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SKIVT-L  March 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L March 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Wed, 22 Mar 2017 06:50:01 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (259 lines)

Expires:201703222000;;897705
FPUS51 KBTV 221044
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
642 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
642 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely this morning...then
partly sunny with a slight chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Total snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Brisk with Highs
around 15. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers until
midnight...then clear after midnight. Lows around 4 above. Northwest
winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow
20 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Southwest winds
around 10 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Snow and sleet likely. Light snow accumulation possible.
Highs in the mid 30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow, sleet likely with a chance of rain. Little or
no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the upper
30s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 10 above. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows
in the lower 20s. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows
in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201703221100;;897151
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    20  10  65 NW29G36   30.00R WCI   1          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  17  12  80 NW16G29   29.92R WCI   2          
MORRISVILLE    LGT SNOW  14   9  80 NW10G26   29.95R WCI   1          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     23  18  81 MISG      29.82R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  19  11  72 W15G24    29.84R WCI   5          
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    21   9  57 N18G29    29.96R WCI   7          
RUTLAND*       FLURRIES  26  19  74 NW16G29   29.87R WCI  14          
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    32  23  69 NW8G22    29.81R WCI  25          
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  15  12  86 NW13G23   30.02R WCI   1          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  16  12  84 N13G24    29.90R WCI   2          
BENNINGTON     LGT SNOW  30  21  69 NW12G18   29.87R WCI  20          
SUTTON*          N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     18 N/A N/A NW15        N/A  WCI   3          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A N38         N/A  WCI -26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     19  14  79 NW25G31     N/A  WCI   2          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  12  63 NW32G40     N/A  WCI   5          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25   9  50 NW18G29     N/A  WCI  11          

$$


Expires:No;;892091
FXUS61 KBTV 220826
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
426 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic cold front moving across Vermont and New York during 
the pre- dawn hours will usher in much colder air today with 
strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Flurries will end this 
morning, with a few icy spots possible on roadways. Afternoon 
temperatures will generally range from the upper teens to lower 
20s. High pressure in place for Thursday will result in lighter
winds and moderating temperatures. A warm front will arrive on 
Friday with increasing clouds and mixed wintry precipitation
across the North Country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 159 AM EDT Wednesday...Arctic cold front is passing thru 
BTV at 06Z with ongoing snow showers and localized snow 
squalls. Winds in the wake of the front are gusting 25-33kts
(including 32kt at BTV), and strong low-level CAA will maintain
good low-level mixing and gusty winds to 30kts from the NW 
throughout most of the day. It appears we'll remain below wind 
advisory criteria, but will still be a rather brisk day for late
March with wind chills zero to 10 below in many spots this 
afternoon. Main concern early this morning is for some icy spots
on roads with "flash freeze" situation as temperatures rapidly 
fall below freezing during the pre-dawn period, with snow 
initially melting on relatively warm paved surfaces. We'll 
handle with a Special Weather Statement as we get closer to the 
morning commute time frame to highlight for the traveling public.
Temp at 06Z still 36F at BTV but already down to 23F upstream 
at MSS...and 850mb temps fall to -21C to -23C across our 
forecast area by 18Z this afternoon. Thus, will see rapidly 
falling temps through the morning and not much recovery this 
afternoon. 

Will continue to see some mountain flurries with upslope flow
conditions, but gradual drying will occur with decreasing clouds
from NW-SE away from the summits during the daylight hrs. 
Should see mostly sunny conditions for the afternoon hrs, except
partly sunny across far n-central into nern VT with orographic 
effects.

Strong surface anticyclone (1038mb) begins to move in from the
Great Lakes region tonight and Thursday, bringing diminishing
winds and mostly clear skies. Lows tonight generally in the
single digits above zero, except in the lower teens in the vcnty
of Lake Champlain. Some modest recovery on temps tomorrow aided
by relatively high late March sun angle, with highs upr 20s to
lower 30s and lighter nw winds 5-10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday....Thursday night will remain quiet
with strong sfc ridge shifting eastward into the Gulf of Maine.
Will see developing south-southwest winds and increasing mid-
upper level clouds combine to mitigate radiational cooling a
bit. Should see lows in the lower 20s in the immediate vicinity
of Lake Champlain, and mainly in the teens elsewhere. Most of
the temperature drop will occur during the first half of the
night before leveling off with thickening clouds from SW-NE. 

A more active weather pattern develops starting on Friday, as a
warm front moves into the region from the SW. It appears snow
will develop Friday morning, before changing to a mix of sleet
and rain during the afternoon and evening hrs. Could see some
impacts to travel in spots, mainly away from the Champlain
Valley as moderately strong S-SW winds (15-25 mph, gusts 35mph)
allow temperatures to climb through the 30s by Friday afternoon.
Could see a minimal accumulation of snow/sleet in the Champlain
Valley, with 1-3" across the nrn Adirondacks and central/ern
VT...where subfreezing air will likely hold on a bit longer.
Have started a mention in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. 

It appears initial surge of low-level WAA and associated 700mb
shortwave trough will slide to our east Friday night. At the
same time, the GFS/ECMWF have been trending toward a stronger
sfc ridge to our north across Ontario and wrn Quebec. It's
likely that the sfc front will stall with an east-west
orientation in vcnty of nrn NY/VT Friday night, with abundant
low clouds and possible light rain/drizzle. It's possible that
the front may settle south a bit if there is a shallow push of 
colder air from srn Quebec. That could have an impact on
precipitation type later Friday night, though again, any precip
during this time frame is expected to be light. Have shown lows
in the upr 20s to lower 30s for now, and will continue to
monitor model trends with regard to positional of the quasi-
stationary front. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Greater than average run-to-run 
model variance during the long-term period. Anticipate a W-E 
quasi- stationary front across the North Country Saturday 
morning, with latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF suggesting a shallow push of 
colder air/north winds associated with strong anticyclone to our
north. This should result in the frontal zone sagging to the 
south during the day Saturday into Saturday night. If those 
trends hold, should see diminishing chances for precipitation, 
and even some partial clearing across nrn areas with drier air 
moving in from the N-NE. Attm, showing just 20-30 PoPs across 
the Adirondacks into s-central VT for possible -RW/-SW on 
Saturday. Highs on Saturday expected in the mid-upr 30s north, 
but possibly low-mid 40s south depending on exact trends with 
the frontal boundary. 

Strong surface high pressure across central Quebec should keep 
us relatively dry Saturday night thru the first half of Sunday. 
Next shortwave trough in the Ohio Valley may result in the next 
surge of low- level WAA and isentropic lift as winds turn S-SW 
across our area later Sunday into Monday. If bndry retreats nwd
as a warm front, may again see a period of mixed wintry 
precipitation, with snow/sleet trending toward mainly rain for 
the daylight hrs Monday. Again, greater than normal degree of 
variance in the 00z NWP model suite, so we will continue to 
monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A strong arctic cold front will pass
through the region early this morning bringing 1-2SM -SHSN thru
08Z, and NWLY wind gusts of 28-32kts. Improving back to VFR 
with gradual clearing during the daylight hrs, but will continue
to see gusts 25-30kts from the NW thru sunset today before 
gradually diminishing tonight. HIR TRRN will remain OBSCD thru 
11-12Z this morning. 

00Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday - VFR/high pressure.

12Z Friday through Sunday - VFR/MVFR/IFR in mixed wintry
precipitation.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Banacos/Deal
LONG TERM...Banacos/Deal
AVIATION...Banacos

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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June 2007, Week 2
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May 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 5
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April 2007, Week 1
March 2007, Week 5
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September 2006, Week 5
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March 2005, Week 4
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October 2004, Week 1
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April 2004, Week 3
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March 2002, Week 3
March 2002, Week 2
March 2002, Week 1
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February 2002, Week 3
February 2002, Week 2
February 2002, Week 1
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