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SKIVT-L  May 2017, Week 4

SKIVT-L May 2017, Week 4

Subject:

Daily Morning Vermont Weather

From:

"Wesley A. Wright" <[log in to unmask]>

Reply-To:

Vermont Skiing Discussion and Snow Reports <[log in to unmask]>

Date:

Mon, 22 May 2017 06:50:05 -0400

Content-Type:

text/plain

Parts/Attachments:

Parts/Attachments

text/plain (258 lines)

Expires:201705222000;;017416
FPUS51 KBTV 220848
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017


VTZ006-222000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
445 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.TODAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Showers likely, mainly until midnight. Patchy
dense fog after midnight. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds around
10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the mid 60s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph
in the afternoon. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Light and variable
winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and
variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201705221100;;021689
ASUS41 KBTV 221030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-221100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    50  46  86 S12       30.09S                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  48  46  93 S9        30.16S                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  48  46  93 S3        30.12S FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  46  90 MISG      30.14S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  47  45  93 SE9       30.16S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    48  44  84 S12G21    30.13S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  48  45  89 SE6       30.15S                  
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      48  45  89 S5        30.18R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   48  46  91 S13G20    30.08R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  48  46  91 S12       30.11F                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  48  41  76 SE9       30.14S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A SE6         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  46  87 S20         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  46  87 S24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  46  87 S17         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;016614
FXUS61 KBTV 220828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers and overcast skies will linger today, as a
trough of low pressure exits the region. Cool temperatures today
will moderate toward normal as a weak ridge of high pressure
builds Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will enter the forecast
toward the end of the week with an area of low pressure moving
through the northeast Thursday and Friday.  resulting in 
relatively cool temperatures. Dry conditions return on Tuesday 
with a brief period of surface high pressure, before another low
pressure system brings more rain for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Monday...Radar trends showing rain ending west
to east here in the pre-dawn hours, tapering off to scattered 
showers. A short wave trough will move out of the northern Great
Lakes today, with a chance for one more round of showers late 
morning through afternoon in a band that will move west to east 
across the forecast area. With moist west to southwest flow at 
the low levels will see lingering rain chances over the higher 
terrain through the evening. Saturated layer in the low levels 
begins drying from the top down during the day however at 
inversion at about 5k feet today will trap moisture and keep us 
cloudy. Boundary layer winds of 20 to 30 knots at the inversion 
in the bufkit sounding, and KCXX vad winds have 40 knots at 2000
feet. This will be good for area wide winds 15 to 20 mph with 
surface gusts to 30 mph. Temps about 10 degrees below normal 
under the inversion, which will prevent warmer 850 mb temps from
mixing down. 

Monday night through Tuesday a weak surface ridge builds into
the region. Lowering inversion and light surface winds, along
with moist ground from recent rain will promote fog formation in
the usual areas. During this time flow aloft remains
southwesterly, and low pressure over the Great Lakes will ride
through the 500 mb ridge, suppressing the ridge & shifting it
east. The low passes well enough north that the surface ridge 
will win out with no rain during this time, but will still be 
quite a few clouds around. Tuesday about 10 degree warmer than 
monday with highs in the 60s/near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...Weak ridge both aloft and at the 
surface build across our cwa on Weds...ahead of developing full 
latitude trof over the MS River Valley. This ridging should keep
moisture and precip associated with weak low pres riding along 
the eastern seaboard to our east on Tuesday Night into 
Weds...with mainly a dry forecast anticipated. Progged 850mb 
temps between 9-11c...support highs mainly in the mid/upper 60s 
mountains to mid 70s warmer valleys on Weds. Mid/upper level 
closed cyclonic circulation over the MS River Valley slowly 
moves eastward toward the OH Valley on Weds Night....with 
southerly winds and increasing clouds. Given the slow movement 
of the closed system from the flow aloft...will keep Weds Night 
dry with temps mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Monday...A period of unsettled weather likely 
Thursday into Friday...with occasional rain showers and breezy 
southerly winds. Closed mid/upper level circulation will slowly 
track toward the Mid Atlantic States as 998mb low pres is 
located near Binghamton, NY by 00z Friday. The combination of 
strong southerly flow between 850 and 500mb will help advect 
deeper layer moisture into our cwa...with PWS >1.0 developing. 
The initial warm air advection surge will produce a period of 
showers on Thursday with qpf values generally between 0.10 and 
0.25. Some downslope shadowing/enhancement on southeast 925mb to
850mb of 30 to 40 knots is likely. Meanwhile...strong 5h energy
rounds mid/upper level trof base on Thursday Night...with 
system becoming vertically stacked over southern New England by 
Friday. The combination of easterly 925mb to 700mb flow and 
favorable energy aloft will produce another round of light to 
moderate rainfall on THursday night into Friday. Depending upon 
exact track of low pres...will determine placement of heaviest 
qpf...but nose of 850mb jet would suggest central/eastern VT. 
Thinking additional qpf will range between 0.25 western areas to
0.75 central/eastern VT...with around 0.50 in the CPV. Will 
mention likely pops for this period. 

Friday night into Saturday...system will slowly lift northeast with 
mainly light terrain driven/upslope showers persisting into 
Saturday. Difficult to time individual pieces of s/w energy in the 
northwest flow aloft...but thinking lingering mid level moisture and 
favorable upslope flow...some rain shower activity is possible into 
Saturday.

Sunday...Still some uncertainty on Sunday with timing of warm front 
feature and associated potential for showers. At this time...Sunday 
Morning looks dry...with a chance of showers increasing during the 
afternoon hours...along with increasing humidity levels. Any precip 
looks to be light and generally under 0.20". 

For temps...mainly the mid 60s to mid 70s For Thursday...but only 
mid/upper 50s to mid 60s with widespread clouds/rain showers for 
Friday with coolest values across the eastern mountains. Weekend 
temps mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s for highs and lows mid 40s to 
mid 50s. No major heat anticipated with general mid/upper level trof 
across the NE Conus this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Rain ending west to east but little effect
on flight categories with most visibilities and cigs VFR.
Ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR throughout the day, even as
rain dissipates low level moisture remains trapped below the
subsidence inversion under building high pressure aloft. low
level winds become gusty during the day out of the south with
gusts into 20-25kt range.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 425 am EDT Monday...A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect 
today to early evening. Winds have come up sharply on the lake
with 4 am EDT obs gusting to 31 knots. Air temperature has dropped to 
near water temperature and aided in mixing stronger winds down. 
Strongest wind, 20-30 knots, before noon but will remain above 
wind advisory threshold at 15-25 knots until this evening. 
Waves building to 2-4 feet, with highest waves are expected 
across the northern portion of the broad lake south of Grand 
Isle. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hanson
NEAR TERM...Hanson
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Hanson
MARINE...Team BTV

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