lawrence
Valley floors for a brief while Friday night, but little if any
accumulation is expected.

Looking further out, a general trend toward quiet weather is
expected on Saturday as scattered rain/snow shower activity
gradually tapers off and sets the stage for a mainly dry
Sunday/Monday. Temperatures will remain close to seasonal early
April norms with highs ranging through the 40s and overnight lows in
the 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR to VLIFR will continue
through the overnight hours and into the morning hours before a
slight lift to MVFR/IFR through the remainder of the period.
Some scattered rain showers are likely from mid-morning through
the evening as a cold front shifts into the region with brief
reductions in vsby. Light winds shift to the northwest at
5-10 knots behind the front after 18Z across northern New York
and after 21Z across Vermont.

Outlook 06Z Wednesday through Saturday...

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in scattered scattered
rain/snow showers, mainly across central/northern Vermont.

00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR. Isolated snow
showers over higher terrain.

12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...VFR under high pressure.

12Z Friday through 00Z Sunday...Areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and
snow.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Lahiff

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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