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SKIVT-L  April 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L April 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Fri, 28 Apr 2017 06:50:02 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (267 lines)

Expires:201704282000;;384133
FPUS51 KBTV 280738
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017


VTZ006-282000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
335 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.TODAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers this morning. Highs in
the lower 70s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear until midnight,...then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around 10 mph until
midnight, becoming light and variable. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning,...then becoming partly
sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming west 15 to 20 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph in the afternoon. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Light and variable
winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Occasional showers. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 80 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. 

$$


Expires:201704281100;;391604
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI APR 28 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    64  59  83 S10       29.84R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  59  58  96 VRB3      29.92R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    59  55  87 S5        29.86R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     61  57  87 MISG      29.86R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    58  56  91 CALM      29.91R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    62  58  86 SW5       29.88                   
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    60  57  89 VRB3      29.89R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    59  55  87 S6        29.91R                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   61  59  93 SW3       29.83R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    59  56  89 S5        29.86S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    60  57  89 CALM      29.88S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     61 N/A N/A SW2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     52 N/A N/A W24         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     52  50  93 SW10        N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  55 100 SW13        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  57  88 S8          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;385781
FXUS61 KBTV 280814
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After a band of rain showers moves across the North Country 
this morning, drier air will return for the rest of the day. 
Temperatures will remain mild for Friday into Saturday...before 
another cold front produces another chance for showers and 
cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon into Sunday. A closed low
pressure system will bring more chances for rain for the 
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 414 AM EDT Friday...Line of showers...heavy at times is 
moving across northern NY and will continue to progress eastward
into the Champlain Valley in the next couple hours...reaching 
central Vermont before 12Z. Expect the line to weaken as it 
progresses into eastern Vermont but still provide a chance for 
light rain before exiting the NEK between 15Z-18Z. BUFKIT models
show low level inversion behind the front may take some time to
erode, keeping clouds over portions of the area through late 
morning/early afternoon. Eventually drier airmass filters in 
with sfc dewpoints in the 30s. At mid levels, a dry slot 
develops along with weak ridge of high pressure under 
west/southwest flow aloft. Some gusty winds still possible 
across the SLV this afternoon as mixing increases and inversion 
breaks...tapping into SW winds of 20-30kts at 925mb. Max 
temperatures today will range from the 60s to mid 70s in the 
Champlain and CT valleys.

Clouds will increase tonight as moisture aloft arrives on the 
persistent SW flow. This will be followed by a chance for rain 
showers early Saturday morning. Models do not agree much on 
placement of rain showers as more zonal flow keeps boundary 
moving and less defined. GFS and NAM lacking low level 
deformation with NAM taking a further south track of boundary 
and associated precip. Therefore kept only chance POPs. Expect 
cloudier skies to keep mins in the mid 40s to low 50s and max 
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...some differences have cropped up
amongst the 00z suite of models with regard to the
strength/depth of cold air that comes in from the north Saturday
night behind the cold front, and then the resulting speed of 
warming later on Sunday as that front lifts back north as a warm
front. In addition, differences exist with how much precip will
fall (and exactly where) associated with overrunning with the
warm front. In a nutshell, the NAM is 10-15 degrees colder than
the GFS for Sunday's temperatures. The NAM also has a batch of
rain come across late Saturday night/early Sunday morning
associated with the initial warm air advection push. Up to now,
we've been advertising dry weather for that period. The GFS
indicates increasing clouds, but is dry. Don't think the NAM is
right about the precip, but I think it's on to something with
colder temperatures on Sunday given it's slightly better near
surface vertical resolution and support from the ECMWF for
cooler temperatures. With plenty of clouds and shallow low level
northerly winds continuing to advect cool temperatures for at
least half the day, it makes sense to go cooler. I dropped
temperatures from the previous forecast about 6 to 8 degrees,
but that might not be enough. Needless to say, not very high
confidence.

More consensus for areas of showers or just a steady rain to 
develop across northern areas Sunday night in association with 
the warm front setting up just north of the border along with 
strong isentropic lift thanks to strengthening low/mid level
southwest winds. NAM and ECMWF are fairly robust on rainfall
amounts along the border Sunday night, on the order of 1" by
early Monday morning. GFS is much much less. At this point,
thinking 0.30-0.45" along the Int'l border by 12z Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...00z suite of models is still in pretty
good overall agreement with the scenario for early to mid week.
Thus stuck with the model blend, which isn't much different than
what we had in the forecast. Going day by day...

Monday: we should be in the warm sector, with the warm front
just to our north. However close enough that we'll have plenty
of clouds and showers around. Some instability sneaks in across
northern NY by the afternoon, so isolated t-storm is not out of
the question. Pretty strong pressure gradient sets up, so breezy
southerly winds (especially in the Champlain Valley) are
expected. Monday night a surface trough will move through the
region, accompanied by a band of showers. Decent moisture tap,
so some briefly heavy downpours are possible. A bit of
instability as well, so a rumble or two of thunder is not out of
the question. Does move through quickly, so I don't think we are
looking at any significant hydro concerns, but still enough to
monitor as we go through the weekend. 

Tuesday/Wednesday: Longwave trough settles across the region,
with deep west/northwest flow and low level moisture about.
Means plenty of clouds, scattered showers and a bit breezy at
times. Cooler air filters in slowly later Tuesday and Wednesday,
so Tuesday should be above normal for highs, but closer to or
slightly below for Tuesday.  

Thursday: Weak ridging tries to develop, so lesser threat of any
showers, but still expect a good amount of clouds. Unfortunately
another developing storm system will be moving toward the region
from the south later in the day. So even if we have any
sunshine, clouds will win out by later in the day. Though beyond
the period for the forecast, Friday could feature a good amount
of rain and perhaps some wind. GFS and ECMWF begin to
significantly diverge at that point, so way more questions than
actual answers. It's still a week away, so nothing to worry
about right now.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Band of showers...with isolated TS...on 
KMSS doorstep with MVFR conditions and gusty winds expected. 
This line will move eastward across the North Country this 
morning. VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR conditions as 
the line moves over terminals. Expect MVFR conditions and SHRA 
at KMSS/KSLK mainly between 06Z-09Z...KPBG and KBTV mainly 
between 08z-11z. KMPV and KRUT in lighter wind flow and 
experiencing MVFR cigs already...which is expected to persist 
into the late morning. 

South to southwesterly winds will channel up the St Lawrence 
and Champlain Valleys, continuing gusts up to 30kts possible 
through at least sunrise. VFR conditions return to all terminals
during the morning as dry slot moves into the area. Winds 
generally out of the SW will eventually decrease to 5-10kts in 
the late afternoon into evening hours.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...KGM

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July 2008, Week 1
June 2008, Week 5
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May 2008, Week 5
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April 2008, Week 5
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November 2007, Week 1
October 2007, Week 5
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January 2007, Week 3
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January 2007, Week 1
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March 2005, Week 4
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February 2002, Week 1
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