Expires:201705012000;;546318
FPUS51 KBTV 010722
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
319 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017


VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
319 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy. Showers likely, mainly this morning. Highs in the
mid 60s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph this
afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Occasional showers. Windy with lows around 50. Southeast
winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 65 mph, becoming south 15 to
20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
around 10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows
in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Showers. Highs in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the upper 50s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 

$$


Expires:201705011100;;554296
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAY 01 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    50  47  89 S15G23    29.89F                  
MONTPELIER     RAIN      44  43  96 S9        30.00F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  45  43  93 S6        29.94F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     43  41  93 MISG      29.98F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  41  40  94 SE8       29.99F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    50  46  86 SW3       29.94F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    48  42  80 SE12      29.97F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    46  38  73 S10       30.03F                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      46  46 100 CALM      29.90S                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      43  41  95 S9        29.95F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    50  44  80 W3        29.97F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     41 N/A N/A NE3         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     50 N/A N/A SW26        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  46  93 S18         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  43  93 S28         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  46  93 S18         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;549399
FXUS61 KBTV 010832
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
432 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifting across the North Country will produce 
occasional showers, especially near the International Border this 
morning. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected 
this evening with brief heavy rainfall and localized gusty winds. A 
few stronger to isolated severe storms are possible over northern 
New York this evening. A wide range in temperatures are expected 
from the upper 50s to upper 70s depending upon location today...with 
cooler air and additional showers for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...A line of convective showers with embedded 
thunderstorms expected this evening with isolated severe 
possible...especially southern Saint Lawrence Valley into 
western Dacks. The primary threat would be localized damaging 
wind gusts to 60 mph. Latest SPC day 1 has expanded slight risk 
for entire cwa...but thinking best combination of instability 
and shear for severe threat will be across our western cwa btwn 
22z and 03z this evening.

Water vapor shows deep closed cyclonic circulation across the MS 
Valley with ribbon of mid level moisture advection around periphery 
of mid/upper level ridge of the se conus. Strong low to mid level 
waa continues associated with 925mb to 850mb winds of 40 to 50 
knots...while terrain influenced surface warm front is draped across 
the SLV into central/eastern VT. This will continue to slowly lift 
north today...with northeast winds keeps low clouds and cool 
temperatures locked in across the slv...with southeast winds and 
similar conditions for central/eastern VT. Meanwhile...progged 850mb 
temps surge btwn 14 and 15c today with 925mb values near 
16c...supporting highs mid 70s to near 80f western dacks from 
Edwards to Malone and downslope regions of the eastern CPV. Temps 
will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler eastern/central VT and SLV. 

As mid/upper level cyclonic circulation approaches...strong mid 
level height falls will occur with advancing cold front and embedded 
5h vort. This energy and lift combined with increasing low level 
925mb to 850mb jet of 45 to 55 knots will help advect some 
instability into our region by late this afternoon. The best 
elevated instability with most unstable cape values between 400-800 
j/kg will occur across the western dacks/southern SLV around 
00z...with values decreasing as you approach the cpv. Meanwhile...0 
to 6 km shear values are between 45 and 55 knots across the entire 
cwa this evening...associated with strong low to mid level wind 
fields. Given the instability and shear profiles (high shear/low 
instability environment...expecting a fast moving low top line of 
showers and embedded storms to impact our cwa between 22-04z this 
evening. A few bowing line segments within the line...will have the 
potential to mix the stronger winds aloft to the surface...creating 
the potential for isolated damaging winds. The greatest threat would 
be across the southern SLV and western dacks where instability and 
winds are the best. Thinking the convective line will weaken as it 
encounters greater stability across the cpv from cooler Lake 
Champlain waters. 

Based on day 1 outlook and expectations have mention gusty winds and 
brief heavy rainfall in the grids...along and west of the cpv this 
evening with pops between 90 and 100%. Difficult to determine qpf 
values with expected storm motions of 45 to 55 knots...but with pws 
values between 1.0 and 1.5...thinking heavy downpours will have the 
potential for a quick 0.50 to locally 1.0.  

Temps under modest cold air advection behind the boundary will cool 
into the l/m 40s mountains to mid/upper 50s cpv and lower ct river 
valley by 12z Tuesday. Expecting atmosphere to remain well mixed 
overnight with plenty of clouds...so much above normal temps 
prevail. Rain should become more terrain focused by morning...as 
better dynamics and ribbon of higher pws shift east of our cwa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 253 PM EDT Sunday...Showers will continue into Tuesday as the
upper low passes to the Northwest of the CWA. Isolated showers 
with some terrain enhanced heavier activity will linger through 
most of the day into the overnight hours. With the synoptic flow
oriented southwest to northeast expect channeled flow up the 
Saint Lawrence with gusty winds 20-30mph possible during the 
afternoon hours. As the upper low pushes further into Canada on 
Wednesday, terrain driven showers will continue to linger on 
through to the early evening.

Temperatures for Tuesday will range in the upper 50's to lower
60's while lows Tuesday night will be in the lower 40's in the
valleys and in the mid 30's on the higher locations. Wednesday
will cooler temps in the low 40's to low 50's as the flow shifts
to west-northwest during the day. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 PM EDT Sunday...Unsettled weather will continue
through the long term period and beyond. Things start quietly
Wednesday night and Thursday as weak ridging keeps things dry
before the next round of weather moves in late Thursday night
into Friday. A large upper trough brings with it a significant
change to the pattern going forward as a deepening upper low
slowly moves northeast from western KY/TN Thursday night to
western portion of our CWA Saturday evening. Eventually the low
closes off over the Northeast and Eastern Canada by later in the
weekend and remains well past then end of the long term period.
Expect quite a bit of clouds and precipitation during this
period as pronounced southerly flow gets established Thursday
night into Friday for the first surge of widespread rain
followed by stronger dynamic support enhancing precipitation
once again Saturday into Sunday. The clouds and precipitation
will limit temperatures from falling significantly and thus
looking at temperatures generally at or slightly below seasonal
normals. Looks like colder air does not move in until we get on
the backside of the upper low early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Challenging aviation forecast for the next
12 to 24 hours with changeable conditions. Currently a surface
warm front is draped from northern ny into parts of central VT
with occasional showers along and north of this feature. Given
northeast winds...expecting cigs to lower quickly tonight at mss
with ifr cigs by 08z. Also...with se upslope flow of maritime
moisture at mpv...thinking cigs continue to lower from currently
mvfr to ifr by 08z. Rest of our taf sites stay vfr with
occasional mvfr cigs/vis at rut/pbg. Sounding show ne flow with
low clouds likely most of Monday at mpv/mss. A sharp cold front
will produce a line showers with embedded rumbles of thunder
between 00z-06z this evening. Expect localized gusty winds and
brief heavy downpours with 15 to 30 mins of ifr possible.
Surface wind gusts to 45 knots possible in the heavier
convective element...especially at slk/mss around 00z. 

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely RA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Definite RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake wind advisory in effect for south winds 15 to 25 knots 
creating waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds are expected to relax for a 
period this afternoon as they shift to the southeast at 10 to 20
knots...before increasing this evening at 20 to 30 knots again 
ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...MV
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Taber

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